The Winklevoss twins have doubled down on their $500,000 Bitcoin prediction.
Banking giant Citi has said they believe BTC is heading towards $318,000 by the end of this year.
JP Morgan says $650K is possible.
The stock-to-flow chart for Bitcoin shows a $290,000 Bitcoin.
There are a ton of predictions out there,
and it's hard to make sense of these numbers,
hard to know who's talking about the price a year from now
and who's talking about a price 10 years from now.
But one thing is almost guaranteed.
We are very far away from the peak of this bull run.
In today's video,
I'm going to give you my new Bitcoin prediction,
official new Bitcoin prediction,
and why I've had to upgrade this rally from bullish to ultra bullish.
Let's get it!
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Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
My name is Ben.
Everyday on this channel, I show you how to make money in cryptocurrency.
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Now, in this video,
I'm going to be giving you guys an amended official Bitcoin prediction for this channel for this bull run.
And at the end of this video, I will tell you exactly where I believe Bitcoin is going to settle,
so make sure to watch this video all the way until the end
and go ahead and lightly press the like button.
It's now obvious to me that my $225,000 prediction for Bitcoin simply is not high enough.
I want you guys to think about where I was when I made that prediction.
And by where I was, I just mean the general headspace.
This was in early 2020 when we were not even sure a bull run was coming.
It started seeming like there was a chance we were all wrong.
I spent December 2019 and January of 2020
contemplating whether or not I actually had made the right career move.
Maybe it was time to start filling out McDonald's applications.
I worked there when I was 15.
Maybe they would have me back.
Banking my entire future on crypto seemed to have backfired.
Pun intended.
But deep in my heart, I knew what I believed about crypto.
I knew what I believed about Bitcoin.
And you may not like me, but even my haters would probably agree,
I always keep it 100.
I can't do something I don't believe in.
Likewise, I couldn't give up on something that I did believe in.
So like most people do when they started having doubts about things,
I started questioning.
I went to the charts and the history of Bitcoin,
and I dug deep---
deeper than other YouTubers have gone before.
I studied the Bitcoin cycles more than anyone else out there.
I sunk deep into the lab.
Didn't eat,
didn't sleep,
didn't give up
until I had empirically arrived at what I believed.
O- okay, so
the "didn't eat" part was a lie, but the rest was true!
When I emerged from that period,
I started making calls and predictions based upon what I had found and what I had learned.
And guess what?
I've been right all along up to this point over the last year.
If you've been here for more than a couple days, you know that.
So while I nailed the price all year long,
what has occurred to make me believe I need to officially change my Bitcoin prediction?
Well, here is what has surprised me.
The movement we've gotten after Bitcoin established a new all-time high
is way more bullish than anything we experienced in 2017.
On this run,
we have seen an explosive 75% move from Bitcoin in 17 days after establishing a new all-time high.
Now, let's compare that to what happened during the 2017 bull run after Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.
In 2017, there were basically two times when Bitcoin's price hit a new all-time high.
There was the first time in January, but it was immediately rejected.
It was only able to climb a measly 1.7% before getting rejected.
This was eerily similar to early December last year
when we glanced off of all-time highs briefly on a few futures exchanges.
We basically got rejected before we even hit it.
The rejection was baked in, if you will.
So let's move forward to the time when Bitcoin was actually able to establish a new all-time high in 2017 for a sustainable period.
The next time Bitcoin established and held an all-time high was March of 2017.
Even if you measure the wicks,
at the peak, it grew 18%.
Remember this time, 75% in 17 days,
against roughly the same number of days in 2017,
Bitcoin only went up 18%.
And even then, as you can see here,
the Bitcoin price still actually dropped below its 2013 high again!
It would take Bitcoin five months after touching its-all time high the first time
to have a move where it increased 70% like what we just saw.
We're only a few weeks into this one!
This is so bullish that 2017 is starting to look increasingly irrelevant for Bitcoin.
