In reality I have come to the conclusion that the Austin Model Y that we have seen, is possibly
a red hearing.
It would seem that Tesla don't want to give out the secret sauce just yet, and don't want
everyone to know that they can reach a range of 420 miles on just a 69 kWh battery.
I am not sure why it's such a big deal if people find out early, I mean the competition
aren't going to manage even this decade.
Is it just that Elon would rather tell us in his own way, and not distract everyone
from the festivities at Cyber Rodeo, as it would take the lime light.
So a lot of us are confused about this new
Austin Model Y.
I'm glad to see it's not just me that it is driving crazy.
But it may very well be a distraction, perhaps some misdirection from the master illusionist
Elon Musk.
Tesla had to open Giga Texas, they needed to show Texas was manufacturing vehicles,
or else what would be the point of it.
I can speculate on and on about what this vehicle might be, but at the end of the day
seeing and witnessing is believing.
Just look at that new battery pack, compared to that, what now appears to be, hideous tray
of 2170 batteries.
Tesla pulled it off.
They made this structural battery pack, we can even see them being made in Texas.
They did it.
Therefore the most logical explanation is that these EPA figures are incorrect, and
it sounds like they have done a lot of copying and pasting from previous versions, hence
why they match the 2170 specifications so close.
And Tesla don't want to give out the 4680 specs yet.
I mean was it really likely that the reveal of a milestone as major as this would be left
for the EPA.
No, these 4680 specs are huge deal, and should be needle mover for the stock.
It's when we discover just how far ahead Tesla really is, and just how truly amazing EVs
really can be.
But it's all a distraction.
We know these structural battery pack 4680 cars are phenomenal, we were shown the actual
data on Battery Day.
I mean just look at the size difference in battery packs, it is mind blowing.
They did it, and I am sure we will get the real specifications all in good time.
When Elon and Tesla are ready to stun the world with just how good their engineering
really is.
Until then Elon didn't want to spill the beans.
There are no clues around as to work out the specifications of 4680 vehicles, Tesla have
done an exceptional job covering that up.
So why are we dismissing this vehicle, why
is it just a distraction as to what is really happening here.
Because we know Tesla can make vehicles, we know they can make them faster than anyone
else, we know they can make EVs for as low a cost as anyone else, and if you have ever
driven one, then you will know how well they make EVs, panel gaps aside.
So if the vehicle is a distraction, then what really matters?
Well I know there was a really big party with
fireworks, and drones, and it certainly got a lot of people's attention.
But Tesla also released a lot of new footage from the factory.
Aside from it looking like a state of the art production facility, we got to see more
4680 cells on the production line.
But not just any production line, it was the new Texas line.
We are witnessing 4680 cells being produced on this new, what Elon calls, the largest
battery factory on the planet.
I think the current largest is the new CATL Shanghai facility up the road from Giga Shanghai,
at around 80 GWh a year.
I would guess that Texas has an eventual output of probably 3 times that.
Now this is what's really important.
Even if the specs were as bad as the EPA report suggest, people are still going to buy this
car, if Tesla can make them.
But Tesla's ability to make them is dependent on this battery factory.
So that's what really matters.
Yes, the specs fascinate the engineering side of me, but the number of batteries being produced
fascinates the shareholder in me more.
Now this production line on Battery Day was
called a high-speed continuous motion assembly.
Therefore if we can clock the rate at to which see the cells moving, then that could be some
kind of indication as to how fast Tesla are making batteries.
Of course this production line may not be ramped up to full speed, and there is also
down time, or even how many production lines there even are.
I know people are concerned about supply chains, and minerals.
But this is the basic element, coming from a mine, its a pretty direct supply chain,
and very few others involved in the process.
Remember raw materials in, finished product out.
We also don't know what level of yields they are generating here, it could take a while,
but this is what we will be keeping a close eye on over time.
At the start of the recent battery assembly line video video we can see a batch of 64
cells, 8 rows of columns of 8.
Assuming the speed of this video is in real-time, then I clock those 64 cells being sent out,
and replaced within about 6 seconds.
So roughly at the speed of 10 cells a second.
The video of course won't show us a full cycle, but just about.
On top of that there are two machines and we only seeing the one on the right working.
Which could mean they could potentially reach 20 cells a second here.
In another segment we see 8 cells go from the same stage in 2.05 seconds.
Or basically 4 cells a second.
However, the same process is happening on 2 sides, so that might actually be 8 cells
a second.
In the next section I think I counted 14 cells going through the same place, in 1.4 seconds,
which is also 10 cells a second.
And then possibly 10 seconds for the robot to lower the cells into the pack, in a full
cycle, I am guessing some of it, as we didn't see a full cycle.
But there are 207 cells in that array, which put us at an average of 20 cells a second.
However, this is when the cells meet the pack, we can't assume the production lines are at
the same speed.
We were also given a cell manufacturing video too.
In one scene we can see the empty cans go around a carousel, and 8 cells pass the same
place in 2.5 seconds.
That would be 3.2 cells a second.
However, it appears there could be multiple carousels.
We are then shown the jelly roll being wrapped with the tab less connector.
Now this takes 3.7 seconds, just to wrap on battery.
However, previously we were also shown that the jelly roll has 8 rows, and considering
they are continuous, it would imply that each of those rows would individually wrap the
cells.
Which would mean therefore it would be closer to 2.1 cells a second.
Also we don't know how many lines there are doing this process.
Next we see the top of the cells being added, and we get to see a full cycle, it takes 2
seconds per cell.
Then we see the jelly roll being inserted into the can, and this takes a full 3 seconds
per cell.
However we get a close up of one happening, we don't know how many are simultaneously
occurring.
Next we see the plungers, and it lasts 3 seconds, and we just about get to see a full cycle.
These are in batches of 12, there are 6 cells at the front, and 6 more behind in a second
row.
12 cells every 3 seconds, is 4 cells a second.
We see the cells moving along the line again, I count 7 cells moving the same point, in
just under 2 seconds, so around 4 cells a second
On another carousel I count 5 cells moving in 3.5 seconds, so almost 1.5 cells a second.
Again we have no idea how many of these carousels there are.
In another video we see 8 cells moving along the line over 2.5 seconds.
Which is 3.2 cells a second.
I count between 24 and 28 cells in the last scene which is 2.2 seconds long.
Which is 11 to 13 cells a second.
Alright so that is quite an array of production
speeds.
It can be hard to calculate what the true speed of that line is.
However, in those scenes where we see mass amounts of cells going through the production
line continuously, it doesn't look like there are any gaps or breaks.
So in my opinion that would be the most likely speed of these production lines, perhaps around
8 to 10 cells a second.
Either way, I have created a table to represent what some of these speeds mean.
We were also told on Battery Day, that each battery production line should be capable
of 20 GWh a year.
The closest speed that resembles that is around 8 cells a second.
When you then factor in the number of cells per vehicle at 828, then it comes in at just
under 20,000 vehicles a month, or pretty much enough cells to hit volume production for
the Model Y.
Of course we do not know how many battery
lines are running, or will be running in Texas.
It is presumably a lot more than kato road, given the massive difference in size.
This battery line, is taking up a large part of the floor, it is enormous.
Anyway, if Tesla are already close to producing enough cells for 20,000 4680 Model Ys, presumably
long range too, then that is a very good start to the opening.
I mean this is a massive state of the art factory.
Tesla have a massive back order of Model Ys, they are not messing around.
They have been testing these 4680 lines for some time now.
I know there is a massive difference between only producing a million cells in January,
from a facility that has been running for around 2 years, to one that has been up barely
a month, and already hitting 20 times as many, but that was the point of this factory.
This cell ramp up is the most crucial thing for Tesla, every bit of data in understanding
the progress of this is vital.
Much more important than FSD or bots, as without scaling batteries to a massive level, then
we don't have the insane future we hope for Tesla, 20 million vehicles a year, energy,
and everything.
It all goes back to the batteries.
And these batteries in particular, not CATL's LFP, that is not the savior that people think.
The 4680 is a much bigger deal, as they can be produced probably more than 10 times faster
than any other battery anyone else
can produce.