China has a problem
Its young people aren’t having enough children
Do you want kids?
No
Last year the birth rate fell by almost 20%...
...and at the same time, its population is getting older
This could affect the planet’s biggest power struggle...
...China versus America...
...and the fight for economic dominance
China is in its post-covid phase...
...and it’s ready to take on the world
President Xi has ambition to double the size of China’s economy...
...by the middle of the next decade
Officials in the ruling Communist Party, or CCP, are worried
They’ve not been moving quickly enough to grapple with it
Now, China needs to take radical steps to change...
...the nature of its economy...
...or it risks getting old before it gets rich
Wang Bi Cheng and his wife Fang Wen Wei are children...
...of one of the greatest...
...social experiments in history: China’s one-child policy
From 1979 to 2016 this limited couples to having one child
And this coupled with rising education and urbanisation...
...dramatically reduced the birth rate
Now, even though having more than one child is permitted
Most people in this generation would balk at the idea of having...
...larger families
Or in Fang & Wang’s case any children at all
We all feel that we’re satisfied with our current life state
We dare not take risks to break the balance
They’re not alone
Even after the one-child policy was relaxed...
...the birth rate did not rise significantly...
...and this is one of the major factors in the changing shape...
...of Chinese society
This represents the Chinese population
It used to resemble a pyramid with young people at the bottom...
...outnumbering the elderly at the top
In 1980 there were over three times...
...as many people in their 20s as there were in their 60s...
...and this helped to fuel China’s economic transformation
But these days it’s almost neck and neck
This poses a serious problem for China
Many analysts think it will overtake America as the world’s...
...largest economy around the end of this decade
But China’s economic growth has actually slowed...
...in recent years
And a fall in the working-age population...
...could place further strain on the economy
China, one of the reasons that it did so well, was that it...
...had what economists refer to as a demographic dividend...
...which meant that you had this massive potential labour force...
...to staff its factories
So China became the world’s biggest manufacturing power
Well now the working age population is beginning to shrink...
...which is going to push wages up
And equally for the government, it’s looking at a pension system...
...which is incredibly underfunded right now
So, the spending priorities are going to look...
...very, very different to how they’ve looked...
...over the past few decades
The scale of the problem was revealed in China’s...
...once-in-a-decade census
China has released data from its 2020 national census...
...and it shows the...
...slowest population growth for decades
The Chinese Communist Party was quick to act...
...and announced that...
...families would be able to have three children
...in the future
But it may not be enough to encourage a baby boom
Fang and Wang are the target audience for the CCP’s campaign...
...to boost the birth rate...
...but they are part of the generation least likely to respond to it
I will not consider having a child in the future...
...no matter in how many years
China has changed dramatically since their parents were growing up
And their expectations from life are totally different
They have social freedoms that their parents never enjoyed
They have no memory of a time when party-run work units called...
...the Danwei allocated their parents jobs and homes and even...
...gave them approval to get married
These days marriage and children are not high...
...on many young people’s agenda
In 2005 most women in Shanghai were married by the time...
...they were 23...
...but in 2019 this had shot up to 29
And most women here, will have just one child...
...as opposed to 2.4 on average worldwide
But for some, delaying family isn’t a choice
Despite having new-found freedoms...
...some young people...
...particularly those working in tech...
...are still expected to work punishingly long hours
It’s called the 996 because it involves working from 9am to 9pm...
...six days a week
And this doesn’t leave much time for having children
It’s 6.30am and on the other side of town...
...Zhi Zhi is getting ready for work
She and her husband Ran routinely work until 10pm...
...as well as caring for their 18-month-old
We are quite busy on weekdays...
...so we can only take a look at her in the morning
Do you wish that you could spend more time with her?
Yes, that’s for sure
Our daughter seems to have some separation anxiety...
...and misses her dad and mom
It’s not just the 996: the pressure is high in lots of areas of life
Average house prices in Shanghai are 23 times median incomes...
...that’s twice the ratio in London
So anything more than a two-bedroom flat is well beyond the reach...
...of most middle-class people
I think the competitive pressure in all walks of life...
...is relatively high
Zhi Zhi’s parents have moved into their small flat in Shanghai...
...to care for their granddaughter
State-subsidised child care for children under three...
...is almost non-existent in China
So many young people rely on their parents or in-laws for support
Did you ever think that you would be caring for your...
...grandchild after you retire?
