We begin a discussion on an issue making headlines. The number of fatalities caused by COVID-19
have been declining, but new infections continue to occur.
Nevertheless, governments and their populations have been itching to ease restrictions.
Countries have been loosening quarantine measures and letting non-essential businesses reopen,
but there are concerns about a second wave. South Korea, Singapore and China, which contained
the virus at an early stage, have recently experienced a resurgence of cluster infections.
The WHO warned Europe this week that it should brace itself for a stronger and potentially
deadlier second wave of COVID-19. To discuss what a second wave would look like
and if it's inevitable,... we connect with Professor Peter Collignon at Australian National
University Medical School, who is also an infectious Diseases physician and microbiologist
at Canberra Hospital. We also have joining us, Dr. Bruce Y. Lee,
Professor of Health Policy and Management at City University New York, who is a systems
modeler and a Senior Contributor for Forbes. Prof. Collignon: South Korea, which eased
social distancing requirements this month saw a spike in cases linked to nightclubs
in Seoul. We even saw a fourth-hand transmission take place. Singapore, Hong Kong and China
have also seen a resurgence of cases. This has given rise to worries about a dreaded
second wave. Is this really the making of a second wave, and what lessons can we take
away from
the sudden surge of cases? Prof. Lee: The
Trump
administration has been adamant about the necessity of reopening economies and your
Health Secretary Alex Azar said that if lockdowns continue, it would hurt the capacity to address
other health needs. But hospitals are already overwhelmed as it is and a report you recently
published in Health Affairs shows how medical costs could surge to the hundreds of billions
of dollars if coronavirus infections soar significantly. Is it wise, then, for governments
to push for business as usual for hte sake of the economy?
Prof. Collignon: Based on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, some have
projected we'll see a stronger, a more deadly version of the virus in the second wave, especially
in European countries. Does this mean more infections and fatalities will occur? And
in countries like South Korea and Singapore, where few people have immunity, would a second
wave be more severe? Prof. Lee: If the number of cases grows, how
will this affect the response to a second wave? It seems each country or region has
its own standard of easing lockdowns. THe WHO has called for a scientific, or evidence-based
approach to easing restrictions. Should the reproduction number be the standard-bearer?
Prof. Collignon: In the midst of these concerns, students in Europe are going back to school
and South Korea is also having high school students resume offline classes from Wednesday.
There seems there are mixed opinions about this.
What does science tell us about how children's chances of being infected? What precautions
should be taken as schools reopen? Prof. Lee: How can governments be better prepared
than they were the first time? And until a vaccine is out and ready for use, can we expect
to see repeated waves of lockdowns with a resurgence of infections?
That's all
we have time
for today
but
it's been an informative discussion. Thank you
for joining us Professor Peter Collignon and Professor Bruce Y. Lee from Canberra and New
York.