Is the world getting better or worse?
Is globalization good or bad?
Is the way we relate to each other changing?
These seem like simple questions, but their answers conceal very divergent ways by which
we understand our world.
For those who regularly follow this channel, I am convinced that you know that we are quite
optimistic about our planet.
Here at VisualPolitik we are convinced, and the analytical data seems to corroborate it,
that we live in a world that is improving and will be better in the future…
However, that does not mean that there are no problems, obviously there are, and some
of them are serious as this:
“We are facing the largest humanitarian crisis since the creation of the United Nations
[in 1945].
(...) Now, more than 20 million people across four countries face starvation and famine”.
- Stephen O’Brien, the UN under secretary-general for humanitarian affairs
Yes, of course, there are still many problems on our planet.
Well, within recent years, globalization has become in most cases like the culprit of everything,
and the scapegoat for all our sins.
Unemployment, relocation, poverty, inequality ... For many people, these are the consequences
of a process of global integration ,which more and more think has gone too far.
The numbers are quite clear, every time a survey is done, most people think that the
world is getting worse, and this is happening in a way because of globalization.
Want an example?
In 2016, a study published by The Economist found that less than half of Americans, Brits
and French believed that this whole process was a good thing.
And, as we have seen here at VisualPolitik, all this growing unpopularity of globalization
has been exploited practically in all corners of the world by all kinds of politicians.
Politicians who oppose immigration, free trade and ultimately, everything that is different.
However, on this occasion it is not a matter of political color.
In both right-wing parties and left-wing parties, we find this type of discourse...
Perhaps a good example was the elections in the United States, where we saw how both Donald
Trump and the Democratic primary candidate, Bernie Sanders, defended in one way or another
this sort of speech, which we can summarize in one sentence as:
“Globalization is destroying
our society”.
Together with political movements, that in recent years have spread like wildfire, a
rumor has also emerged, a widespread perception that says that globalization is stopping.
So, dear viewer, I think the question we have to answer here is this: What is really happening
with globalization?
Are we facing a paradigm change?
Well, let’s see.
THE BRAKE
For the last seven decades, since the Second World War, globalization has accelerated constantly
and with it the movement of people, goods and capital throughout the world.
For all these years, many political barriers to trade have been eliminated.
For a company to have factories or sell products in a country produced thousands of kilometers
away has become totally normal.
Suddenly, wherever you live, eating sushi, pizza, nachos with guacamole.
or drinking a Heineken became the most normal thing in the world.
Almost a tradition in itself!
There were those who even predicted that national borders would soon be history...
However, perhaps the culminating moment of all this culture occurred in December 2001,
when China joined the World Trade Organization.
That is, when China really integrated into the world economy and become something like
the factory of the world.
However, with the financial crisis, suddenly things started to change...
According to the data, between 2011 and 2015, the value of the world good’s exports plummeted
by 10% according to the WTO.
And not only that, according to McKinsey, the annual capital movement, this is stocks,
bonds, foreign investments or loans, collapsed more than 60% between 2007 and 2015.
In addition, the crisis, and all those politicians who consider that trade is a zero-sum game,
where some win and others always lose, have resulted in recent years in protectionist
regulations becoming fashionable once again.
“Business leaders are scrambling to adjust to a world few imagined possible just a year
ago.
The myth of a borderless world has come crashing down.”
- Pankaj Ghemawat
According to the "Global Trade Alert", a panel that monitors how governments take measures
that affect trade, since 2008, more than 8,000 protectionist regulations have been put in
place.
Well, wait a moment, because, although it is seems true that in recent years international
trade has lost strength, this is not entirely true.
It is not true for two main reasons.
First, instead of seeing what has happened since the crisis, let’s take a slightly
longer period of time, for example since the year 2000.
If we look at what is happening in the 21st century - it so happens that both trade and
investment have grown a lot.
And, second, you know what?
In 2017, globalization is returning with strength.
