Let’s talk about the Gulf going nuclear.
The United Arab Emirates is about to flick the switch
on a nuclear power plant.
It’s the first of its kind in the Arab world.
And not everyone thinks it’s a good idea.
So why has the UAE decided to go nuclear?
What are the risks?
And why is a nuclear research reactor in Saudi Arabia
adding to the nerves?
Chernobyl and Fukushima
they don’t exactly make nuclear reactors an easy sell.
What does help — a little
is that nuclear power plants generate energy
without adding to global warming.
So first up here are the basics on how it works.
At the core of the process is nuclear fission.
When atoms split they release energy.
That energy boils water which creates steam
which then spins a turbine to generate electricity.
It’s technology that originated in the 1950s.
And it’s evolved since then
but it’s still risky and it’s really expensive.
Especially when you compare it to
renewable energy like wind and solar.
It’s why many countries seem to be
powering down from nuclear energy.
In 1996 global electricity generated from nuclear
peaked at nearly 18%.
By 2018 it fell to 10%.
And in the Gulf other sources of energy
seem like no-brainers.
There’s plenty of sunshine, wind
and massive reserves of oil and gas.
Many countries in the region are trying
to diversify away from fossil fuels.
The UAE already has one of the world’s largest solar plants
the Noor Abu Dhabi with more than 3 million panels.
And the UAE is pushing ahead with the Arab world’s
first nuclear power plant.
The Barakah facility is in the emirate of Abu Dhabi
the UAE’s capital.
Construction has been going on since 2012
and it’s been a long road of delays and overspending
by billions of dollars.
But now it’s nearly ready to plug into the grid.
In March the first of four reactors
was loaded with fuel rods.
Once all four reactors are online Barakah is expected
to generate up to 25% of the UAE’s electricity.
But keeping the peace in this part of the world isn’t easy.
It’s a tough neighbourhood.
You’ve got Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel
a triumvirate of sworn enemies
and plenty of other rivalries too.
That’s made it hard to build trust.
And when it comes to nuclear capability
there’s a long history of secrecy here.
Iraq and Libya both had covert nuclear programmes.
Algeria built a nuclear research reactor
before inviting inspectors in.
Saudi Arabia is building a research reactor too
but we’ll get to that later.
Iran’s also been accused of secrecy.
It’s been cast by Western countries as
the region’s nuclear bad boy trying to develop a bomb.
Iran has always denied that but in 2002
it did acknowledge it was building nuclear facilities
that it hadn’t declared.
In 2007 Israel bombed what it says was
a nuclear reactor in Syria but only owned up to it in 2018.
And then there’s Israel itself which refuses
to confirm or deny that it has nuclear weapons
though most experts reckon it has at least 90 warheads.
Safe to say that suspicions over nuclear ambitions
in the region don’t come out of nowhere.
Without getting too in the weeds on this
the leap from producing nuclear power
to making a weapon isn’t a big one.
To make electricity you have to enrich
natural uranium to 3-5%.
To make a bomb it has to be over 90%
the higher the better.
But the facility needed for both is the same.
Now the UAE has worked hard to reassure people
it’s not interested in building a bomb.
The country signed an agreement with
the International Atomic Energy Agency
over a decade ago to allow inspectors in on short notice.
And in March the UAE’s ambassador to the US
reiterated the country’s peaceful intentions
saying it won’t enrich its own uranium
or reprocess spent nuclear fuel.
Here’s what he said in the Wall Street Journal:
“New and better rules have delivered a new, huge source
of clean power and reduced the risk
of nuclear proliferation.”
But experts we spoke to still feel the idea of turning to
nuclear energy just doesn’t add up.
It’s not just about fears over a potential nuclear weapon.
What if Barakah gets attacked? Again.
The UAE is fighting a war in Yemen.
Here’s what happened in 2017.
The UAE has denied it’s been hit by a cruise missile
fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The group’s television service says they were targeting
the Al Barakah nuclear reactor.
Firing the cruise missile at the UAE
is an important qualitative leap.
The idea is that targeting a nuclear power plant
is like a nuclear weapon attack.
And attacks on nuclear facilities in this region
have happened before.
Last September those same Houthi rebels
who claimed to have targeted Barakah
set their sights on Saudi Arabia.
Eighteen drones and seven cruise missiles
hit Saudi oil facilities, temporarily knocking out
more than half of the kingdom’s oil production.
You can see why people think
it could happen to the Barakah reactors.
So they might be vulnerable to attack.
But what if something just goes wrong?
The Barakah facility has been built by a South Korean
Company called KEPCO that’s never
exported a reactor before.
And the UAE got a good deal.
KEPCO’s bid for the contract was reportedly
about 30% cheaper than the next lowest bid.
Paul Dorfman actually put together
a safety report about Barakah last year.
He compiled a list of concerns including the discovery of
cracks in the containment buildings of all four reactors.
And UAE officials only acknowledged it
a year after they were found.
They say they’ve been fixed
but concerns about the reactors don’t stop there.
And if something does go wrong
what happens to that radioactive material?
Well experts who’ve done modelling for oil spills
seem to agree that what spills in the Gulf stays in the Gulf.
Al Jazeera tried to ask officials from the UAE’s nuclear
and energy bodies about some of these concerns.
But they never got back to us.
And that brings us back to the issue of openness.
Not just from the UAE but across the region.
Take Saudi Arabia for instance.
It’s building a nuclear research reactor which some see as
the first step in any nuclear programme.
And the kingdom says it plans to build
16 nuclear facilities by 2040.
But they are moving ahead without IAEA inspectors
checking the design and build.
And that takes on more significance
given the kingdom’s position on Iran.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are allies.
There’s no suspicion of a nuclear arms race there.
But there are other countries that don’t get along.
And anything can happen.
Whether it’s an accident or something more sinister.
Low probability but high impact.
Nuclear energy anywhere carries risks.
And now it’s a reality on the Arabian Peninsula.
This episode is based on research by Patricia Sabga
who's the managing business editor at Al Jazeera Online.
You can find her work on our website.
I’ll see you all next week.