I was wondering how many we'd lose. So far none.
There's a lot to learn over these three days and it's got to the point now where we're
on the last day and there's a lot to fit in. And it's feeling like, you know, it's going
to be intense. So prepare yourselves. So Fibonacci to start with, then we're going to go onto
the negative filters, which is our indicators, it's the triad of price action, which I would
love to have had a whole day for really, but we're going to fit in the, sort of, building
blocks for it and you'll figure the rest out for yourselves because it's not that difficult.
And then we're going to learn how to bring it all together with you at the centre and
build that system around yourself. And it's not necessarily that you're going to walk
away from here today and you're going to have this system set in stone, you're going to
stick with it forever. But at least you have an idea of where you're going to start, so
you're not, sort of, flip-flopping between one thing and another on a daily basis. You
can stick with something for a while, track how you performed with that and then if you
need to tweak stuff then it will be very clear what parts aren't working for you at that time
and switch over. Imagine you have two drivers, two Uber drivers.
We had one the other day, who in the morning we booked the Uber and it was taking ages,
we were like "what's going on?". And he had driven someone else. He thought it was us.
Driven them all round and he took 15 minutes to arrive. And we had to arrive here on time
obviously. The next day, the person came within 3 minutes. Now out of those two people, one
who came a direct route straight to us and one that went all round the houses to get
to us, which one are you going to put your faith in to get you to where you need to be
on time. "The direct route?" Exactly! So it's the same thing in the markets. If we have
a situation where, we have like this. It's direct A - B - C direct route and you get
the reversal from there, that retracement, that's direct that gives us confidence. As
opposed to, A - B and you still confirm the range but it's going all round the houses
before it gets to the D level. You can still trade this one. The Uber driver still got
me here... I'm here! But, it's just not as certain. You'd be a little bit worried about
it. And it's that certainty that we're looking for, so the first one we can put more into
our position size, more at risk and possibly a wider stop loss. Whereas something like
this, you might want a tighter stop loss. Up here you might say, for example if there's
a Type 1 then actually if it goes against me at all, then I'm out of it. And if it's
this one you might say if it goes against me at all, maybe I'll give it some tolerance
or some sort of significant level that's there. So the 127.2 as well, yesterday when I was
saying one of the reasons why it will be weaker sometimes is because the 161.8 is further
away from the range, so that also means that 127.2 will be stronger in situations when
the retracement goes deeper into the range. So, as in, the other half of the range, so
the lower side, below 50%, before coming out. That's going to have a stronger 127.2, so
if you had two exactly the same 127.2 reversals but one had come with a retracement from the
top part of the range whereas one had come from deeper in the range. The one that goes
deeper in the range is going to be a more dependable and bigger reversal. Sometimes
in the morning if you haven't had a coffee, I don't know about you guys, but for me, I
look at the chart and sometimes think "bloody hell, where do you start?" like the start
of this year with our Sunday technical analysis. Especially because I know that 1000 people
are going to watch it, and you've got a blank chart, you're like "Shit!" where do you start?
So in those situations, sometimes it's good to switch to a line chart, because it removes
some of the noise from the chart because you've only got the closing prices and therefore
you can see things better. We learnt how to put the whole thing together, so Fibonacci
levels, indicators, significant levels and we were discussing different ways of applying
the actual what we've done over the last two days, so yeah it's been a quite intense day.
What I basically do is conduct a fundamental research, which means I look around potential
sources for information about the major economic indicators. What happened in the past weeks,
what is due in the week after, what has been the development of these economic indicators
and what are the likely highlights from a fundamental perspective that can help Nicholas
to develop his own technical view for the week.
I realised I've been using Value Chart wrong. Because I've been using it as a positive indicator
but I should have been using it as a negative indicator. So that's something
that I'll definitely be able to take away from today.
