On Tuesday 26 April 2022 at the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany, an important summit was held:
More than 40 allied countries met to pledge the military support necessary for Ukraine
to withstand the onslaught of the Russian bear. In just the first two months since the invasion
began, the allies have delivered more than $5 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
C1("Nobody is fooled by Putin's pretexts or his phony claims on Donbass [...] Russia's
invasion is indefensible. And so are Russian atrocities [...] Nations of
goodwill from around the world stand united in our resolve to support Ukraine in its fight
against Russia's imperial aggression." Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense)
VisualPolitik fans, beyond igniting solidarity with Ukraine, the Russian invasion has made one
thing clear: you cannot trust tyrants. Least of all from countries as hostile as Russia.
The idea is that if you’re serious about peace, you have to prepare for war.
This is a sentiment that is spreading throughout virtually
every allied country in the world. From Germany to Japan to Australia.
And that's exactly what explains news stories like these:
N1(German defense investment will double country's 2022 debt)
N2(How the Ukraine War Is Changing Japan. Tokyo Moves Toward a More Assertive Security Strategy)
But it is precisely in the former Warsaw Pact countries that this idea is taking root the most.
C2(If we want to avoid the worst, i.e. war, we have to act according to that ancient rule
that says: 'If you want peace, prepare for war'" – Jarosław Kaczyński, Deputy
Prime Minister of Poland and leader of PiS) Virtually all Central and Eastern European
countries have realized that they have to start preparing for war.
And as we say around here: No sooner said than done! That's exactly what they are doing.
And head and shoulders above them all, one country stands out that is gradually becoming
an influential European power. Listen up.
T1(A LEADING PLAYER)
When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, the newly independent Ukraine
was one of the most economically prosperous post-communist States.
[Prosperous in terms of the Soviet context, if you know what I mean. Because the truth is that
everything that resulted from the former Soviet Union was a mess].
Even so, Ukraine's price-adjusted GDP per capita was about 20% higher than that of Poland.
And if this margin had been maintained until today and Ukraine had managed to carry out a
political and economic transition as effective as that of Poland or the Czech Republic,
the Ukrainian economy today would be almost two-thirds the size of the Russian economy.
Of course, as you all know, the story was very different.
Ukraine's three decades of independence have been characterized by economic stagnation,
internal divisions and an institutional decay that made Ukraine the poorest country in all of Europe.
The crisis was such that the Ukrainian economy did not rise above its 1989 level until 2005.
This set the scene for first the Russian invasion of Crimea and
later the invasion of the whole country. However, over the last 10 years things
started to change in Ukraine and in Kyiv they found a key partner in this whole process.
We are, of course, talking about Poland. During the last decade Poland has perhaps
been the country that has most influenced Ukraine's political,
economic and even cultural development. It has been its strongest supporter within
the European Union and NATO, it took in more than 1.5 million Ukrainian workers
before the invasion and gave this country the model to be able to leap into development.
We are talking about two countries with very close ties to each other. In fact,
for centuries they were part of the Polish-Lithuanian
Commonwealth and more recently they shared their rejection of Soviet occupation.
C3("There cannot be a free Poland without a free Ukraine, nor a free Ukraine
without a free Poland.” - Polish folk saying) Well, now after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
Poland has become one of the key players in the political news and also the country that is
leading the European preparation for war. Listen up.
T2(THE NEW POLISH POWER)
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made Poland one of the key players in the crisis. The country
that is leading, along with the United States and the United Kingdom, in supporting Ukraine,
delivering military weaponry and hosting hundreds and hundreds of thousands, millions of refugees.
In the first three weeks after the Russian invasion alone,
Poland took in more than two million refugees. To give you an idea,
practically overnight, it became fourth on the list for countries
with the most refugees in the world, behind only Turkey, Colombia and the United States.