That's right in recent years there has been a revolution that not even Donald Trump or
Vladimir Putin has been able to stop, a revolution that will make our world look much smaller.
(THE DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION)
World trade has been around for a number of years, but now international data traffic
has exploded.
In the United States alone, 80 terabytes of data enter and leave the country every minute,
a gigantic number that is 8 times the content of the Library of Congress of the United States
- one of the largest libraries in the world!
In just a single minute!
Emails, Skype calls, social networks...
according to McKinsey, international data flow is more important to the economy than
the trade of goods.
For example, Facebook has just exceeded the 2 billion active users and, our favorite platform,
YouTube, breaks its own historical records every year.
They may seem too little, but the truth is that the business they generate is huge.
Take another example, 8 out of 10 readers of the Financial Times - one of the most important
economic newspapers in the world - are from other countries than the UK.
We also have Amazon or Alibaba, which are full of entrepreneurs from all backgrounds
all working to sell their products.
In addition, today we can hire designers or buy video games through online platforms ... And
this, friends, has only just begun.
According to Oxford Economics and HSBC, international trade in services will triple in the next
15 years.
Just take a look at this graphic:
An interesting result, don't you think?
Well, the fact is that if we consider all this, it turns out that the global connection,
the degree of integration that exists in the world today is higher than in 2007... just
before the outbreak of the great global crisis.
The truth is that for each day that passes by, we live in a much more connected world.
I'm sorry for those who do not like this, but globalization is not going to go away,
it's only going to grow.
In fact, we may now pose a question: Is it possible that despite politicians like Donald
Trump, we are at the door of a new boost for global integration?
(A NEW SUNRISE?)
It is possible that if you asked us how we see the future of globalization and free trade,
we would respond negatively.
As we have seen in this video, that is what most people think.
However, surprisingly, governments do not seem to share that opinion.
In Latin America, for example, the breaking down of tariffs and restrictions is becoming
fashionable again...
"Argentina and Chile sign the most ambitious free trade agreement in 20 years."
El País.
Moscow took the lead in the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, which aimed
to improve the economic status of the countries that make up the so-called “Russian area
of ​​influence”.
Now Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are all part of this alliance.
The European Union itself has also launched its most ambitious free trade program yet.
Yes, that’s, so given all the anti-globalisation talk, you might be surprised.
Well, you should not be, the European Union has just signed a trade agreement with Canada,
and its about to do the same with Singapore and Vietnam, and it has made progress in negotiations
with Mercosur as well as beginning to negotiate with Australia and New Zealand.
Even China wants to strengthen its commercial commitment.
In fact, it is demanding in the World Trade Organization, that it be recognized as a market
economy…
You see, when in 2001 China joined the WTO, it did so under its economic status, not market
status, and it was agreed that 15 years later this condition would be reviewed.
And now, that time has come...
We are talking about a technicality that allows the rest of the WTO countries such as the
United States or EU members to impose protectionist measures in their relations with China.
For example, anti-dumping measures, or to restrict imports of cars manufactured in the
Asian giant.
If China achieves its purpose and is recognized as a full market economy - and that is something
that will happen eventually - we will see how its commercial relations with the rest
of the world are going to have another important upturn.
It is true that people listen a lot to protectionist politicians, and critics of globalization,
but events may take other paths.
In any case, we think this is a good thing.
Thanks to globalization and the integration of peoples, in the last 25 years we have lived
through the period in which poverty has been reduced the most in the entire of human history.
More than a billion people have escaped extreme need, the middle classes have grown as never
before, the average life expectancy has gone up and up, and even global inequality has
been reduced.
So, anyway, let's hope that the next 25 years are going to be even better; and that we recognize
that there are political, cultural and social differences that we shouldn’t see as a threat.
Finally, over to you, what do you think about increasingly globalisation?
Leave your answer in the comments as well as in this survey.
So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did, and don’t forget to
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And don’t forget to check out the Reconsider Media podcasts - they provided the vocals
in this episode that aren’t mine.
And as always, I’ll see you in the next video.