>> KELLY O’DONNELL AT THE WHITE
HOUSE.
THANK YOU, KELLY.
>> SO THE QUESTION A LOT OF
FOLKS ARE WAKING UP WITH IS WILL
WE FIND OUT TODAY WHO THE NEXT
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL BE?
NBC’S POLITICAL DIRECTOR,
MODERATOR OF "MEET THE PRESS"
CHUCK TODD IS HERE WITH US.
WE WERE ABLE TO WAKE HIM UP IN
HIS SLEEPING BAG THIS MORNING.
YOU’VE BEEN GOING NONSTOP ALSO.
DO WE CALL THIS TODAY?
>> WE HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT JOE BIDEN IS GOING TO GET
TO 270 ELECTORAL VOTES THAN
WHICH COMBINATION OF STATES GETS
HIM TO THE 270 ELECTORAL VOTES.
SO, LOOK, OBVIOUSLY IF -- WE’RE
WAITING ON SOME ADDITIONAL VOTE
OUT OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA.
THE VOTE BY MAIL NUMBERS THAT
CAME OUT OF THERE YESTERDAY HAVE
BEEN AT A LARGER CLIP FOR BIDEN
THAN OUR MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED,
SO IF WE SEE THAT SAME THING AS
ALLEGHENY CONTINUES TO REPORT
THIS MORNING, WE COULD START TO
GET INTO SOME THRESHOLDS THAT
MAKE US A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE
IN CHARACTERIZING PENNSYLVANIA,
BECAUSE IT COULD PUSH JOE
BIDEN’S LEAD OUTSIDE OF THE
RECOUNT -- AUTOMATIC RECOUNT
MARGIN SO THAT EVEN IF THE
PROVISIONALS PUT IT BACK IN
THERE, WE’LL STILL GET TO A
SITUATION WHERE EVEN IN A
RECOUNT IT’S UNLIKELY THAT THE
LEAD WOULD CHANGE.
SO WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN?
WELL, IT’S PRETTY SIMPLE.
ONE STATE DOES IT, PUTS HIM AT
273.
IT WOULDN’T MATTER, EVEN THOUGH
WE KNOW WE’RE GOING TO GET SOME
NEW VOTE OUT OF MARICOPA TODAY.
THE PRESIDENT HAS TO WIN AT
ABOUT A 60% TO 61% CLIP OF
REMAINING BALLOTS YET.
IT’S NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION, WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE
CONTINUED NOT TO BE ABLE TO GET
TO A 99.5% CERTAINTY RATE.
AND THEN OF COURSE WE ARE GOING
TO GET SOME MORE VOTE OUT OF
CLARK COUNTY, LAS VEGAS, SOME
VOTE BY MAIL THERE.
IF IT CONTINUES -- AND THAT’S
WHERE JOE BIDEN’S LEAD HAS
CONTINUED TO GROW, IT’S
BASICALLY DOUBLED YESTERDAY AS
WE GOT SOME STUFF.
IT COULD GROW EVEN MORE AND THAT
COULD PUT US IN A SITUATION
WHERE IT IS A LOT.
SO NEVADA AND PENNSYLVANIA ARE
MORE BULLISH ON US BEING ABLE --
YESTERDAY I WOULD HAVE SAID
NEVADA AND ARIZONA.
BUT AGAIN THE ALLEGHENY NUMBERS
CAME INTO A POINT THAT I
THINK -- LOOK, WE FEEL LIKE
WE’RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET
SOME MORE CERTAINTY IN NEVADA AT
LEAST IN OUR MODELS AND
PENNSYLVANIA, MAYBE ARIZONA, BUT
WE’RE LESS CERTAIN THERE.
>> CHUCK, JUST TO HELP PEOPLE
UNDERSTAND FOR THE FOLKS WHO
THOUGHT WE WOULD HAVE A
PRESIDENT-ELECT AT THIS POINT.
WHAT IS THE REASON THAT IT IS
TAKING THIS LONG?
IS IT PRIMARILY THE PROVISIONAL
BALLOTS?
>> NO.
PART OF IT IS, NUMBER ONE, IT’S
JUST SIMPLY -- LET’S JUST TAKE
PENNSYLVANIA AS AN EXAMPLE.
WHEN THE REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE
DECIDED TO NOT ALLOW THE STATE
TO PROCESS THESE ABSENTEE
BALLOTS THE WAY THE STATE OF
FLORIDA DOES, THE WAY THE STATE
OF NORTH CAROLINA DOES, SO THAT
YOU COULD HAVE A VOTE -- YOU
COULD PROCESS THOSE BALLOTS
BEFORE ELECTION DAY AND
ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE VOTE COUNT
TOGETHER.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE
PRESIDENT’S DECISION TO
BASICALLY DUMP ON THE IDEA OF
MAIL-IN VOTING, SO HE ENCOURAGES
HIS SUPPORTERS TO DO IT ON
ELECTION DAY.
AND JOE BIDEN’S SUPPORTERS END
UP DOING A LOT MORE VOTE BY
MAIL.
SO IT REALLY DOES WREAK HAVOC ON
MODELS.
EVERYBODY IS SAYING ARE YOU
BEING HESITANT BECAUSE OF DONALD
TRUMP?
NO.
IT’S BECAUSE WE’VE NEVER HAD AN
ELECTION LIKE THIS WHERE OUR
MODELS ARE DESIGNED BASED ON
ASSUMING THAT THE VOTE IS GOING
TO COME IN, IN SORT OF AN EQUAL
BASIS.
BUT WE HAD ALL OF THIS ELECTION
DAY VOTE.
THEN YOU HAVE ALL OF THE VOTE BY
MAIL VOTE.
SO IT JUST WREAKS A LITTLE BIT
OF HAVOC, SO FOR ANYBODY THAT
EVER MESSES IN THIS WORLD OF
MODELING, YOU KNOW, IF YOU’RE
TAKING YOUR DATA AND NOT
COMBINING IT, SORT OF ONE-SIDING
IT, YOU CAN GET THIS.
SO LOOK, WE’RE CLOSE.
WE’RE GETTING THERE.
BUT THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE
UNUSUAL SITUATION THAT THE STATE
OF PENNSYLVANIA IN PARTICULAR
WAS PUT IN, MOSTLY BY THE
REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE AND THE
PRESIDENT’S BROWBEATING OF
MAIL-IN VOTING.
>> AND IN FLORIDA THEY HAVE
COUNTED 97% OF THE VOTE.
IN ARIZONA, 96%.
BUT EVERYONE IS SAYING WHAT ARE
THEY DOING IN ARIZONA.
THE TRUTH IS IT’S ONLY BECAUSE