Since the beginning of the war, the Polish government and society have
mobilized to put in place an unprecedented system of housing, transportation, food,
psychological support and aid of all kinds. The Polish government is even paying small
monthly allowances to families who have arrived from Ukraine to help them get by. Refugees are
allowed to seek work in the country and the health and education system has also been opened wide to
them. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian children are already enrolled in Polish schools.
We are talking about a titanic effort. And that is not all. Poland has also become
the gateway to Ukraine for Western arms and supplies and one of the most relevant
political players of the moment. N3(Ukraine war turns Poland into
America's 'indispensable' ally. Politico) In other words, Poland has suddenly become
one of the biggest adversaries of Vladimir Putin's Russia.
It is also an example of the military race ahead. Because, VisualPolitik viewers, Poland is in the
process of doubling its Armed Forces from about 110,000 troops to around 250,000,
while also aiming to become one of the most modern armies in Europe.
C4("It is an extraordinary and historic moment. The introduction of Poland into
a completely new world of cutting-edge technology, modern weaponry and defensive
means". – Andrzej Duda, President of Poland) Because, let's not forget that Poland has
a direct border with both Russia – through Kaliningrad – and Belarus.
Perhaps that is why Poland is one of the few European countries whose military budget
exceeds the 2% of GDP set as a minimum target by NATO.
Still, in October 2021, Polish Deputy Prime Minister, Jarosław [PRON: Jaroswav] Kaczyński,
announced the country's intention to further raise its military effort to at least 3% of GDP.
Thus, in addition to more than doubling the size of its Armed Forces,
the Polish government also wants to expand its territorial defense
forces – a support army composed of volunteer soldiers – and above
all to modernize its military arsenal by replacing combat systems dating back to the Soviet era.
Who knows how much of this equipment ends up, or rather,
is seeing its last days fighting in Ukraine. What better time to clean up, don't you think?
For example, the Polish army was still operating some 500 T-72 tanks when the
Russian offensive began. And in its air force we still find aircraft such as Mig-29s and Su-22s.
However, everything indicates that this situation will change very soon. And not only because of
arms shipments to Ukraine. In July 2021, for example, the Polish government announced the
purchase of 250 US Abrams tanks to supplement the 250 Leopard 2s it currently has in its inventory.
Another example is its aging air force. Over the last decade, the number of operational
fighter jets in Poland fell from 128 to 98. To remedy this situation in 2020,
the government announced a $4.6 billion deal for 32 F-35 aircraft to be delivered in 2024.
That same year it also acquired a Patriot-type anti-aircraft battery system for $4.8 billion.
More recently, in May 2021, it acquired 24 Bayraktar TB2 Turkish drones.
All in all, this is just a drop in the ocean. In order to modernize its Armed
Forces, Poland will have to make a major budgetary effort over the next few years.
However, the government seems more than willing. And that’s not just us talking, but rather the
Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the ruling party, Jarosław [PRON: Jaroswav] Kaczyński,
says so himself. Take a look. C5("It is better to be safe
and a little more indebted.” – Jaroslaw Kaczyński, Deputy Prime Minister of Poland)
But while Poland is perhaps the country that is leading the way in this kind of war preparation in
Eastern Europe, it is by no means the only one. Listen up.
T3(FIGHT CLUB)
Throughout Central-Eastern Europe they are generally very clear:
they do not trust Moscow at all. Even being part of NATO is not seen as enough.
So in one way or another, virtually all countries in this region are starting to get their act
together to follow in Poland's footsteps. A good example is the Czech Republic,
a country where military spending has not exactly been a priority in recent years.
In 2022, for example, only 1.35% of GDP was budgeted to be spent on defense.
Which, in any case, was already a significant jump from the 0.95% they spent in 2015.
Be that as it may, this is something that is going to change completely.
The Czech government has announced that it intends to increase its military budget by 60% by 2025.
Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic republics are also announcing considerable increases
in their military budgets. N4(Romania wants to increase
defense spending to 2.5% of GDP – Euractiv) Along the same lines, Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania are going to increase their military spending by well over 2%. And rest assured,
they will do so taking good note of what happened in Ukraine. For example, I bet you anything that
Javelins will play a very prominent role. N5(Lithuania to spend over €1bn on weapons
from US, Germany - LRT) Of course, preparing for war
is not exclusively about military spending or political relations.
There are many more variables that we have to take into account. And one of them, a very
important one, is the infrastructure. And while you may be surprised, this can be a weak point.
To win a war or pursue an effective deterrence
strategy you don't just need an army, you also need to be able to move it.
This is precisely why in 2021 the "Connecting Europe Facility" was agreed on,
a European Union funding vehicle that provides $1.7 billion to improve military mobility.
However, we are talking about a very scarce budget at a time when the war has made it clear that
these kinds of provisions are needed. So, now, we can say that the Russian
invasion of Ukraine is making this issue a priority: to prepare roads,
trains, bridges, ports and airports so that, if necessary, a lot of troops can be moved quickly.
This is especially urgent in Eastern Europe, where many key pieces of infrastructure such as bridges
may not be able to withstand the weight of American, British or German tanks.
C6("In Europe, one has had the view that we didn't need to spend on defense. Since
February 24 – when Russia attacked Ukraine – that view has changed completely.” – Georg Riekeles,
analyst at the Center for European Politics) For example, one of the projects that could
be accelerated the most is Rail Baltica, a 5.8 billion euro, that’s over US$6 billion,
standard-gauge rail link connecting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Poland.
Indispensable infrastructure to ensure that large troop movements could be carried out quickly.
In fact, there is even talk of extending this line from Estonia to Finland by
means of a tunnel under the sea. Well, we can now expect this and
other infrastructure projects to pick up much more speed.
So, you see, infrastructure is another important way to prepare for war and
enhance Europe's deterrence strategy. VisualPolitik fans, history keeps
telling us that a military victory does not always mean a geopolitical
victory. Sometimes war only means defeat, no matter what happens on the battlefield.
The US experience in Afghanistan and Iraq makes this clear,
as does Moscow's own experience with the invasion of Hungary in 1956, the invasion
of Czechoslovakia in 1968 or the imposition of martial law in Poland itself in 1981.
In all these cases, triumph on the battlefields did not amount to a victory. On the contrary,
we could say that they were small triumphs of a country that was already losing the Cold
War and that was unable to unite and to win the loyalty of even its Warsaw Pact allies.
In fact, in all these cases, the military intervention irretrievably distanced Hungarian,
Czech and Polish citizens much further from Russia.
Regardless of what happens on the battlefields of Ukraine, where Russia is already paying a huge
price in economic, military and human terms, the outcome of the war is going to be exactly
the opposite of what Moscow intended: The distance, distrust and hostility
of Ukrainians towards Russia will last for years, if not decades.
NATO will emerge stronger, more cohesive, better prepared and with the incorporation
of new countries from all this hardship – we will talk about this soon here on
VisualPolitik. If Putin wanted less NATO united against Russia, he has achieved the opposite.
And Russia is also going to have a border with much more heavily armed and fortified neighbors.
For years Russia has been trying to intimidate its former Warsaw Pact allies. Now it has not only
emboldened them, but they will soon be in a position to look Russia itself in the eye.
And to top it off, it is turning Poland into a continental power.
Whichever way you look at it, Russia has lost this war – of course we already knew that.
If we were to hand out an award for the most absurd, harebrained and counterproductive
political idea of at least the last decade, it would be hard to find a better candidate than
Putin with his heinous invasion of Ukraine. But, at this point..... It’s your turn:
How do you view the plans of the Eastern European countries? Do you think Poland
will eventually establish itself as a full-fledged European power?
Should the rest of Europe follow suit? Leave us your comments below. And now,
if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik
if you haven't already done so. All the best and see you next time.