It seems safe to say that the 2020 presidential election did not turn
out the way that President Donald Trump wanted.
Since Election Day, Trump has spent his days tweeting about how he didn't actually lose the
election, and if he did, it's because it was "rigged." Trump has attempted to mount legal
challenges in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, while Trump's personal lawyer
Rudy Giuliani has spent his days claiming without evidence that the election was marred by fraud.
Trump's tactics are unlikely to earn him any new supporters,
nor are they likely to actually change the outcome of the election. President-elect
Joe Biden will take the oath of office on January 20th, 2021, and his administration will begin.
However, since Trump has only served one term, it is possible for him to run again in 2024.
This possibility is not lost on the 45th commander-in-chief, who, according to the
New York Times, is considering announcing another run upon leaving the White House.
If Trump did announce a run in 2024, would he actually stand a chance of winning? Only one
president has been voted out of office and then gone on to serve another term,
but political and corporate advisor Dr. Reneé Carr told The List that
President Donald Trump may have a chance of becoming the second. According to Carr,
"For 2024, President Trump’s chances of being reelected will remain high — mainly because
Trump will continue to stoke the emotions and energy of his loyal voter base through claims
of election fraud. By his continued accusations of the election being 'stolen' from him, this
prevents psychological closure of the election for both himself and those who voted for him."
Carr said this could make his famously loyal base even more loyal, adding,
"The discomfort of not having closure accompanied with a promoted belief that
an injustice has occurred will intensify his voters’ loyalty."
That being said, the next four years are an open book, and the country has no
idea what the political climate of 2024 might look like. Carr told The List,
"However, if President-elect Biden can provide significant
economic recovery to America — especially to families of auto industry workers
and other blue-collar occupations, as well as provide meaningful and immediate tax cuts
for small businesses — Biden could greatly decrease Trump's chances of being reelected."
If Americans have learned anything over the course of Trump's presidency,
it's to expect the unexpected.
"I am the chosen one! Somebody had to do it!"
Whether or not Donald Trump's hypothetical third run for president is successful or not, the very
idea still presents challenges to his party. While others have tried to run for president
again after losing as the incumbent, only Grover Cleveland has been successful. Oftentimes,
they end up running as third party candidates, splitting the votes for their former party.
In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt lost the Republican nomination to sitting-President William Taft.
Roosevelt ran under the Progressive Party instead, soundly defeating Taft in both the popular vote
and Electoral College, but still losing to the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson.
Martin Van Buren tried a similar tactic in 1848, running as a candidate for the Free Soil Party,
which helped carry Whig Party candidate Zachary Taylor into the White House.
The fear is the same for Republicans if Trump attempts another run in 2024,
according to a recent opinion piece by Joshua Spivak in Newsweek. Spivak notes that there
are certainly other Republican candidates who are already eying the opportunity to
run in the next election, and Trump would still have to campaign against them in the primary.
If he did lose the primary and chose to run as a third-party candidate, the fear for Republicans,
per Spivak, is that his supporters will still vote for him over the Republican nominee,
essentially handing the election to the Democrats.
If Trump chooses to run for president again, and makes that declaration
years in advance, it could freeze the Republican primary from happening
in any meaningful way. Alex Isenstadt of Politico notes,
"[Trump's] flirtation with a 2024 bid ensures he'll remain the dominant
force in the party and cast a shadow over anyone looking to succeed him."
While not an official rule, the norm in modern party politics is
to support the incumbent candidate if they choose to run for another term,
especially when that candidate is the sitting president. Even if Republican candidates did
attempt a run against Trump in 2024, it may be difficult to distinguish themselves and build
a network of donors to stage an effective run. As Republican Sen. Marco Rubio told Fox News,
"If [Trump] runs in 2024, he'll certainly be the front-runner and will probably be the nominee."
It's impossible to predict what's going to happen within the next four years,
but one thing is for sure: truly anything could happen.
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