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Guys, I'm coming to you a little bit late today.
I forgot to make a video this morning playing an exciting baseball game.
We were down 11-6 in the last inning, and we came back and won.
Absolutely phenomenal!
Eh!
My kid's batting, like, 800, but, nah!
Digress, digress.
So, here is the situation, guys.
Situation is, right now, we are at a very pivotal point for Bitcoin.
Today.
Today is a very pivotal point.
We are teetering right now
on a 10th week in a row of a red candle for Bitcoin, the most in history.
I believe the record before now is seven. We're up to nine now.
And you got to wonder, how long is this bearish action going to last?
Now,
today, I think the close is at six o'clock Eastern Standard Time, I think.
Maybe it's seven. Maybe it's eight.
I don't pay that much attention to the exact time.
It changes, of course, when there's daylight savings time,
so I think maybe it's seven, six, somewhere around there.
But the important part, guys, to watch is where we end up at.
We've seen a pump today, so now we are up to $30,300.
If we close below-- I think it's $29,464, we would get a red candle.
Guys, we need a green relief candle for Bitcoin.
And I really cannot understate this.
I am now believing, with every day that goes by,
with all the stuff that we are seeing,
that there is a strong chance,
I'm not going to call it 50/50,
I'm not going to say most likely,
but there's a strong chance Bitcoin has already bottomed at 24-- or $25,500.
I told you guys we are putting some stuff together a couple months ago
that was indicating around a $25,000 low for Bitcoin for this cycle,
and then we got the dramatic drop,
and, you know, we went down to $25,500 in one day.
And so that really threw things off for us.
But that was the target that we were kind of looking at for a low.
Now,
we've been on record as saying that there's a chance
85% drawdown we've seen in the last two cycles
if we got it again and put Bitcoin $10,300.
So I don't want to fill your dreams with hopium and say, "Oh! We've definitely bottomed!"
Still strong chance we go to the 200-week moving average, which is around $22,000,
but, guys, with every passing day,
I become more and more convinced
that the top of this market was in April of 2021.
It was not in November.
That was a false pump.
That was an exaggerated dead cat bounce.
There is so much evidence to point to that
including the Pi Cycle top indicator,
the Colin Talks Crypto--
you know, fear and greed index number is similar number to that.
When we look at the retail sentiment,
when we look at the volume
that was in April and May,
Elon Musk was pretty much the trigger of the end.
If that were the case,
Bitcoin traditionally bottoms 12-14 months after the top,
that would put the top-- or the bottom right in this timeframe.
And if we think about how long it took Bitcoin to turn around after it bottomed,
to start getting back up to the 10,000 number and higher,
you know, it took a considerable amount of time.
Something to think about.
The bottom of Bitcoin was in December of 2012.
In-- excuse me, 2018.
In the summer of 2019,
seven months later,
we got a very large exaggerated pump that ended up going to another drawdown.
If that were the case,
then that would mean maybe, towards the end of this year,
we see one big massive pump, maybe following the midterm elections,
before reco-- you know, returning back to lower prices.
One thing in the last cycle that we did have going for us was the pandemic.
The March--
I think it was March 12th,
that crash,
that's unlike anything we've seen in the history of Bitcoin
because that was a larger macroeconomic event
that caused the price to plummet.
But here's the important thing I want you to take away from this video.
Everybody out there is saying price of Bitcoin is going sub $20,000.
They're saying altcoins are going to get gutted.
They're going to get murdered.
They're going down much, much, much further.
And it's not necessarily the case.
There's a good chance.
I don't want to negate that and say that's not going to happen.
But how do you take that information
in a scenario where we may get one more large drop
and one where maybe we've already bottomed?
How do you take that information and do something with it?
Well, guys, it's all about scaling in.
I'm telling you,
right now, you should be scaling back in if you've had money on the sidelines,
but not the majority.
Now, if we start going back up and let's say you didn't accumulate enough,
well, what do you do?
Well, you've just got to pick entry points and move in.
But right now is a solid time to be lining up,
especially when you think about the fact
we haven't had this much bearish action in a row ever in the history of Bitcoin.
Great chance we get a massive relief rally soon.
So even if we do eventually go back down and make new lows,
maybe this is a good spot to start moving in.
Check out Frankie Candles' channel.
Maybe a good time to start trading.
You go to frankiecandles.com.
Look at all his trading tools and, you know, follow him as well, his YouTube channel.
For maybe some, you know, some leverage trading longs here.
Look for some short-term price action and a relief rally.
We do believe there's a very good possibility that that does happen.
But this is the important thing, guys.
People are telling you,
"Whatever you do, don't scale in! Don't scale in! Going much lower!"
There's a chance we have bottomed.
You have to take that into consideration.
It's not most likely.
I still think most likely we still do have more to the downside.
But if I were to tell you a 60/40 scenario,
where 60% we go down, 40% we've already bottomed,
well, 4 out of 10 times is a lot of times for you to miss out on all the possible accumulation.
Now, when I say accumulate,
we're talking Bitcoin.
We're talking Ethereum.
We're talking XRP.
We're talking Cardano.
Maybe Polkadot.
We're not talking about anything outside of that.
We should not be going to low-priced altcoins.
We should not be looking at 100X coins right now.
This is not the time for that.
That will be much later in the cycle.
So alright, guys.
That's all we got for today.
I hope you guys enjoyed this video.
Take that information. Do something positive with it.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.