Welcome to Sensible Transfers; a video series in which we make transfer suggestions that
suit the style of the club we’re discussing. If you’re unfamiliar with the rules or methodology,
you can watch our Sensible Transfers Rules video as linked below. Today’s club is Manchester
United.
Manchester United’s recent transfer business is a curious mix. While Harry Maguire, Aaron
Wan-Bissaka, and Daniel James are qualified successes, even when factoring in cost, players
like Fred, Diego Dalot, Nemanja Matic, and Alexis Sanchez have failed to deliver for
various reasons although Fred has improved in recent months.
Romelu Lukaku was sold for a loss and is now doing brilliantly in Serie A as part of a
fairly classic two man striking team. Although his sale is perhaps instructive of Solskjaer’s
preferred approach, given the club’s recent dotted history in the transfer market, inferring
a sensible strategy in their movements isn’t always the easiest jump to make.
Overseen by Ed Woodward, Manchester United have been largely hit and miss in the market.
Prior to Solskjaer’s arrival, the club was clearly bereft of an strategy that addressed
weaknesses in the squad or engaged in much long-term planning. How much longer the manager
is given to implement his ideas remains to be seen. So, with that in mind, more than,
anything, United need a proper Director of Football – look at Michael Edwards at Liverpool,
Michael Zorc at Dortmund, Stuart Webber at Norwich City, Ralf Rangnick at RB Leipzig,
or Monchi at Sevilla – these figures set strategy, oversee recruitment, align a manager
with a desired philosophy, all things that United seem to lack.
However, this video is about players. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s United is actually not
performing all that badly overall. Currently fifth in the table, they’re second for expected
goals against this season, a measure of the quality of chances a team give to their opposition.
Despite the team’s strikers playing well, it’s in attack creation where they have
issues.
Solskjaer’s side tend to play a fairly organised 4-2-3-1, with an industrious double pivot
who lack a bit of creativity. The full backs will push high where possible, and Luke Shaw
had been a reasonable progressor of the ball on the left before being succeeded recently
by prospect Brandon Williams due to injury. But generally the game plan seems to be to
use whoever is playing in the 10 position, often Jesse Lingard (and sometimes Andreas
Pereira), to create disruption in the opposition’s defensive structure and then get the ball
quickly to Marcus Rashford, Daniel James, or Anthony Martial to create take-on opportunities.
United are dangerous on the counter – Solskjaer’s best results have come by pinning back opposition
wide defenders and hitting teams on the break. They have plenty of pace to use in behind
teams, but against deep-sitting, organised opposition, they struggle.
But with Paul Pogba absent for most the season through injury, United find it hard to break
teams down and lack a passer who can progress the ball into dangerous areas and construct
moves that unlock defences. This is clearly United’s greatest need.
To address it, we’ve looked for players 27 or under who have racked up more than 700
minutes, so that there’s a reasonable data set and each player is either entering their
peak or is still a prospect. It’s always trickier mid-season so we’ve adjusted minutes
played down from our summer benchmark. These players could be useful pick-ups for January,
but they should also be considered as longer term options as well.
Assuming that Solskjaer sticks with his 4-2-3-1, this player could either be a deep playmaker
or a 10. A kind of wide playmaker – think Koke at Athletico Madrid – wouldn’t fit
the system. While Lingard has failed to register a goal or assist in the league in 2019, he
is still an intelligent player whose movement is of benefit to the team, as seen against
Spurs, for example. United would probably benefit more from a progressive passer deeper,
but we looked at defensive, central, and attacking midfielders for this section.
While obviously a well-rounded midfielder is best, the key metrics under consideration
are deep completed passes, passes that find a teammate within 25 yards of goal, and passes
to the penalty area per 90. We’ve also looked at progressive passes as a good indicator
of moving the ball forwards, passes into the final third, and ‘smart’ passes, which
Wyscout slightly subjectively define as a pass that is ‘cutting the lines and winning
some advantage for teammates’ – exactly the sort of pass that United seem to lack.
There are some exciting players who would fit this mould but for one reason or another
are probably unrealistic. Martin Odegaard is having a stellar season with Real Sociedad
on loan from Real Madrid but it’s unlikely he’d be available. Hakim Ziyech is more
of right winger, though could probably play centrally, but it’s not a natural fit. Leonardo
Fernandez, a 22 year old Uruguayan at Toluca on loan from Tigres UANL, has only just joined
Toluca and would probably not get a work permit, but is a really interesting prospect in exactly
this sort of mould.
One player outside of Europe that should definitely be considered is Bruno Guimarães of Athletico
Paranaense. Only 22, he’s yet to play for the Brazilian national side but according
to Transfermarkt has joint Brazilian and Spanish nationality. He’s had one league assist,
but his passing numbers are superb: 2.6 smart passes, 11.3 final third passes, 3.5 passes
to the penalty area, 2.1 deep completed passes, and 9.2 progressive passes, all per 90. He’s
not the most robust player defensively, but he has a nice range of passing and could be
worth a look – he’d likely not solve United’s problems in the short term though.
