Angela Merkel is something like the King Arthur of politics. Now that she is retiring, it seems that
the whole of Europe will be without direction. Can we really imagine a future without Merkel?
Many of you watching this video may not even have political memories of what Europe was like
before Merkel. We are talking about one of the longest-serving democratic leaders in office:
16 years. During her career as German Chancellor, Merkel has met four different US Presidents.
Within Germany, there is only one other politician who has lasted so long as Chancellor: Helmut Kohl.
But that's not all! Angela Merkel leaves office with an enviable popularity. An
impressive 76% of Germans still trust her despite having been in power for so long.
And, according to all the polls, she is the world's most highly rated leader in all other
countries. In other words, no matter whether you like Angela Merkel or not,
one thing is certain: our children are going to study her in their history textbooks. And
the comparison seems obvious. Are we dealing with a new Margaret Thatcher?
After all, both Merkel and Thatcher were the first women presidents of their respective
countries. Both belonged to centre-right parties. Both won several elections and both
established themselves as great world leaders. The difference is that Thatcher always had
a more polarizing profile. In the case of Merkel, we could say that everyone loves her.
Everyone loves her... Like a friend! (26 September 2021 Social Democrats
narrowly beat Angela Merkel's
alliance in historic German election. CNBC) That’s right! When Margaret Thatcher left power,
the British people re-elected a candidate from her own party: the Conservative, John Major.
However, Merkel has not succeeded in getting her successor to win
the elections again. It’s not that Germans are entirely disappointed with her but...
it seems they've had enough of Christian Democracy.
In this video we're going to go through Merkel's main highs and lows. What has Merkel done wrong,
and where has she missed the mark? What is Angela Merkel's legacy? How will she be remembered?
Today, we're going to answer these questions but first, let's take a look at a bit of history.
(DON'T TOUCH WHAT’S WORKING)
To understand Merkel's political legacy we have to understand the legacy left to
her by the previous chancellor. We are talking about the social democrat, GERHARD SCHROEDER.
Yes, the name is probably going to sound familiar to many of you. Especially to
those of you who are veteran followers of VisualPolitik because we have talked
about him quite a lot on this channel... and usually not in a very positive light.
SCHROEDER was chancellor of Germany and since then he has been working for the Russian gas
company GAZPROM. But let's be honest, even if Schroeder is currently Putin's man in Europe,
you have to admit that he was not a bad chancellor of Germany.
One of his great achievements was AGENDA 2010. A kind of macro labor reform designed
to get Germany out of the crisis in which it found itself. We are talking about
the beginning of the 21st century. At that time, Germany was the lame duck of Europe.
Unemployment was above 8%. So Schroeder's labor reform included huge privatizations,
flexibility of procedures and all those things that typically
make unions angry. And do you know what? This time it was no different.
The opposition Schroeder faced was so fierce that in 2005 he lost a no-confidence motion.
Yes, that’s right, the German labor reform cost Mr. Schroeder his job. That's how, in 2005,
Germany held early elections. And that's when the protagonist of this video comes into the picture.
(Merkel becomes Germany's first woman chancellor. The Guardian 11 October 2005)
So what happened as soon as Merkel came to power? Well,
that whole package of labour reforms that the previous government had just
approved... It started to take effect! You don't believe me? Well, take a look at this graph.
As you can see, the first year after the adoption of Agenda 2010,
unemployment peaks. Think of it this way, reforms do not work immediately.
But from 2005 onwards, unemployment started to fall. In other words, Schroeder
suffered the bad part of making unpopular policies, which is... They are unpopular!
Merkel, however, reaped the reward which is... That they worked! But not only that! Think about
it: the German economy is one of the most diversified in the world. We have talked
about it a thousand times here on VisualPolitik. Germany has thousands of medium-sized companies
that are leaders in their niche markets. We are not talking about famous companies. But,
for example... Have you ever wondered who makes the soles of your shoes? Well, most probably,
the rubber sole of your shoe is made by a company called DESMA. Practically nobody has heard of it.
But in its niche, it is the world leader. Germany has thousands of cases like this.
And that, combined with Schroeder's labor policies,
led to Germany surviving the Financial Crisis of 2008 better than anyone else.
And who was governing Germany at the time? That's right, Angela Merkel!
Of course, we don't want to take all the credit away from her. The
fact that she did not mess with something that was already working
is to be applauded. But we are not only talking about the economy!
