Hey, what's up, everyone?
Ajwritescrypto here.
This is your weekly Price Prediction Department.
So, today, for the Price Prediction Department,
I've been hanging out with Tom Crown a little bit this weekend,
so, of course, I'm going to do this one on Litecoin.
Let's get it!
So when I talked to Tom Crown about Litecoin,
this is exactly what he said.
"I like Litecoin because it's decentralized, like Bitcoin.
It's proof-of-work and it has withstood the test of time.
It acts as a testnet for Bitcoin upgrades."
That's what Tom said.
Tom Crown is spot on correct with his statement.
Litecoin has withstood the test of time.
Litecoin was launched back in 2011.
And it's been up and going for over a decade.
And despite it being around for as long as it has been,
Litecoin is ranked 11th by market cap and 9th if you don't count stablecoins.
This coin has been around forever in crypto years,
and it's still top 10.
It's hard to argue against Litecoin at this point in time.
I will agree, all the new kids on the block,
you know, getting into memecoins and leverage trading and stuff,
Litecoin isn't exactly the first go-to for the new crowd in crypto,
but it is something that the people that have been around for a long time
are still very much involved in.
So at the end of this video,
I'm going to give you my exact price prediction for Litecoin
at the top of the next bull run.
But, first, let's look into some bullish and bearish scenarios for Litecoin
moving forward.
The bearish scenario here is that Litecoin is kind of losing that hype,
like that it factor, that, like, momentum that really can take it to the next level.
Its all-time high back in May of '21 was only 13% higher from its all-time high back in 2017.
13% isn't that much for a big chunk of time,
not to mention how many other coins way overperformed a 13% difference
from all-time highs.
The bullish scenario here is that in 73 days, Litecoin will go through its next halving.
Well, what did Litecoin do in its last halving and how did the price react over time?
So far in its lifespan, Litecoin has gone through two halvings.
The first of those halvings was August 25, 2015.
What happened on that day?
So, 2015 was a super weird year for Litecoin.
From April to July,
it actually ran up about, like, 550% to 600%, depending on what chart you're looking at.
Unfortunately for Litecoin holders at the time,
the halving took place on the way down from that big run up
and it actually wicked down 25% the day of that halving.
Fortunately for Litecoin holders, over the next 71 days,
Litecoin actually went up 97%, 98%.
The takeaway from this halving is the day of the halving is a very hectic day to trade
considering how the gap between the open and the close of that day,
but over time it ended up going up about 100%.
That was for the first halving, that is.
Litecoin's second halving was on August 5, 2019.
And unfortunately for the holders at the time,
after the halving, it went down 62% over the next 136 days.
So despite the difference in both of those scenarios,
the overall picture here is that before the halving both times,
it had a run up,
and then it comes down before the halving and then runs up like a year or so later.
So there is also something to take away from that moving into this halving.
Is there a run up about to happen over the next 73 days?
And then it's going to start falling down afterwards and then pick up in a couple years?
Or is it going to break the cycle this time?
And that remains to be seen.
But that was the past.
What about right now?
Litecoin is priced at $91 and has a circulating supply of 72.9 million tokens.
Keep in mind, Litecoin's total supply is 84 million tokens,
which is four times bigger than Bitcoin.
And right now 87% of its tokens are already in its circulating supply.
Our job here is to estimate what the circulating supply could be
by the time we get to the projected all-time high,
which we're estimating to be around, you know, September, November of 2025
based off the Bitcoin halving cycle.
There's about 541,000 more Litecoin that will be added to the circulation before the halving.
After the halving, about 3,600 Litecoin will be added to the supply every single day.
So if we do the math, by November of 2025,
there will be about 76.4 million Litecoin in circulation,
which constitutes 91% of its circulating supply.
Remember, our equation for price prediction is very simple.
Just figuring out what the numbers will be in that equation is the hard part.
The equation is price equals market cap divided by circulating supply.
So we have determined the bottom, denominator for the circulating supply.
But what about the numerator?
Litecoin's all-time high back in December of 2017 was about $385.
Litecoin's all-time high back in May of 2021 was about $410.
First of all, it's interesting that its all-time high was only 13% higher than its 2017 all-time high.
It's also interesting because the supply has grown over time
because of its halving cycle.
Its supply was roughly 54 million back in 2017.
And its supply was 66 million back in 2021.
So now we're dealing with a completely different number.
By the next all-time high,
we're looking, you know, at 76 million in its supply.
So the market cap has that much work to do to keep going up.
So I really wouldn't be surprised to see Litecoin's price point in the next bull run
to be kind of around where it has been in the past
because the market cap with the supply kind of keeps evening itself out.
But let's look at the charts.
On your screen here, this is the overall market cap chart for Litecoin over time.
If you follow this rising wedge to November of 2025,
if it goes to the top trendline of this wedge,
we're looking at about a $48.28 billion market cap.
And if we add that into its heightened supply by that time,
we're looking at about a $631 Litecoin,
which is a 588% increase from its current price point.
I know that 588% seems like a lot,
but other altcoins will rally thousands.
Also, if we're looking at market cap,
during its last all-time high, it was around $25 billion for its market cap.
So getting to 48 is less than double of its previous market cap back in May of '21.
But if we look at the price chart,
it gets even worse.
As you can see here, we're also in another rising wedge situation.
By November of 2025,
we're looking at a $517 Litecoin.
If we were to reach a $517 Litecoin,
that would require a $39.5 billion market cap,
which is a 464% rise from its current price point.
So while 38.5 billion seems doable,
and I think it's possible,
at the same time, Litecoin has slowly been losing momentum over time.
Yes, it's a top 10, top 11 coin,
but it's not as relevant in the news as other coins have been
throughout this last year.
I will say, the halving cycle has done it some favors by making headlines,
but once the halving is over, what's going to happen?
Also, if you want to see evidence of losing momentum,
let's just look at the last bull market.
You know, Litecoin had its all-time high in May,
but if you remember, Bitcoin was up high in May.
It had that big dip.
And then it put in another all-time high in November.
Most coins that have been around for a while in crypto have an all-time high
in November of 2021.
So back in November of 2021, Bitcoin put in its new all-time high
and Litecoin was actually 30% down from its previous all-time high.
So that is the past, but there is something to be said about that.
So, where are we now?
Right now, Litecoin is priced around $91.
It has a strong floor at around $50.
And it is kind of stuck in this overall rising wedge.
So it really boils down to this.
Are there still gains to be made with Litecoin?
Absolutely.
100%.
The question is, how high will that go?
And we still have to be reasonable about where that can be
considering how much money can get into its market cap.
For my price prediction,
I am going to go ahead and choose a side.
And I'm going to say that Litecoin will surpass its previous all-time high
in the next bull run.
And I'm going to say that Litecoin is going to land somewhere between $500 and $540
at the top of the next bull run.
Boom! So there you go.
There is my Litecoin price prediction.
I want to know in the comments,
do you think that I am too bullish with this $500 to $540 Litecoin?
Or do you think I'm too conservative with this $500 to $540 Litecoin?
I also want to know in the comments what coins you think I should do next.
There are a couple of coins pretty high up on the list
that I've been getting constant requests for.
There's definitely a Quant video coming in the near weeks.
A lot of people want to see a Quant video.
But other than Quant, what coins do you want to see?
I want to know.
My name is Ajwritescrypto.
Have yourself a great rest of your week.