Administrator Power, thank you so much
-for joining us on the show. -Thank you for having me.
You know, it's really crazy how the last time I spoke to you
was actually on The Daily Show-- this was pre, um, you know,
all of this happening. I think it was even pre-pandemic.
And one of the questions I asked you was about Russia.
You responded, saying that Russia is a constant threat,
and it seems like that has come true.
If that's the case, my first question to you is,
how did you see it coming,
and how did the U.S. seem to not do what it could have done,
or was this something that was inevitable?
It's a great question, and I will say
that I was U.N. Ambassador
under Barack Obama in his second term.
And we could find pockets of cooperation.
But for me, what really made clear
that Russia was heading in a different direction,
and it had great consequences for humanity,
was the Syria crisis.
And particularly, you might remember the bombing of Aleppo.
-Mm-hmm. -Which was, like before it,
the bombing of Grozny in Chechnya, internal to Russia.
So, suddenly, Russia, outside of its borders,
was backing, yes, a regime, a government--
it was also a member state of the United Nations--
pulverizing civilians.
First time I ever heard the phrase, Trevor, "Fake news"--
which has now become a staple-- was the Russian ambassador
at the United Nations talking about, claim...
making a set of false claims
-about what was happening in Syria... -Wow.
...and about how all that we're doing
is neutralizing terrorists.
And it was the first time they were asking us
not to believe what we saw with our own eyes.
And then, of course, we had the interference
in the 2016 election, which was so systematic.
So, when you ask where are things going,
I mean, they have obviously turned now
in the darkest direction imaginable,
galvanizing the democratic world, but well beyond that.
I mean, galvanizing statements also from, for example,
the African countries, the Latin American countries
and others in the world who are...
who are just saying, "Enough.
"You know, you cannot pulverize civilians in this way.
"You can't try to take over a country
"just 'cause you want to make your own country bigger.
Like, that's not okay."
And, um... But it's been a reality check, I think,
for-for a lot of countries
and publics around the world
who didn't realize it had gotten this bad.
From-from a layman's perspective,
it feels like the world is in a place
where either countries are afraid of Russia
or, you know, let's say, for instance,
Germany or many countries around Europe,
they're so dependent on Russia for its, uh, its energy.
Um, you know, providing energy.
Uh, they're dependent on Russia for, uh, wheat, et cetera.
It feels like the world is in a position
where they can chastise Russia,
but they can't actually do anything to Russia.
Is there something the world could do?
When we were warning about the troop buildup
on the other side of Ukraine,
uh, there were, you know, some countries
within Europe that were questioning,
you know, "Is that... Is that really true?
Would Putin really do it?"
And-and it was kind of a little bit of wishful thinking
in the sense of you don't want to have to impose those costs.
You don't want to do them, also, to the Russian economy.
Nobody wants to... Goes into...
Wakes up in the morning and says,
"I want to inflict severe economic pain
-on another country." -Right.
Well, the invasion itself
has produced a degree of unity
and a willingness to go further
than we have seen Europe ever be willing to go.
And to bear those costs
potentially to their own, uh, economies,
at least in the short term,
certainly major questions now
about their energy sources
and energy prices. Are those going to be up?
But they basically said what he is doing is intolerable,
and we are going to bear some of those spillover effects
because we have to inflict a degree of punishment here
in the hopes of getting him right now at the beginning.
You know, it's only been going for less than a week.
But to get him to step away
from this reckless, devastating course of action.
And, you know, the-the kinds of steps
that have been taken just in the last 48 hours
goes so far beyond what most observers
thought was conceivable for just the reason you say.
This kind of mutually assured destruction,
interconnectedness of the energy market
-and of our economic system at large. -Yeah. Yeah.
But the SWIFT sanction is the most severe sanction
that one can impose. You know, cutting off, uh,
the U.S. citizens', European citizens' ability
to do business with the Russian Central Bank--
that was something that, until 48 hours ago,
uh, I think President Putin still thought
has was gonna be able to draw upon.
Now, again, what needs to happen
is then the elites around Putin
who also have an awful lot to lose
from the severity of these unprecedented sanctions,
with so many countries behind them,
is that those elites, you know,
need to chime... chime in
and do everything in their power
to affect a calculus that, so far,
on Putin's part, hasn't shown a lot of regard
for the welfare of the Russian people.
This is Putin's M.O., and so that's the question
for people around him, and-and when his cost-benefit calculus
is gonna be affected by all of this, and-and the sanctions
that have been brought online and the unity, you know,
make it, the cost, much more evident to him than
I think anybody expected, including, perhaps, him.
It doesn't seem like China has condemned Russia.
They put out vague statements that sort of say
"we just believe that everyone should be able
to determine their borders," which you could almost
read both ways, funny enough. Um, is there a possibility
that unless Russia stands up, R... you know,
I mean, unless China stands up, is there a possibility
that-that the world could almost push Russia to China
and then trade in Asia just becomes Russia's way out,
or do you think the sanctions are gonna be enough
to get Russia to come to the table?
Well, first of all, Russia's economy
is massively dependent on Europe and the United States.
-Right. -That is Russian manufacturing,
uh, and so many industries that- that keep the economy afloat.
And so, the-the dollar economy
is still the animating force
of the global economy.
Um, I think when it comes to China's reaction,
first of all,
because of the relationship that President Putin
and President Xi have-have built,
a relationship predicated on, uh,
not wanting any country, uh, to question
what they are doing to their own people...
-Yeah. -...um, you know, wanting to be able to crack down
and repress and round people up,
I mean, that is something they have in common.
And-and that has brought them together,
among-among other, uh, dynamics.
But given the-the increasing closeness of that relationship,
uh, many people expected
that China would join Russia in vetoing
a recent UN Security Council resolution
condemning what is happening.
And instead, to your point,
China just said, "Actually, we're gonna abstain,
"um, and we're gonna say all parties should,
you know, have cooler heads or-or whatever."
And so I actually think that it doesn't look like isolation.
Of course we think it's outrageous
that-that any country
would-would miss an opportunity to condemn...
(chuckles) you know, a full-on invasion of its neighbor.
So an abstention is not... (chuckles)
the desired, uh, posture
that-that we would wish, you know, China
or any member state of the United Nations to take.
At the same time, it is a signal to Putin
that China is not attaching,
uh, its mast to-to this sail.
-Right. -Uh, you know, that it is-- it is--
it is putting some distance in there.
And that, Trevor, I think, is partly also because
China has its own global project that it has embarked upon.
China sees that the rest of the world is horrified,
uh, and that the rest of the world really has brought
a degree of, uh, empathy and outrage to what Russia has done.
And so China's a self-interested actor in that world as well
and is looking out for its own standing.
Well, Administrator Power, thank you so much for taking the time.
I know you're dealing with the crisis on the ground,
talking to many of these people.
Hopefully it'll be resolved sooner than later.
I appreciate you for joining me on the show.
Thank you, Trevor.