Translator: Ilze Garda Reviewer: Denise RQ
Hi! I'm Joe Strout.
I have two boys, 10 and 14 years old,
and the three of us have been working for the last year or so
on a video game about space settlement.
But it's not just a game.
In fact,
it's the most detailed and accurate space colony simulation program
that has ever been made.
We simulate everything from gravity, radiation, and rotational dynamics
down to individual buildings and traffic paths for the people inside.
All this is quite a lot of work as you can imagine.
But we feel it's important.
For my part, I'd say it's the most important project I've ever worked on.
I'd like to share with you some of the big ideas behind it
and why it matters so much.
In the early days of space exploration, things proceeded very rapidly.
Twelve years from Sputnik to the first Moon landing.
People assumed this pace of change will continue,
and we would soon be moving into space in large numbers.
Researchers looked carefully
whether the best site for a growing society is Earth,
the Moon, Mars, some other planet, or somewhere else entirely.
Surprisingly, they found the answer to be inescapable:
the best site is "somewhere else entirely".
Researchers concluded that the best place for humanity to live in space
is not on the surface of any planet or Moon,
but rather in free-floating orbital space colonies.
Numerous papers were written and studies were done working out the details.
This was just before the Space Shuttle
which was expected to dramatically lower the cost to orbit.
Cost analysis showed
that we could have orbital cities of tens of thousands of people,
perhaps by 1995 or so.
Well, obviously, that didn't happen.
The Shuttle program turned out to be quite a bit more expensive than expected,
and funding for the space program was reduced.
Also, the energy crisis of the 1970s temporarily abated, reducing the need
to look for clean, cheap energy sources such as space-space solar power.
So we retreated to low Earth orbit,
going around in circles for more than three decades.
But now things are changing again.
Private enterprises are entering the space business in an aggressive way
with ventures like SpaceX reducing the cost to orbit
down to the sort of levels we were expecting in the 70s.
Virgin Galactic is preparing to make routine passenger flights
to the edge of space.
Bigelow Aerospace has tested private inflatable space stations,
and several companies are now seriously proposing
to mine near-Earth asteroids.
So, amidst all this renewed activity,
people are starting to think again about colonizing space.
But what destinations do people think about?
The top of the list is, as always, Mars.
Mars holds a fascination for us,
and it has been a target of colonization dreams
since the early days of space exploration.
Next up is the Moon,
which has the unique advantage of being only a few days away all the time.
A few thinkers have considered Venus,
which might support floating cities at just the right level in the atmosphere
to have an Earth-like temperatures and pressures.
Then, so far down on the list
that most people don't even give it any thought, orbital space colonies.
So let's talk about those. How do they work?
And should we be giving them more attention?
First, let's look at gravity.
We know that one Earth gravity, like what we're all sitting in right now,
is good for us.
And we know from years of living aboard space stations,
that zero gravity is not healthy for us.
It causes bones and muscles to weaken, immune deficiency, heart problems,
and increased risk of things like kidney stones.
But what do we know about intermediate levels of gravity,
like the 1/3 G on Mars, or the 1/6 G of the Moon?
Well, here is what we know.
Nothing.
(Laughter)
Nobody has ever lived at any intermediate level of gravity
for more than a few days.
So we just don't know the effects of these G levels, even on adults.
Much less children,
who are likely to be more succeptible to developmental problems.
This is a big problem for planetary colonies
because you can't get Earth-like gravity
anywhere except Earth and, possibly, Venus.
But without children, you don't have a colony,
you have at best an outpost.
Orbital space colonies produce pseudogravity through rotation,
just like amusement park rides some of you may have tried.
The larger the radius of rotation,
the slower it can spin and still produce an Earth-like gravity.
One-kilometer-colony, for example, only needs to spin 1.3 times each minute
to produce one Earth gravity.
Of course, if we discover that less gravity is acceptable,
then we can either build smaller or spin slower.
In fact, one cool thing about an orbital colony
is you can have multiple, different levels of gravity at the same time.
Higher decks, closer to the spin axes, have proportionally less gravity.
