Can you tell us a bit more about why you got that number?
Why are we still thinking about, you know, transactions might contract here
for next year? I mean, a lot of what we saw, what we
expect to see for the full year for this year would be transaction volume is down
about 25 percent for the full year. We saw we had a strong start to the
year. The year slowed down and we expect it to
be slower at the start of next year, but then begin to pick up.
So there's still positivity out there.
We've got gap between buyers and sellers expectations.
Okay. I'm just.
Is there any specific part of the real estate market that's at least right now
stands out as perhaps an out performs next year or does better than the rest?
We're talking right now logistics office, what have you.
Take your pick. Right.
This is your expertise. Sure.
I think I think that I think the key one that will stand that will be the health
sector. And we saw volumes.
They tell us that sector up by about 10 to 15 percent this year.
We expect them to be up by around about 5, 6 percent next year.
And really off the back of of what we've seen globally with the tell as people
and countries so open back up. We essentially we've seen business
travel, comeback in leisure travel come back when that's happened.
If you look at some markets in the states and that and elsewhere globally,
we've seen and read PA and also occupancy exceed those the levels of the
last three quarters. So we're right on the step in that
sector. What does it mean for rates?
I mean, I think I think it is positive in the longer term.
I think the broader real estate sector, those challenges out there at the moment
and some more longer term, I think across all of the sectors, we look at
them pretty positively, I think in the short term.
And when it comes to the sectors that are positive, some tailwinds buying
them, whether that be data centers or logistics and multi-family as well.
Those visas that the sectors to watch and each other, we have exposures.
Okay. What about the vexed topic about
property in China? Here, yeah, we've got a reopening story
that of course is going to be a bumpy road.
How you looking at things then? You know, you can also split it between
residential, commercial and retail. I think in the short term, the other
will continue to be challenges for China.
I think with China opening up thoughtfully and domestically, that will
Bill Ford well for the retail sector. However, there's likely to be some bumps
in the road and if we have outbreaks of Covid or any other sort of lockdowns.
But that will bode well for retail and similarly for the office sector.
Longer term, I think if we look more broadly at China, that opening up story
is a really positive story. I think when it comes to the
international investors, as I heard you mentioned in the show earlier, we've
definitely seen some distress in that the investment market when it comes to
China for the property sector that say exactly some opportunity for
international investors that maybe have struggled and with pricing in China to
get into the market. So I think I was short to medium term
opportunity for international investors. I think longer term.
Anything we see happening in the China property sector will be pretty orderly
and in conjunction with government policy also.
I mean, what a big gross segment that we saw was really when it came to
logistics. Right.
Part of it was did a it, too. But in terms of growth and logistics and
industrials, do you think that still has quite a bit of room for growth next year
or do you think that sort of trend is over?
Well, when it comes to Asia Pacific, that and that trend has got a long way
to go. I think these are key drivers of safety.
And in terms of online retail, et cetera.
And when you look at the impact, logistics and market by 2025 will
account for in terms of revenue will account for about 50 percent of the
global revenue there. So there's a long way to go and we
expect to see the sector in terms of that.
Then you start coming to the market. The opportunity there and the investable
universe is getting considerably even within the next 12 months, sort of a
long way for that to play out. Want to ask you about Hong Kong office
space and high end. I mean, keen viewers of our programs
will notice the beautiful backdrop of construction right behind us.
I want to get your sense really of do we get the demand to come in and fill out
the office out of the slide? Particularly as I guess in some cases
people have lot of companies have moved to Singapore or other places.
I think as we all move with it for Hong Kong, we've seen directions in the
market over the last three years. And with the troubles in Hong Kong and
then with everything we've seen with Corbett.
And that said, supply is relatively tight and we're now seeing the market
tightening. So I think when it comes to Hong Kong,
that longer term story is positive. But I think that that opening back up of
Hong Kong and we'll will see people returning to that to the market, maybe
we'd be working overseas as well. And let's not forget, I mean, that's the
Hong Kong market has been in terms of the rentals, have been that the is the
destination for rentals globally. So in many ways, the creation that we've
seen in rents actually may be maybe useful for Hong Kong.
And longer term, in terms of affordability, ultimately, really, we've
got away from free money. We've got interest rates going up.
How does that change the picture, too? Oh, it is one thing that has definitely
changed the picture on race is the fact that if you look at the opportunities
and where we're likely to see strong investment this year, and if you look at
the opportunities, Japan really stands out for two reasons.
As you know, the fact that we still have cheap money in Japan and that makes that
sub yield versus the cost of capital. The cost of capital last great.
Really appealing for investors. And let's not forget, we've seen a
considerable correction in the currency as well.
So for major international investors, where Japan is very much seen as a safe
haven market in times of stress and which we're seeing now in challenges.
And Japan will stand out for sure. Final question.
This is a very long report. You guys have put out anything that we
haven't talked about yet. Do you think we should know?
I think it pretty, pretty, pretty comprehensive.
Everything that we've we've covered, I mean, I think there are other standard
markets I would pick for next year. Firstly, Singapore as a safe haven
market as well. And the strong fundamentals that we're
seeing there. And similarly, Australia and we have the
cost of capital has gone up there. And but just that little bit of
characteristics of Australia making that stand out as well.