Welcome to Sensible Transfers; a video series in which we make transfer suggestions that
suit the style of the club we’re discussing. If you’re unfamiliar with the rules or methodology,
you can watch our Sensible Transfers Rules video as linked below. Today’s club is Arsenal.
Mikel Arteta has only just taken over at Arsenal in real terms – he’s played four games
at the time of writing this video, overseeing wins against Manchester United and Leeds United,
drawing against Bournemouth, and losing to Chelsea. That makes it tough to say much about
how Arteta might want to set Arsenal up tactically. We can infer two main things from his matches
in charge so far: he likes a 4-2-3-1, and he likes to push the left back higher and
tuck the right back inside to make a third defensive midfielder, an inverted full back
if you like.
He’s likely to favour a possession-based approach with fluid positional interchange
between players, but Arsenal are a bit of a mess at the moment and it will take time
for him to show his real coaching philosophy.
So where do Arsenal need to strengthen? Probably not up front, where Alexandre Lacazette and
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are both good players, even if fitting them in together is tricky.
Nicolas Pepe has looked good in bursts, while Gabriel Martinelli is an exciting prospect.
In attacking central midfield, Arsenal have Mesut Ozil and a number of prospects who should
all get a chance to impress, should Arteta keep the 4-2-3-1. Full back is a tricky area,
because Kieran Tierney is a good prospect who has had injury issues, while Saed Kolasinac
is offensively good but defensively shaky. On the other flank, Hector Bellerin has again
barely featured because of injury, while Ashley Maitland-Niles is probably a stop-gap but
Arteta’s inverted full-back move on the right could suit him. We’ve therefore identified
defensive central midfield and centre back as the most pressing areas of concern.
We’ve looked for players 27 or under who have racked up more than 700 minutes, so that
there’s a reasonable data set and each player is either entering their peak or is still
a prospect. It’s always trickier mid-season so we’ve adjusted minutes played down from
our summer benchmark. These players could be useful pick-ups for January, but they should
also be considered longer term options – Arsenal are in a building cycle, again, so that should
be factored in.
Arsenal don’t want a purely destructive midfielder, especially if Arteta persists
with the 4-2-3-1: both axes in a double pivot need to be able to do something with the ball,
especially against good pressing teams who can tie up the more creative passer. There’s
actually a good argument given Arsenal’s midfield options to deploy a 4-3-3, flanking
a destroyer with Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira, but so far Arteta seems to prefer
using Mesut Ozil as a ten.
So we’ve looked for midfielders who show up defensively well, but are able to use the
ball too. That’s why some good defensive midfielders in the Premier League like Philip
Billing, Marvellous Nakamba, and Tom Trybull have been discounted – they don’t currently
show enough with the ball.
We looked at a few other options, all of whom could do a good job but with caveats: Torino’s
Daniele Baselli (at the top end of our age bracket at 27), Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch
and RB Leipzig’s Konrad Laimer (both potentially expensive and more likely to move to a Bundesliga
side). In the end, though, two players stood out.
A raw, but nonetheless persuasive option, is Le Harve’s Pape Gueye. He’s only 20,
6ft2 in height, and has huge potential. In terms of passing, for Ligue 2 players under
28, he’s eight for through passes with 1.5 per 90, fourth for passes to the final third
with 11.1 per 90, and 25th for progressive passes, with 9.4 per 90 – those above him
are mostly defenders who tend to rack up better progressive passing numbers. Defensively,
he manages 6.6 interceptions per 90 adjusted for opposition possession, 6.9 defensive duels
per 90, and he’s second for percentage of aerial duels won among the Ligue 2 midfielders
we considered. The numbers only tell some of the story though – watching Gueye, it’s
clear that he has huge talent. He’s always looking to progress the ball, turns with it
well, has the skill and strength to shield it, and can pass well with both feet. He’s
dynamic and has an intelligent range of passing. Under the experienced coach Paul Le Guen,
who won Ligue 1 three times with Lyon, Gueye is developing well and should become a genuinely
dominant midfielder for a Premier League side to build around.