So maybe if we'll find that elderly or injured patients are safer at 1/2 G,
they can just stay on a higher deck.
At the centre, you can have zero gravity sports and recreation,
and still be at home in time for dinner.
(Laughter)
OK, let's talk about radiation.
Free space is filled with radiation from the Sun,
and a much harder radiation in the form of cosmic rays
which stream in from all directions.
Here on Earth, we're protected largely by the Earth's magnetic field,
and secondarily, by the tons of air above our heads.
Mars, Venus and the Moon have no significant magnetic fields.
And apart from Venus, not much atmosphere either.
So every time you step outside there, you're dosing yourself with radiation.
You'd have to stay underground most of the time
to avoid problems like cataracts, cancer, and infertility.
Orbital space colonies are built outside-in.
We'll want a few meters of soil beneath our feet anyways
to support a robust biosphere;
that alone provides a substantial shielding against space radiation.
In fact, a colony in a low Earth orbit
would have less radiation inside than we experience here on Earth.
Outside of Earth's magnetic field, additional shielding might be necessary,
but it's still nicer to have that beneath your feet than over your head.
I'm going to touch only briefly on the day/night cycle.
Obviously, we evolved with the 24-hour-day.
The Martian day is very similar: 24.6 hours,
and this may be a part of our fascination with Mars.
A space colony would have exactly the day length that you want,
most likely, matching Earth's.
Daylight would either be sunlight,
reflected into the habitat through shield mirrors,
or artificial lighting,
but so far over head that it produces an outdoorsy daytime feel.
You can probably tell by now that I see a lot of advantages to orbital colonies.
As soon as you let go of the assumption we need a planetary surface to live on,
you quickly come to the conclusion
that orbital space colonies are the place to be.
In short, we can do better than Mars.
This is why my sons and I are building our game called "High Frontier".
We've built it to be as accurate as possible:
the physics, radiation levels, ecology, and everything else
is based on real science.
So players of the game aren't just playing,
they're exploring the vast design space
and finding solutions that might actually work.
At the very least, they're learning
about an alternative to planetary colonies.
And we hope that some day
some of those smart, educated players might help and make it actually happen.
When it does, it might unfold something like this.
The little green dots you see here represent orbital space colonies,
each one home to anywhere from 10,000 to 10 million men, women, and children.
Recent work, based in part upon "High Frontier",
has shown it's best to begin in low Earth orbit,
within the Earth's magnetic field.
But we'll expand from there to higher Earth orbits,
and then orbits near the Moon.
After that, colonies around Mars might make sense
with its two moons providing materials.
From there, we'll expand into the Asteroid Belt
with an estimated billion or so objects at least 100 meters in diameter,
which may not sound like much,
but a 100-meter-asteroid weights about 10 million metric tons.
In fact, experts estimate
there is enough material in the main Asteroid Belt alone
to built space colonies
with the combined area of 3,000 times the livable land area of Earth.
And then there are more asteroids in Jupiter's orbit
and, of course, the Jovian System itself
which has dozens of minor moons and rings massing about 10 billion tons.
After that we'll move to the Saturn System which has similar resources,
and just think of the view you'd have out the windows there.
And then onward to Uranus and Neptun.
And then the Kuiper Belt
with an estimated 70,000 dwarf planets out in the cold and dark.
The Solar System is vastly larger and richer than most people realize.
It's full of exactly the materials and energy that we need.
And remember, unlike past human migrations,
there are no ecosystems here, no natives that will be displaced,
these are sterile chunks of ice and rock,
just waiting for us to bring warmth, and light, and life.
This greening of the Solar System,
turning dead chunks of rock into millions of inside out worlds
full of trees, and birds, and bugs, and people,
this is the bright future I see for us.
And it all starts here: smart, enthusiastic kids playing a video game
where they get to decide how and where to built space colonies,
how to run them when they are built,
how to balance the ecosystem, manage resources and budgets,
and educate each generation.
That is why we're building "High Frontier",
and that is why it's not just a a game.
Thank you.
(Applause)