But it's not just about using the range itself for that confirmation,
because for example, if I got a double confirmation up here, I'm not interacting with that top
of the range but I know that I've got that range there. So if I set my stop loss the
other side of it, it almost feels like I'm not risking money, because if that range hasn't
been broken for a year and a half or now two years. It's been broken once or like consistently
a couple of times, and that was when there was something big happening. Trump won the
election. Something big happening. Or GBP US Dollar, Brexit happening. Like that kind
of event. If I know that's the only kind of event that can break that range, talking daily
chart but obviously the equivalent for a 5 minute chart you might say if it was only
economic news that can break the range. Then I know that it's got to be something similar
to do it again. If I know there's nothing coming up that can potentially be that big,
apart from natural disasters or something, then I've got something on my side which is
extremely dependable, that allows me to increase my position size. So it might be only one
opportunity but the position size I can put on and the amount of TMP from that might actually
be the same as five opportunities or smaller ones from a trending market. But that's why
it's dependable for me, because I've got this back-stop, I know there's something behind
me. It's like when people get all tough because they've got their gang of friends behind them,
that's me in the market, I know that I've got this gang of friends behind me and I'm
getting all tough. I think that you're really limiting your long term success. Short term
you'll be fine, it's the difference between short term and long term, is that you're putting
your short term needs and wants ahead of long term success. Because if you entered a trade
here and that ends up being the crash of the summer and it goes a thousand pips and you've
taken five. Because part of these trades when we have our risk:reward or when we do our
3 to 1s and stuff. We're banking on sometimes you're going to get that bit more. If every
time you get three to one, your success rate has to stay consistent and if it drops even
for a few weeks, you're starting to lose. If you're letting trades run when it's got
the potential to run, you're reducing your need for a higher success rate, so your success
rate can drop. And remember when we look at risk, it's a combination of all of them. "You
know, how I think in this, or how I used to think. I start with 3 to 1 to build capital
and confidence and then when I have more confidence" I think that, I now got to know your analysis
and the way you approach things. Your analysis is good, there's only sometimes that it needs
to be changed. Your ability to stick to a plan is very good, but I think now you need
to realise that that ability that you have should give you the confidence to know now
you can give yourself that little bit of flexibility with letting things run rather than being
rigid and cutting it. Just letting a trade to breathe, to have that space to actually
have its potential. Like fulfil its potential. You know like you can be a smothering mum
and it's like forcing your kids to do things or you can let them have their freedom. The
same thing with your trades. I've learnt a very important thing is getting as much screen-time
as possible. Getting behind the charts. I've learnt so much just doing so much work in
these last few days. I've got quite a busy work schedule normally, so I need a little
bit here and a little bit there. But just by getting a lot of screen time these last
few days really helped a lot. Technical analysis on Sundays, as much as I hate it sometimes,
it will make the difference now that you understand the reasons behind everything. And I'm always
available by email, but just not necessarily that often, because I get bombarded. We hit
today 9,000 subscribers on YouTube and if you imagine, on Boxing Day we hit 4,000. We're
over double since Boxing Day so my email inbox is constantly like blowing up double the amount,
so it might take a while to get back to you for the guys that contact by email. Obviously
with the forum it's the same kind of thing but with more detail and sharing posts and
stuff. But I will get back to you so feel free to use me.
"What for the D?!"
Not the D! So thanks guys and I'm going to stop talking now and hand over to Sandro, do you
want to say a word? And then I'll be around for questions and stuff after, but I'll be
sitting down at the back to rest my weary legs. Somebody asked me why do you guys do
all this? And it's very simple because when you come from a background like Niki and myself,
and you realise that you have a talent, you need to nurture it until you pass it on to
someone else. We had to go back to our values, we had to go back to our roots and this happened
last year and we said what we are really about is to help people like us who genuinely want
to learn. In this case learn to trade. On behalf of Niki and myself and the rest of
the team, a big thank you. Keep putting in the discipline and the hard hours, because
you first need to learn and only once you learn you can start trading and only then
you can start earning, to achieve the goal that each one of you has. So a big thank you
to Niki, there I'm sure he's looking forward to having a break "I was looking forward to this bit and
I've got it now, so I'm happy. Sitting down!"
What I've learnt most out of the last three days is patience, consistency and getting out of your own way.
One thing that I think everyone here probably realises now is that, and what you might not realise at the start,
is that it is available to everyone and it can be done.