In fact, another of Merkel's big gambles was energy policy. You see, since the 1980s, Germany
has been one of the most anti-nuclear countries in the world. In fact, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder,
as a good leftist, wanted to close all nuclear reactors in the country. As you can imagine,
Merkel, as a good right-winger, totally disagreed. Pay attention to what she said in 2009.
(Merkel on defensive over nuclear power. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor,
is campaigning to reverse a decision to phase out nuclear energy by 2021 if her
favoured centre-right coalition option takes power. Financial Times, 22 September 2009)
However... THAT is what she was advocating in 2009. Two years later,
Japan suffered the Fukushima accident.
And I know what many of you are thinking, what does Japan have to do with Germany? Well,
if we go into the details, not much. But, as you know, details, science and data matter
little in politics. By 2011, being pro-nuclear in Germany was totally unpopular. Check it out.
(Hundreds of thousands protest against nuclear energy across Germany. DW 26 March 2011)
Yes indeed, this is how Merkel went from defending nuclear power
to announcing the shutdown of nuclear reactors as soon as possible. Today,
Germany has shut down almost all of its reactors. As of today, only six remain. In this case we
are talking about a policy that has been very popular but has had catastrophic consequences.
On the one hand, by abandoning nuclear power, Germany has had to burn more coal. Secondly,
Germany has had to resort to natural gas from Russia.
We have discussed all this in depth in other VisualPolitik videos. But,
broadly speaking, we could define Germany's energy policy as "quiet populism".
Yes, it's true: Merkel has always been honest and has never made grand,
passionate speeches. But in many cases she has let
herself be guided more by opinion polls than by data. Fortunately for Merkel,
the consequences of her energy policy will not be borne by her, but by her successor. Take a look.
(German households face 11.5% rise in gas bills. Reuters 20 September 2021)
But that's a topic for another video. Now let's focus on another fundamental aspect of Merkel:
her role in international politics. Let's take a closer look!
(THE ART OF MAKING AGREEMENTS)
To understand Merkel well, we have to understand a very important concept:
"political capital". Political capital is the credibility that a leader has in front of his
or her voters or in front of other leaders. This credibility can be invested to take more
or less risky decisions or to persuade other politicians to reach agreements.
Well, you could say that Angela Merkel is the Jeff Bezos of political capital.
For example, we have the case of the 2011 Eurocrisis. Do you remember that Germany was
one of the countries that had come out of the financial crisis reasonably well off? To make
a comparison: when Spain was exceeding 26% unemployment, Germany was at 2.4%.
In those years, the countries of Southern Europe were known as the
PIGS. An acronym for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. These four countries
needed to finance themselves, but the markets demanded very high interest rates
because investors were not confident that they could recover their debts.
They had only one alternative: to ask for help from the European Union. And
what was the largest economy in Europe, and which was also one of the best off?
Germany. And who was the German chancellor at that time? Exactly!
(Protesters rally as Merkel voices support for austerity-hit Greece. CNN 9 October 2012)
And that is how the legend of Merkel was born: the champion of AUSTERITY. And what does "austerity"
mean? Well, basically, Merkel was willing to lend money to the countries of Southern Europe
at low interest rates. However, she demanded that those same countries commit themselves to
pay it back. And in order to do so, they had to show that they were going to cut costs.
As you can imagine, these were very unpopular measures. No politician wants
to have to lay off civil servants. And that's how, almost overnight,
all of us Europeans found ourselves with hundreds of caricatures of Merkel as this
strict German who wants to force the poor Spaniards and Greeks to tighten their belts.
And you’re probably wondering, did the PIGS really come to accept austerity? Well...
on paper, yes. Now, in reality there are a lot of interpretations to be made there. For example:
Spain committed itself to making cuts... while simultaneously doing things like this.
(Madrid 2020 presents its Olympic bid in Switzerland. La Vanguardia 15 June 2013)
That’s right! While Spain promised not to waste any more money, Madrid wanted to host the Olympic
Games, which, as everyone knows, are anything but cheap. [And games that, by the way, were going to
be the 2020 Olympics – the ones that almost ruined Japan! Seems that Spain dodged a bullet there].
In any case: did Merkel really succeed in seducing Southern Europe with austerity?
Well... yes and no. Some countries like Portugal have followed Merkel's formula.
Greece has implemented some cuts. But neither Spain nor Italy has embraced austerity.
In other words, in the end, wealthy Europe ended up making a capital transfer with almost
no strings attached. The question is, did Merkel make a good deal, or could she have made more of
her political capital? We leave that to personal opinion. But the truth is that this has not been
the only major crisis led by Merkel. Listen up. (Number of Refugees to Europe (seeking asylum)
Surges to Record 1.3 Million in 2015 Pew Research 02 August 2016)
The war in Syria resulted in millions of refugees knocking on Europe's doors. And
this is how one of the most intense debates in the European Union began: Can we accept so
many people who come without work and with such a different culture? In this case, Merkel was clear.
(Angela Merkel defends Germany accepting
10,000 UN refugees. DW 23 April 2018) In this case, Merkel had to go up against all the
easternmost countries of the European Union. But also within Germany she encountered many sectors
that were not in favor of accepting refugees. She was even criticized within her own party.
Think about it, we are talking about thousands of refugees who need to be fed,
given a house and taught the language so that they can integrate. You know that
here on VisualPolitik we have always been in favour of immigration. But the
refugee crisis has many nuances. And it is logical that many people were against it.
In fact, it could be argued that Merkel's stance was the push
the most nationalist German right needed to get into parliament. Since then,
Alternative for Germany has become one of the most important parties in the country.
Anyway, it must be acknowledged that in this case,
Merkel stood up for her principles and got many other countries in Europe to follow in
her footsteps. The question is... Was she really following her principles,
or was she following the opinion polls? We will take a look at that right now.
(WHY MERKEL IS NOT THATCHER)
I know what many of you are thinking: we've been talking about Merkel for several minutes
now... And we still haven't talked about the coronavirus! Exactly: the crowning
achievement of the Merkel administration has been its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
And why, you may ask? If you look at Germany's numbers,
you will see that they are not particularly bad... but not particularly good either.
There are many other countries like Taiwan or South Korea that have done much better.
However, at a time when almost no European leader has measured up, Merkel seemed to be the only one
who had a clear strategy. Not only that: she has been one of the few cases of honesty we
have seen. When she has had to deliver bad news, she has not hesitated for a moment.
All of this created an enviable personality and leadership style. And that is precisely the most
remarkable thing about Merkel. Are you looking for a role model for your life? Imitate Merkel. But
the question, the real question is, what was Merkel's great political project?
And this is where it is inevitable that we enter into the realm of comparisons.
I know that comparisons are odious but sometimes they are necessary.
And now it is time to put Angela Merkel's profile next to that of Margaret Thatcher.
The first big difference is that Margaret Thatcher never had to govern in a coalition. During the 11
years of her administration, Thatcher had a free hand to decide on her own. Merkel,
however, has never governed alone. First she had to ally herself with the Social Democrats,
then with the Social Democrats again. In other words, she has had to make many concessions.
But the question remains: What principles does Merkel have? I mean: we can criticize many things
about Thatcher's legacy. But we all know what her principles were. And she defended them to the end.
In Merkel's case it is almost impossible to understand what her political project was.
For example... in 2015, Merkel was saying this about refugees.
("If Europe fails on the question of refugees, then it won't be the Europe we wished
for" – Angela Merkel, 31 August 2015) However, this is what Angela Merkel
herself said just years before that. (Angela Merkel: German multiculturalism has
'utterly failed'. The Guardian 17 October 2010) I know what many of you will say! Everyone
has the right to change their mind. And that is true. The question is,
are we talking about a change of opinion or an attempt to please the voters?
We find something similar with her energy policy. When Merkel was running in her first election,
her party advocated keeping nuclear power plants. It only took a few demonstrations
and opinion polls for Merkel to announce the closure of all reactors from one day to the next.
And we are not talking about a minor issue.
Without nuclear power, Germany has to rely even more on natural gas. And,
as you know if you follow VisualPolitik, almost all of that natural gas comes from Russia. What’s
more, do you remember GERHARD SCHROEDER? We said that you can't understand Merkel without
understanding Schroeder. And the truth is that the careers of these two politicians
have always gone hand in hand. Because just now, in 2021, the interests of Schroeder,
who works for Gazprom, and those of Merkel, have come together once again.
(Gazprom announces that its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany
is finished. France24 10 September 2021) I doubt very much that Ukrainians are very
fond of Merkel. Quite the opposite. Nord Stream 2 has made Germany and the whole of
Europe even more dependent on Russia. And all because of an energy policy that was
not backed by any scientific data. Only political and parliamentary arithmetic.
In other words: we cannot deny that Merkel has had charisma and an ability to adapt to events worthy
of applause. But has she really had a clear political project? That... is more debatable.
But now the question is over you: How do you think
we will remember Merkel? What lessons should the politicians who are still
active learn from this leader? You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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