As of November 6th, 2022, there are 45 volcanoes erupting across 7 continents.
This week's stories involves 1 volcano which is erupting and 2 which are not.
`In Indonesia, the erupting Semeru volcano underwent a significant increase in the amount
of ground uplift at its summit.
Meanwhile, in Italy, the Campi Flegrei volcano finally passed a threshold of how much the
ground has been uplifted.
This threshold was last reached in 1984, and in part triggered the evacuation of the town
of Pozzuoli.
And, in Ecuador, we have finally confirmed that the Cotopaxi volcano did produce an eruption
in late October of this year.
Additionally, due to newly measured data, it seems that Cotopaxi now has an increased
likelihood of erupting again.
For context, the Cotopaxi volcano in north central Ecuador is the planet's 3rd most consistently
explosive volcano out of more than 1,000 which have erupted since the end of the last ice
age.
In the last 8,000 years, Cotopaxi has produced 7 VEI 5 explosive eruptions which were greater
than or equal in size to the 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens.
After Cotopaxi's 2015 to 2016 eruption ended, the volcano did not show any major signs of
life.
That was until October 21st of 2022.
At 7:44pm on that day, seismic stations on the volcano detected a near continuous volcanic
tremor.
This activity caused a discernable mainly white plume to rise a kilometer or 3,300 feet
above the already 19,393 foot tall glacier covered volcano.
During this activity, this plume also carried with it a moderate amount of ash which was
subsequently deposited around the crater rim and several thousand meters down the volcano's
slopes.
Although this activity ended at 12:40 am on October 22nd, it for several days remained
unclear if an eruption even occurred.
Sometimes, a volcano can output ash via significant amounts of gas pressure which break off sides
of a volcano's magma conduit.
However, in this case it was revealed that a weak phreatomagmatic eruption truly did
occur, which was assigned a preliminary VEI rating of a 1.
According to the local geological agency, the erupted ash was 22% new material which
along with gasses that had a distinguishably magmatic signature indicated a magmatic component
to the eruption.
This means that magma is present within the volcano's magma conduit, which in the coming
weeks to months could result in a more prolonged eruption like witnessed between August of
2015 and January of 2016.
Meanwhile, in Italy, the Campi Flegrei volcano which is often cited by literature as a supervolcano
has passed a worrying threshold.
Since record keeping began at this volcano, sections of ground have been uplifted and
have subsided by as much as 100 feet, causing ancient towns to sink below sea level and
for ancient shorelines to now be far above the modern Mediterranean Sea.
All of this is caused by the movement of magma in the volcano's massive magma chamber, which
has produced VEI 6 and 7 eruptions in the last 50,000 years.
Since 2011, one such episode of uplift has been occurring due to a very shallow intrusion
of magma estimated to be ongoing at a depth of approximately 3 kilometers.
This has pushed up the ground underlying the Pozzuoli site by 89 centimeters or 35 inches.
Well, as of the last week or so, the volcano has now passed a threshold of uplift reached
during a similar magmatic uplift period that triggered evacuations in 1984.
For a long time, it was believed that if the volcano was uplifted a total of 6 meters beyond
a certain point that it would be fully capable of producing a new eruption.
However, unlike during 1984 we no longer believe that passing this threshold is likely to trigger
an eruption in the near term future as the rate of uplift is much lower than witnessed
during that period.
Most likely, several more meters and perhaps tens of meters will be needed before an eruption
does occur.
At the Semeru volcano in Indonesia, the amount of ground deformation is no longer rapidly
increasing after a worrying increase earlier this week.
While it was being pushed upwards by 2 centimeters a day, it is now being pushed upwards at a
mere fraction of this rate.
This suggests but does not confirm that the chance of a large eruption being triggered
has dramatically decreased for the time being.
Here is a quick list of every volcano which is currently erupting.
Also, here are some volcanoes showing signs of unrest which are not erupting but could
erupt in the near future.
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