I was mentally prepared
It would be impossible for them if I didn’t help out
Given these pressures, initiatives like the three-child policy...
...are unlikely to entice many people to have more babies
But there are some signs of change
Along with the announcement that couples could have...
...more children…
...the three-child policy included pledges...
...to improve maternity benefits
...lower the cost of education...
...and improve state-funded nursing homes...
...all of which could help boost the birth rate...
...and improve women’s lives
It’s clearly a signal to a variety of ministries in China...
...that they need to get their act together on this and start...
...investing serious money
China is trying to turn a very heavy ship around at the moment
It’s going from decades of spending on infrastructure to now trying...
...to plough money into threadbare pension plans and set up...
...child-care facilities that are simply not there
Some fear this demographic conundrum...
...could jeopardise China’s ambition for global economic dominance
But this might not be the case
As even if China can’t encourage...
...its young people to have more children...
...it has found other ways to make up for the shortfall in workers
The first is through...
...automation
China now accounts for about a third of all...
... industrial robots installed....
...globally each year
Companies are investing heavily in automation. They recognise that...
...wage costs have been going up, that it’s harder and harder...
...to find, to recruit employees...
...so businesses are becoming much more...
...digitised, manufacturing is becoming much more automated
But this isn’t just about robots
The workforce is also becoming better educated
Since 2010 the number of graduates in China has doubled
You’re going to have a labour force that’s getting smaller, but that's...
…also getting more highly skilled
Even if the size of the workforce shrinks...
...at least for the next 10 -15 years...
...the increase in the skill set...
...will more or less cancel out the decrease...
...in the actual size of the population
This increased skill set has also allowed China to move to...
...so-called “higher-value” economic sectors
So rather than being the workshop of the world...
...as it was 20 years ago...
...the country is fast becoming a world leader in technology...
...like mobile payments and e-commerce
Ran works in electronics and has seen how quickly...
...China has progressed on the world stage
We are proud of our economic development...
...especially when we went overseas
Why did I choose to study electronics?
It’s because back then China’s electronics industry was very weak
And then it turns out that...
...when we got to Italy...
...I discovered their telecommunication system...
...was built by Huawei
I then realised that the world has changed
You no longer need to have factories...
...with thousands of people in them
Instead, you could have small laboratories that are producing...
...cutting-edge sciences...
...so those are the kinds of industries that China...
...is trying to develop
The final factor driving this development...
...is the number of people moving to cities
64% of people in China now live in urban areas
Up from less than 50% ten years ago
And this could help because...
...those working in cities are generally more productive...
...than rural labourers...
But for economic growth to really take off...
...one aspect of city living needs to change...
...the gruelling 996
When you think about, you know, productivity going forward...
...it’s not just about squeezing more out of every individual worker
It’s about having a society that’s happy...
...and a happy society is likely to be...
...one that’s going to be more innovative
So just having people stapled to their desks, trying to crank out code...
...morning to night...
...that’s not a recipe for a happy, productive society...
...in the long term
Here too young people are leading the way
Yuan used to work for a tech firm
But she has recently dropped out to do a PhD as she felt...
...the demands of the 996 just weren’t worth it
We both probably prefer to have more time to ourselves
That’s what we’re like
We don’t really want to be “labourers” all the time
She and her partner...
...are just two of the increasing numbers of young people...
...who are turning away from the rat race...
...to pursue their own interests
I need to do things the way I want to do them...
...instead of living in a life where other people build the staircase...
...and you just walk on it
The pressure is so intense and actually it has led...
...to new slang in China...
...neijuan, and it’s literally been translated into English as...
...turning inward on yourself
And it’s meant to convey the pointlessness of all this competition...
...that young people feel they have to engage in
Yuan and her partner are more focused on enjoying life...
...than having children or working from dawn to dusk
But perhaps that need not concern the CCP
As the odds are that China will be neck and neck with America...
...to become the world’s largest economy within the next decade...
...despite its demographic challenge
China will both get old and will get rich at the same time
One doesn’t necessarily cancel the other out
But in the future China will need to invest heavily in social care...
...for both young children and the elderly
And this is something the country has never done before
Though it may not stop China from getting rich...
…its ageing society will undoubtedly change what it feels like...
...to live in the world’s second-largest economy
I’m Stephanie Studer, The Economist’s China Correspondent...
...based in Beijing
If you’d like to read more about the challenges...
...of China’s ageing population
...please click the link
Thank you for watching