Maybe the 2013 bull run would be a better indicator.
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But let's move back to the charts here and listen.
I know this is hard to tell because the numbers were so crazy back then,
but I circled the two times during the December 2012 to 2013 bull run
where Bitcoin established new highs.
That first tiny little circle is actually a move where Bitcoin rose about 5% above its all-time high on a wick
and then got rejected,
just like we saw with both the 2017 bull run and the current one.
But it seems like the 2013 bull run's action over the next all-time high establishment is much more similar to the current one.
There was no struggling.
Once it jetted past it on the second attempt, it never looked back.
That's what we're seeing now.
And what happened in 2013?
Only an 1800% move over the next three months.
That would put Bitcoin at about $360K.
Now, obviously, the caps were smaller then and easier to move.
But if we were to have only measured the bodies of the candles instead of the wicks,
it was still a 10X!
Putting Bitcoin at $200K.
But what you have to realize is that this was only part 1 of the Bitcoin bull run in 2013.
And that one 10X'ed, part 1.
Now, obviously, we're not going to be looking at a $2 million Bitcoin on this cycle.
This is where we start running into a problem where there isn't that much money in the world really---
at least money that could potentially move to Bitcoin
without breaking the stock market or the real estate market or some other markets.
If we were to only see 25% of the movement from 2013,
that alone would be putting the price of Bitcoin at $500,000.
And while some people have pushed for Bitcoin going above that number,
the math and the economics of that just don't make sense at this point.
The long and the short of it is that if we were to go above $500K,
it would just be a wick, based on leverage.
There's no sustainable way, in my opinion, for Bitcoin to hit and hold a price above $500K.
The Winklevoss twins have doubled down on their $500K prediction,
but when you really read the articles,
they believe this will happen sometime over the next decade, not this cycle.
For many people out there predicting the price of Bitcoin,
it's hard to know where exactly they're pinpointing their high calls.
We hear "million-dollar Bitcoin",
but no one's talking about this year when they say that.
However, the six-figure numbers we commonly hear associated with this bull run,
$100K, $250K, $300K, etc.,
are supposed to hit this year.
I'm definitely in that crowd that believes that.
The stock-to-flow model shows the price of $290K for Bitcoin.
But here's the thing.
As you've seen, the wicks on these all-time high runs are incredible.
And with any logarithmic scale, such as the stock-to-flow chart,
the higher the numbers go,
it doesn't take moves of great significance to cause huge spikes on that chart.
And as you can see, we are now rising above the estimated or suggested price point for where we are in time.
And this is the part where I give you my new 2021 Bitcoin price prediction.
To me, when I look across the board,
there are three specific numbers that stand out to me.
The first is the stock-to-flow model, the prediction of $290K.
The second is the Citi prediction of $318,000. That's traditional world.
They specifically pinpointed 2021 for their prediction.
It was a leaked document not even meant for the public!
These guys do a lot of research.
The third number I look at is $360K because that's 18X from Bitcoin's all-time high---
the same height the last seemingly smaller bull run climbed to.
When we average all three of those predictions together,
we get $322,000.
And that's my new prediction.
This is my new number, almost $100,000 more than my previous one.
But let's face facts.
This is way more bullish of a cycle than we ever anticipated, which is saying so much.
Now, I'll be honest with you.
It's really hard for me not to go with a higher number!
My gut kind of tells me $425K!
But it's hard to tell how much of that is the euphoria from all these recent pumps.
We could get a period of sideways action to stifle the bull run.
And while I do believe it was necessary to amend my prediction,
I also don't want to start throwing out numbers that are so high
because people could still think buying at six figures is a great idea.
But here's the truth.
If you missed out on Bitcoin before it hits six figures,
you should probably sit this one out.
But many people won't of course. We know that.
And they will end up getting wrecked.
It will end very badly for them.
But we will be smart enough to jump out before it crashes.
You guys drop your Bitcoin predictions below and let me know what you think about my new prediction.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.