Our choice, though, is Toulouse’s Ibrahim Sangare, who is 22 and 6ft3. He’s made 11.1
final third passes per 90, 7th of all the midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues
considered by age and minutes played. He’s also made 2.2 passes to the penalty area per
90 and 1.5 through passes per 90. Defensively, he’s winning 8.2 duels per 90, which puts
him 27th of the top five midfielders we looked at, but combining this with creativity, he’s
outperforming the rest of that group with the exception of Marco Verratti and Joshua
Kimmich, both different kinds of players in very dominant sides. Even for deep completed
passes he’s up there – on that list sorted by defensive ability, only Casemiro, Verratti,
Konrad Laimer, Florian Grillistch, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (who would also be an interesting
signing for Arsenal) manage to find their teammates in dangerous areas more.
Sangare is very quick and covers defend his left back well, which would be useful in Arteta’s
set-up. He looks slightly less comfortable on the ball than Gueye, but he’s a more
dynamic defender, has more experience at a higher level, and is closer to being the finished
article. But that’s why he’d cost significantly more.
It’s a rather boring assertion by now, but Arsenal still need a centre-back. At least
one, possibly two. Of course, William Saliba is on loan at St Etienne, where he was purchased
from, but he’s not been a regular by any means due to his injury issues. In the four
league games he’s played the full match, St Etienne managed three wins and one draw,
and three clean sheets. Saliba has played on the right of a three man back line, impressing
with his positioning and defensive abilities. But, a loan spell that was supposed to continue
his development has been frustratingly hampered by those injuries, so it’s very hard to
say if he’s going to be the kind of dominant defensive presence Arsenal need next season.
He’s certainly an excellent prospect, though, and Arsenal should be pleased to have secured
his services.
The good young centre-backs in Europe, players like Dayot Upamecano, Nico Elvedi, Felix Uduokhai
and Sebastian Posch, who we recommended for Arsenal last season, should still all be under
consideration, especially Posch – though Upamecano is likely out of Arsenal’s price
range. There are other intriguing prospects: 22 year old Keven Schlotterbeck has only managed
just over 700 minutes for a surprisingly successful Union Berlin side but looks like an accomplished
defender, albeit with a bad disciplinary record, with one red and three yellows in that limited
sample of minutes. Another St Etienne product, 19 year old Wesley Fofana, has similarly limited
game time, but is making 10.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and winning 70% of his seven
aerial duels per 90. But Arsenal need someone more experienced, ideally in the 24-27 age
range, who can challenge Sokratis and David Luiz (or just replace them), defensively solid,
especially aerially, and with a decent range of passing.
Alexander Djiku of RC Strasbourg is an intriguing possibility. He’s played as a defensive
midfielder, as well as a centre back in both a back four and back three, as well, so he’s
versatile. Six foot tall, left-footed, and 25 years old, Djiku is part of an RC Strasbourg
side punching above their weight under coach Thierry Laurey. Djiku makes just under nine
successful defensive duels per 90 and wins 68% of his 4.4 aerial duels per 90. His interceptions
numbers are relatively low but RC are a league average pressing side and Djiku is able to
adjust and be more aggressive as a defensive midfielder, so he would likely be able to
play in a more front-foot defending side if required. He’s not the most adventurous
passer, high in volume but low in progressions, but RC’s defence are conservative passers
generally, preferring to give the ball to the keeper Matz Sels or midfielder Dimitri
Lienard to hit long. Djiku is one of three RC Salsbourg players we really like, along
with 22 year old full back Anthony Caci and Mohamed Simakin, a 19 year old centre-back
– Arsenal might do well to acquire several of them!
Our pick, however, is 27 year old Austrian Martin Hinteregger of Eintracht Frankfurt.
He’s 6ft tall, quick enough, and possesses a good all-round game, with six league goals
and one assist to go with his 8.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and 4.9 aerial duels
won at 61%. He’s a front foot defender, in line with Eintracht’s high tempo, aggressive
style, making 7.5 interceptions per 90; this approach does mean he gets caught out sometimes,
and Eintracht can look flimsy out wide so as a left-sided centre back in a three he’s
constantly being drawn that way. However, in a more disciplined back four, these issues
should be smoothed out. He’s not afraid to carry the ball, making 1.8 dribbles per
90 at a success rate of 45%, and he also makes 8.1 final third passes, 1.4 passes to the
penalty area, and 11.6 progressive passes, all per 90. From an all-round perspective,
then, he ticks a number of boxes – experienced, old enough to lead a defence without being
past his peak, defensively strong and capable of moving the ball forwards well, and chipping
in with goals. He’s not a glamour signing, but then Arsenal need solidity over sparkle
at the back, and Hinteregger would be an upgrade on their existing options and bring a variety
of skills to the side.
And here’s how our team would line up, showing several options: