-Fires tearing through central Brazil
and the Amazon rain forest region
destroying thousands of miles of forest.
-The Amazon rain forest continues to burn.
-The record number of fires ravaging the rain forest
has sparked international concern.
-Stop the fire! -As the Amazon burns,
it seems like everyone is in search of someone to blame.
-I am under the impression that it could've been set by the NGOs
because they had asked for money.
-The Amazon, you opened with it.
In reality, that's directly related to trade.
-But who or what is responsible?
Fires in the Amazon occur every year,
but natural ones are extremely rare.
It's the rain forest, after all.
They're normally started by people clearing land
for farming, ranching, mining, and infrastructure,
which isn't unique to the Amazon.
We see managed burns throughout the world,
and, often, where you see deforestation, you see fire.
What fluctuates is how many fires.
-2019 has more fire activity than we've seen in a year
since 2010 up until this point in the dry season.
It's not a record year, but it is remarkable, remarkable
because it is a departure from the successes
that Brazil in particular had achieved
in terms of reducing deforestation rates
and minimizing the threat of fires.
-Deforestation and land management fires
are set every year during the dry season
from August through October, and like many natural resources,
the Amazon is caught in a tug of war
between economic growth and environmental protections.
And in that war, politics almost always comes into play.
About 60% of the Amazon lies within Brazil.
That means environmental laws have fluctuated
as the Brazilian economy,
pressures from the international community,
and administrations have changed.
-2004, the Brazilian government, then under President Lula,
launched a national action plan to deal with deforestation.
In 2004 to about 2014, it was a massive success
and was a real reduction in the rates of deforestation.
2015 and 2016, Brazil had a very deep recession.
So, in 2015, we started to see deforestation rates rise again,
and they continued to rise through 2016 and 2017.
2018, the situation kind of died down a bit,
but then came the electoral campaign.
-Bolsonaro! -Bolsonaro!
-Brazil's right-wing populist candidate
sometimes likened to Donald Trump
winning the presidency Sunday night
in that country's most polarizing election in decades.
-His criticism has emboldened loggers and ranchers
seeking to profit from deforestation.
-This is part of a trend, this increasing forest loss.
Now we have a new government in there
that is overtly pro expansion
and the use of the Amazon forest for development.
-So, fires in the Amazon are nothing new,
but this year has raised alarms, and there've been all kinds
of theories to explain what's going on.
Some have pointed to the weather,
but these fires look different
that what we would see if climate were the main factor.
-What we've seen so far are fires that are in
the locations we expect to see fires for deforestation,
and they're early in the dry season,
which tends to be more motivated by economic pressures
rather than climate conditions.
-Bolsonaro said it could've been the NGOs.
-I am under the impression
that it could've been set by the NGOs
because they had asked for money.
What was their intention?
To bring about problems for Brazil.
-We spoke with Brazilian fact checkers
who told us there's no basis for his claim.
-First, he decided the NGOs were behind the fires,
then decided maybe what you had was the farmers,
and then he changed his version again,
so we tried to point out these contradictions and the fact
that he hadn't shown any evidence to support this claim.
-Others have suggested fluctuations
in international trade.
-You know, the fact that US farmers can sell soybeans
to China has created an opportunity for Brazil
to sell soybeans to China, and as a result,
farmers are tearing down the Amazon to grow soybeans.
-With the help of University of Maryland,
we compare where crops, including soybeans,
are planted to the location of this year's deforestation fires,
and they don't line up.
-If you're a big soy producer, there's so much intensification
around the larger agro-industrial farms
that fire's not a thing, really.
So, when you look at those maps
where the crops are and where the fire is,
the fire is very removed along the frontier with the Amazon.
Clearly, related to some of their land use,
likely cattle-ranching expansion.
Most of the crop expansion is happening in the Cerrado.
It's not happening in the Amazon.
-That doesn't mean that we can say in complete confidence
that increased interest in Brazilian soybeans
hasn't inspired some smaller actors to clear more land.
-In August 5th, a Brazilian newspaper
reported an organized day of burning called "Fire Day"
scheduled for August 10th.
-IBAMA is the Brazilian environmental protection agency
that is tasked with stopping deforestation fires
in the Amazon.
A federal prosecutor reported that IBAMA
was ordered to stop these fires,
but the state police refused its support.
-This is the region of Novo Progresso
where much of that coordinated fire activity
was scheduled for August 10th.
This is an area that does show an increase
in fire activity on that day
and then continuing afterwards across the southern Amazon
that actually is the start of increased
regional fire activity.
-The thing is this is one tiny corner of the Amazon,
and the Amazon is huge.
But it does give us a clue to what's happening.
The timing of these fires suggests that they were started
by people who wanted to clear as much land
as quickly as possible.
This kind of uptick happens when there is less regulation
and can be brought on by an economic downturn
or changes to government policy.
Bolsonaro's ambivalence towards environmental protections
may not have directly lit the first match,
but it was a nod of approval to those that did.
In other words, the majority of the fires were likely started
by the same kinds of people who were behind Fire Day.
The fires are still burning, and the dry season is not over yet.
Even when the fires do stop, the damage will be lasting,
making the forest more vulnerable to fires
in coming years.
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