We’ve gone, therefore, for two clear options, one as a deep creator and one as a 10.
Lazio’s Luis Alberto is having a stellar season at Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio. Lazio
also feature a player previously linked with United, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, another excellent
midfielder who shows up very well in these metrics but would cost considerably more.
27 year old Luis Alberto, who was one of Liverpool’s transfer committee acquisitions before leaving
for Lazio in 2016, has probably the best all round deep creative numbers in Europe’s
Top Five leagues this season: 0.55 assists per 90, 3.1 smart passes, 11 final third passes,
4.3 passes to the penalty area, 3.5 deep completed passes, and 10.5 progressive passes, all per
90. Playing in a 3-5-2 with Lucas Leiva usually shielding behind Alberto and Milinkovic-Savic,
the Spanish midfielder doesn’t have to worry too much about his defensive duties, although
he’s still serviceable in this regard. But his great strength is his passing, which is
elegant, inventive, and would provide exactly the sort of go-forwards that United need from
midfield. He’s valued at 40 million Euro according to Transfermarkt – he’d cost
more, but creativity doesn’t come cheap.
Prior to our next pick, it’s worth mentioning that at the time of writing, Bruno Fernandes
is heavily linked with a move to Manchester United; but, if it’s going to happen, it’s
yet to be completed. The other player worth considering is Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini.
He plays more as a 10 in Roma’s 4-2-3-1 under Paulo Fonseca, but that’s ahead of
a fairly workmanlike double pivot, much as would be found at United. He’s managed 0.49
assists per 90, 2.1 smart passes, 6.4 final third passes (lower because he plays further
up the pitch), 5.1 passes to the penalty area, 2.6 deep completed passes, and 6.7 progressive
passes, all per 90. He’s adept at finding space between opposition lines and whether
he’s playing as a traditional, string-pulling 10 or a roaming advanced playmaker, he has
superb vision and the technical ability to thrive in transitions, seeing and executing
defence splitting passes under pressure. He’s only scored once this season, but he times
his runs well and could be a goal threat from a deeper starting position. Again, he’s
valued at 40 million Euros according to Transfermakrt and, again, this would be higher – he’s
only 23 and has a higher ceiling than Luis Alberto, having played in Serie A consistently
since 2015/16. But if United want more of a 10 than a deeper creator, he would be an
excellent acquisition.
Despite offering Ashley Young a contract extension, Luke Shaw looking reasonable in fits and starts
(but perennially injured and generally far from living up to expectations), and Brandon
Williams coming through the ranks impressively, Manchester United should also look for a long-term
left back option. Someone who is defensively capable but also creates through progressive
passes and deep completions makes sense, and United can afford to get someone more attacking
as Wan-Bissaka adds balance by being more defensively-minded on the right. Left-back
is a tricky position to fill, though. Three of the best young left-backs in Europe, Pervis
Estupiñán at Osasuna, Luca Pellegrini at Cagliari, and Sergio Reguilon at Sevilla,
are all on loan from parent clubs unlikely to want to sell them.
Porto’s Alex Telles has good assist numbers but is 27, likely very expensive, and playing
for a dominant Porto side. Augsburg’s Philipp Max and Aaron Martin at Mainz are worth considering.
But we’ve found two players we think United should look at more closely.
Angers’ Rayan Ait Nouri is an intriguing prospect at only 18. Angers’ recruitment
is justifiably lauded and Ait Nouri is a French youth international who came out of the Paris
area like many other excellent prospects, and was signed by Angers in 2018. He’s got
0.14 assists per 90, 4.5 final third passes, 1.9 deep completed passes or crosses, and
9.8 progressive passes, all per 90. He’s dynamic, with 4.3 dribbles and 1.8 progressive
runs per 90, intelligent on the ball, and makes eight successful defensive actions per
90. Valued at 12 million Euros, Ait Nouri is probably a risk as far as immediate first
team action is concerned (particularly with Brandon Williams impressing), but should certainly
be considered one of the brightest left-back prospects in Europe.
RC Strasbourg’s Anthony Caci is a little older, 22, and has four assists this season
in Ligue 1. We mentioned him in passing in the Arsenal ST video, but United have a greater
need in this position, so we’re recommending him more firmly here. He’s played 730 minutes
so far this season, so the bottom end of what we like to look at, but in that small-ish
sample size he’s managed 11.1 final third passes, 3.8 passes to the penalty area, and
2.8 deep completed crosses or passes, all per 90. He’s also managed 15.8 progressive
passes per 90, the best of any left-back we looked at in Europe’s Top Five leagues.
He gets the ball forwards, and he does so with a good range of clipped passes down the
line, deeper crossing, and inventive through passes. He’s essentially two footed, and
could play on the right as well as the left, though the latter is where he’s playing
for RC Strasbourg. He’s also quick, tenacious in defence, and always looking to move the
ball on after he’s won it back. He looks like a future starter for a top European side,
confident, physically capable, and technically proficient.
And here’s how our team could line up: