Liverpool won the Premier League at a canter last season and they aren’t obviously weaker
in 2020-21. That poses a familiar question: just how do you beat them?
It’s difficult to answer: there aren’t many actual defeats to examine.
But there are clues in games in which they’ve been “beaten” in terms of expected goals.
In other words, instances where the opposition failed to win the match, but created the better
chances.
And a few themes appear from these eight matches, offering hints for future opponents.
Virgil van Dijk is the world’s best defender and his centre-back colleague is never as
reliable - but the extent to which his partner suffered when Liverpool were outplayed is
interesting.
In the 0-0 draw with City at Anfield early in the 2018-19 season, Dejan Lovren endured
a very difficult game and was slightly fortunate to survive a couple of penalty appeals.
Lovren was again culpable in February’s comprehensive 3-0 defeat to Watford and while
he has since departed, the alternatives are hardly watertight. Joel Matip twice nearly
put the ball into his own net during the 2-1 win over Southampton, while Joe Gomez – who
is considered Van Dijk’s first-choice partner - was dreadful in the first half of the 4-0
defeat to Manchester City late last season and was replaced at half-time.
In other words, in three of the eight matches where Liverpool have been outplayed, their
second centre-back has struggled badly.
The consensus is that left-back Robertson is a solid defender, whereas right-back Trent
Alexander-Arnold is younger, less experienced and a touch naive. But looking through Liverpool’s
list of poor performances, it’s more often Robertson who has been found wanting.
That goalless draw against City was a good example. Riyad Mahrez – who would sky a
late penalty - led City’s charge throughout the second half, almost single-handedly launching
attacks in behind Robertson. That’s not generally an obvious part of City’s game
plan, so it appears Guardiola specifically asked his side to focus on long balls towards
that flank.
Robertson was also poor in a 1-1 home draw with Leicester City and was also vulnerable
in an unconvincing 1-0 win over Wolves last Christmas, while in the thrashing at Watford
two months later, Nigel Pearson’s side constantly prospered with quick balls into Liverpool’s
left-back zone for Ismaila Sarr to run onto.
In contrast — and this might be coincidence — Alexander-Arnold’s wobbles have come
in matches Liverpool have won handsomely.
In that 1-1 draw at a snowy Anfield in January of last year, Leicester caused problems in
the first half by shutting down Alisson quickly.
First, Claude Puel’s men pressed four-against-four in this situation with Albrighton closing
down Alisson and forcing a misplaced pass straight to Maddison.
The same thing happened later in the half — Jamie Vardy pressed Alisson suddenly,
and charged down his attempted kick downfield the ball fell to Albrighton, who began which
ended with Maddison heading disappointingly wide.
In the 2-1 win at Southampton in the first away match of last season, Liverpool also
struggled with their goalkeeper’s distribution.
Adrian won’t be used unless there’s an emergency but the point stands: Liverpool
are so difficult to break down that winning the ball without having to play through them
is a particularly attractive approach.
Klopp’s approach out wide is a gamble. Rather than tracking the opposition full-backs and
forming a midfield five without the ball, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah generally maintain
Liverpool’s 4-3-3 system by remaining in counter-attacking positions between the opposition
full-backs and centre-halves.
It means opponents can find space behind them.
Of the eight sides to have effectively outplayed Liverpool in our two-season sample, Chelsea
did it best in their 2-1 loss at Stamford Bridge last September.
The first example of this came midway through the first half when Liverpool were attempting
to “box in” Chelsea at a throw. Mane was therefore towards the right flank, trying
to increase the pressure, and gesturing for his team-mates to remain tight but after Marcos
Alonso threw the ball to Mateo Kovacic, who responded with a neat shimmy to step away
from Henderson and Roberto Firmino, Mane wasn’t in a position to stop Cesar Azpilicueta charging
into space.
This is a factor in open play, too.
Chelsea’s goal in that match came when Kovacic was able to launch the ball out to Azpilicueta,
who was in space on the right. As Liverpool’s midfield three were forced to shuffle across
, Azpilicueta passed inside to N’Golo Kante, who dribbled through an unusually open midfield
to score from the edge of the box.
On the opposite flank, meanwhile, Salah’s lack of tracking back meant Alonso could overlap
aggressively into space and in the final stages, as they chased an equaliser, Chelsea constantly
had an overload down that flank.
Sometimes, a side’s strength is also their weakness — and while Klopp is happy to give
Mane and Salah the freedom to attack, Liverpool can be vulnerable behind them as a result.
This analysis is all based around expected goals, rather than actual goals. The alternative
is obvious: “beat” the xG.
Manchester City’s crucial defeat of Liverpool in January 2019 came despite the visitors
creating better chances: 1.5 to 1.1 in xG terms. Arsenal’s 2-1 win over them in July
was even less likely — it was 0.8 to 2.1, coming just days after Burnley forced a 1-1
draw at Anfield despite being outperformed 1.7 to 0.4.
The most realistic way of framing this is the other way around: Liverpool are unlikely
to continue outperforming their xG so significantly.
Statistics from the last two seasons suggest Liverpool could have reasonably expected a
total goal difference of +76 from the chances created at either end, rather than the +119
they actually recorded. That’s partly because of the excellence of Alisson, and partly because
of fine finishing by Salah and Mane.
Such over performance can’t last — at least not enough for Klopp’s side to manage
points totals of 97 and 99, as they have in the last two seasons. More sides might find
themselves getting a result against Liverpool this season, without doing too much differently.