[Music]
okay let's talk about clothes your
clothes the ones you are wearing right
now and ones you will be wearing in the
future do you know if you'll be looking
for an oversized padded jacket over the
next 12 months how about your desperate
search for the perfect yellow dress in
the next two years or your need for an
all black sneaker 5 years from now who
knows right well they know trend
forecasters by doing vigorous research
and examine mountains of curated data
and with a whole lot of pixie dust
trance forecasters understand what we
want even before we know we want it so
what is transfer gassing really I was
actually fascinated to find out that the
concept of camp forecasting was
originally born in the 1930s in a
farming area in Iowa a group of
researchers were studying how innovation
spread across two separate agricultural
communities the first farmers to use the
new methods were the smallest group but
compared to others they were highly
educated and they owned the bigger lens
their methods eventually spread across
the area to the early adopters and then
to the rest of the community these
researchers were in fact the first ones
to successfully trace the link between
finding the best possible future
practice in a particular field and
offering it to the rest of the world now
well at first glance this does sound
like a very effective tool to use on all
kinds of contexts from agriculture to
construction to food and of course to
fashion well I am a fashion buyer by
profession and I have to tell you trend
forecasting in fashion is absolutely
bold
bear with me you know what that's not
even call it trend forecasting because
trend creation is what it really is
look data is awesome research love it
information is a great friend to hell by
your side in any business I mean who
would want a warehouse full of the
latest thing that no one bought right
well we've had a lot of huge hits in
fashion before it got this much infused
with data-driven forecasts and quite
frankly those hits carried a whole lot
of misses as well and eventually
businesses craved predictability and the
byproduct of that predictability in
fashion is now sadly the death of
individuality and the birth of a parody
now check this out in 2014 this whole
trend creation business was put to test
by an art firms parody report the parody
was based on a deliberately playing
trend and the loop was focused on a lack
of characteristics the paradis were so
ingenious that they even built it into
the name norm core the core of normal
which is quite the opposite of what you
would expect from fashion right well the
norm core look was established by
unbranded sweat pants jeans simple tees
turtlenecks
whites for socks in a sneaker and style
items were picked up deliberately as non
fashionable people as well I'm talking
the likes of Steve Jobs Jerry Seinfeld
even everyone's favorite that figure
Homer Simpson
while soon after the release of this
parody report displaying normcore look
was picked up by almost every major
agency and was introduced as the fresh
new thing and it worked
norm core became an actual thing on top
of that the term normcore was rewarded
the second place in Oxford's word of the
year
look this parody solidifies the proof
behind the argument that these agencies
they're not forecasting anything they're
not pretending to see the future they
are the ones creating the future well
today one trend creation agency can
cause fashion brands upwards of tens of
thousands of dollars in annual
subscription fees in return
they claim to be able to tell textiles
materials and colors of the trans up to
two years in advance it means that what
all of us are wearing today was
forecasted years before we decided to
buy fashion today is so reliant on these
predictions that the true creativity
newness and imagination that is supposed
to be implemented by the designers
themselves are becoming absolutely
relevant now do me a favor and think
about your favorite dress from Armani
that you bought last spring that bluish
black Levi's denim jacket you love
because it goes well with your suede
Chelsea boots they were not borne by the
creativity that the fashion industry was
built upon they came out of a calculated
prediction that was engineered by an
agency and was put on a piece of paper
our favorite designers they just
followed suit better yet what if I told
you that more than 12,000 brands are
getting their forecasts from the same
agency well as the marketing guru faith
popcorn once said there are no such
things as predictions that are wrong
there are only predictions that haven't
been right yet so as long as the fashion
industry accepts these predictions as
facts wouldn't be obvious that what is
written on that piece of paper is going
to become the norm
while these trans creation agencies have
now become for fashion what Bloomberg is
essentially for Investment Banking I
mean it's that much cackling well when
you talk pure numbers this strategy
should work but fashion is an art form
it is about excitement human interaction
touching our hearts and desires it's
about self-expression a physical
embodiment of what we portray ourselves
as when you think about the fashion
world of the 50s 60s what do you see
you'd imagine a balcony in Paris maybe
la exciting Italy an apartment in London
overlooking the Royal Opera House well
today these trend Watchers spend their
day sifting through your Instagram posts
they're going over your blogs they're
following you around in the streets in
events and concerts and venues exactly
like doin right now just to find the
next big thing and if an agency tells
all those brands that a certain trend is
going to be big the brands will use all
their efforts towards making it big all
right it's time for a little confession
I get why we're doing this and I am a
part of it as well fashion buyers like
me use these prediction reports to
bulletproof our selection pitches to the
upper management's if the paper says
orange pekoe we pitch orange pickles the
industry is now swinging on the spiral
of self-assurance and no one is asking
if this is the right environment that
will give birth to new ideas new designs
new works of art which will elevate the
business bring back the excitement and
eventually protect the future of
individuality but do not lose hope the
solution actually lives within the
problem slowly but surely we are
experiencing the inevitable change the
brands that are solely reliant on these
prediction reports are becoming dull and
highly predictable the young reinvented
unpredictable creative innovative minds
who conquer all others and deconstruct
what is considered to be the norm so we
all of us as individuals must stand
behind the new the bold and the brave
the child too young to understand the
desirability of Keeping Up pretense will
cry out that the Emperor isn't wearing
an orange peacoat this season or the
next the Emperor is actually wearing
nothing at all and the cry will
hopefully be taken up by all of us thank
you
[Applause]