Welcome to another video from ExplainingComputers.com, and to my annual quantum computing update.
Specifically in this video, I’m going to provide a brief overview of quantum computing,
I'm going to report on some recent developments, and I’m going to highlight a potential future
killer application.
Or in other words, I’m going to address the three key questions “What is quantum
computing?”, “Who is creating it?”, And “why do we need it in the first place?”
Conventional or “classical” computers are built from billions of transistors that
are turned ‘on’ or ‘off’ to represent a value of either ‘1’ or ‘0’.
In turn, this allows classical computers to store and process data using ‘binary digits’
or ‘bits’.
In contrast, quantum computers process information using ‘quantum bits’ or ‘qubits’ that
can be represented by superconducting electronic circuits.
Due to the strange laws of quantum mechanics, qubits can exist in more than one state -- or
‘superposition’ -- at exactly the same point in time.
This allows a qubit to assume a value of ‘1’, or ‘0’, or both of these numbers simultaneously.
In turn, this enables a quantum computer to process a far higher number of data possibilities
than a classical computer.
In addition to assuming superpositions, qubits can become ‘entangled’.
‘Entanglement’ is another quantum mechanical property, and means that the state of one
qubit can depend on the state of another.
This is useful and powerful, as it means that observing one qubit can reveal the state of
its unobserved pair.
Creating, sustaining, manipulating and error correcting qubits is very hard indeed.
But significant progress does continue to be made.
So let’s now turn to the work of today’s quantum computing pioneers.
One of quantum computing’s trailblazers is IBM with its initiative called IBM Q. Since
2016, IBM has provided access to cloud-based quantum hardware, and in January 2019 unveiled
the IBM Q System One, which it describes as the first integrated quantum computing system
for commercial use.
Also advancing quantum computing are Intel, who in January 2018 announced a quantum processor
called 'Tangle Lake'.
According to the company’s website, Intel is targeting production-level quantum computing
within ten years, and expects the technology to start to enter its “commercial phase”
around 2025.
Google is also developing quantum hardware and software, and in June 2019 Hartmut Neven,
the director of its Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab, reported that the power of Google’s
quantum processors is now increasingly at a doubly exponential rate.
This has already been termed “Nevan’s Law”, and suggests that we may reach the
point of quantum supremacy -- where a quantum computer can outperform any classical computer
-- by the end of 2019.
Also in the game, in February 2019, Microsoft announced the Microsoft Quantum Network to
advance quantum computing, which formalized a previous coalition of partnerships.
In May 2019, Microsoft also reported that it will open source its Quantum Development
Kit, which includes its Q# quantum computing programming language and compiler, as well
as quantum computing simulators.
Another long-term quantum computing pioneer is D-Wave Systems, which in October 2018 launched
a cloud-based, quantum application environment called Leap.
This provides real-time access to a D-Wave 2000Q quantum computer, and in March 2019
was expanded to provide access in Japan and across Europe.
Other quantum computing pioneers include Alibaba in China, who in March 2018 launched its ‘superconducting
quantum computing cloud’.
Also offering a “quantum cloud platform” are Rigetti, with other pioneering quantum
computing pure-plays including Quantum Circuits and IonQ.
Hopefully, what this brief summary has demonstrated, is how quantum hardware, software and service
provision are now advancing at pace.
It’s therefore wise for us to question just what quantum computers are going to be used for
Quantum computing’s first killer application is likely to be quantum molecular modelling,
also known as quantum chemistry.
And this probably sounds rather abstract, rather removed from traditional, everyday
computing.
But, if you give me a few minutes, I’ll explain why quantum molecular modelling will
help to move computing into a New Age.
Now, molecules are multiple atoms bonded together.
So, for example, a water molecule contains two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom.
Or, a caffeine molecule contains eight carbon atoms, together with ten hydrogen, four nitrogen,
and two oxygen atoms.
So, why am I telling you this?
Well, even though a caffeine molecule for example looks fairly simple, a conventional
computer cannot model cannot model one at the quantum level.
Now clearly, we do have software that allows us to build models of molecules -- such as
the MolView package we’re looking at right now.
And, some existing packages can also simulate the basic chemistry of how molecules behave
and interact.
But none can accurately model the sub-atomic particles inside each atom due to the extraordinary
number of data possibilities that would be involved.
And, this means that we’ve yet to build an accurate simulation of any molecular system
using a conventional computer, and we probably never will.
Because molecules are quantum in nature, the hardware required to simulate them also
needs to be quantum.
And this is why quantum computers will become so important.
We also already know that quantum molecular simulation can work.
For example, in 2017, some IBM engineers reported in Nature that they’d successfully used
a quantum computer to model a beryllium hydride molecule.
And then, in July 2018, this paper was published in the journal Physical Review X, again reporting
on success using quantum computers to run molecular simulations that could not be run
on a conventional, on a classical computer.
There’s also now a start-up company in Germany called HQS Quantum Simulations, which is developing
software for the quantum simulation of molecules and processes in order to “disrupt the way
in which specialty chemicals, materials, agrochemicals and drugs are developed”.
Today, we cannot accurately simulate what is going on in a cup of coffee.
And yet, ten or twenty years from now, we could be using quantum computers to run very
complex molecular simulations.
And this would transform our understanding of chemistry, physics biology.
And in turn it would change our practice of engineering and medicine.
Imagine in the future if you got ill, a future doctor or AI could build a quantum simulation
of your whole anatomy, your whole body.
And then also build quantum simulations of different drugs, and test those drugs in a
quantum simulation of your body.
And they could maybe test thousands of drugs over a simulated period of time of many weeks,
and they could do all of that in a few microseconds.
That would be truly revolutionary.
And it won’t just be medicine.
We’ll be able to use quantum molecular simulations to simulate things like the climate, predict
the weather, things like that, develop new materials, test out new ways of building things,
all those kinds of things.
So, it is the potential to use quantum computers to build accurate simulations of the physical
world, that will make them so revolutionary.
To put what I’ve just been talking about in context, let’s turn to a model that I
call the Five Ages of Computing.
This was introduced in my book “Digital Genesis”, and signals how the initial historical
phases of “Early Computing” and “Personal Computing” had a focus on using computers
to perform computation.
But then, around 20 years ago, we entered the “Network Computing Age”, in which
computing has additionally been focused on communication.
However, today, we are entering the “Cognitive Computing Age”, with the focus expanding
once more to include the use of computers for prediction, in addition to communication
and computation.
Cognitive computing is primarily associated with the rise of artificial intelligence.
And, certainly, it will be technologies like neural networks will allow computers to learn
from sample data and to predict appropriate responses when presented with data they’ve
not encountered before.
However, as I’ve just discussed, quantum molecular modelling will also prove an important
aspect of the Cognitive Computing Age.
This is because quantum simulations are likely to be used to vastly increase our understanding
-- or our cognition -- of the physical world, and in turn to improve our lives based on
quantum predictions of how complex molecular systems will behave.
Looking further ahead, the final computing age of “Cyborg Fusion” involves the physical
synthesis of human beings and machines.
This I’ve discussed in a video on my ExplainingTheFuture channel, and is likely to rely on quantum
molecular simulation to assist in the redesign and proactive evolution of ourselves.
Quantum molecular modelling is very different to most of today’s computing applications.
This said, across history, the most revolutionary new technologies have always been used to
achieve new things, rather than to do old things in new ways.
And, it’s therefore very reasonable to predict that most of tomorrow’s quantum computers
will spend most of their time executing quantum algorithms that most people today cannot even imagine.
If you want to know more about the future of computing, you can look in my book “Digital Genesis”.
But now that’s it for another video.
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