An August 2015 video from the Islamic State urges supporters to help the terrorist group
overthrow the Turkish government.
This comes on the heels of the first direct fighting between ISIS and Turkey a month earlier.
With the two forces now actively engaged, we wanted to know if ISIS’s threat is even
possible.
Could ISIS overthrow Turkey?
The new ISIS-attributed video paints Turkey’s President as a “traitor” for colluding
with the United States, and calls on Muslims in Turkey to rise up and conquer the current
government.
But this isn’t the first time they’ve threatened another country.
ISIS has threatened to behead the American President, destroy Hamas in Gaza, and Christians
in Israel.
The most recent video is mostly relevant because it comes as a response to Turkey’s actions
against ISIS.
After ISIS bombed the Turkish city of Suruc, Turkish forces launched a broad campaign against
terrorism.
In recent years, Turkey has done very little to address ISIS’s actions along the border,
despite a number of attacks.
Four bombings related to ISIS have killed nearly 100 people, and injured many more throughout
Turkey.
Turkey’s president has been widely criticized for refusing to take action, especially during
the Siege of Kobani, while Kurdish refugees were being attacked by ISIS.
Turkey has also been implicated in contributing fighters and funds to ISIS, although no direct
connection has been proven.
The Turkish government has also been a difficult barrier for other nations attempting to fight
the ISIS threat.
During the US-led intervention in mid-2014, Turkey refused access to an extremely valuable
Air Force Base, which would have given the US an edge in Syria.
Only since mid-2015 has Turkey relented on allowing the base to be used.
So, as Turkey is finally fighting back, is there any possibility of them being overrun
by ISIS?
Well, first and foremost, Turkey has the second largest standing military in NATO, after the
United States.
With half a million available military personnel, there is little risk of them falling to ISIS’s
estimated 20 to 30 thousand militants.
Furthermore, their very membership within NATO nearly guarantees their protection in
case ISIS can somehow mount an effect offense.
Being a part of NATO means that other countries are required to come to your aid if you are
attacked.
That ups the number of troops against ISIS to roughly 7 million.
Syria, not being part of NATO, lacked that protection, and was overrun relatively quickly
in the midst of civil war and political instability.
Now that Turkey has decided to join the fight, there is little if any chance of them losing
outright.
Unfortunately, ISIS has been an unpredictable force, with potential Turkish ties, and their
ability to resist being wiped out by Turkey is truly unknown.
But should ISIS successfully depose the Turkish government from within, as unlikely as that
may be, they will still be protected under the NATO mutual defense clause.
ISIS is a threat to many countries, but how did it get to be feared even more than al-Qaeda
or the Taliban?
Well, for one, ISIS is a lot more organized than either al-Qaeda or the Taliban.
To find out more about ISIS’s military structure, watch this video.
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