Hi guys, Susannah and Debra here.
So with the 2018 Oscars coming up,
there are a lot of questions
on everyone’s minds.
Why do a lot of people think The Shape of Water
will be the big winner?
Why is it historic that Get Out is in the running
for so many top awards?
What makes Three Billboards such a lightning rod?
And who’s going to win?
First of all, let’s talk about what makes a movie
Oscar-worthy.
Best picture winners often have a kind of epic,
larger than life quality.
They feature rich, complicated performances,
and master craftsmanship by filmmakers
at the top of their fields.
And on top of all that, the Best Picture winner has to feel
meaningful and relevant to its times --
so when people in the Academy vote for that movie,
they feel like they’re actually voting
for a bigger idea.
You could say that for as long as movies have been around,
there’s been an ideological divide over
what people think cinema should be for.
Is it supposed to be a beautiful, glamorous,
entertaining escape?
Or is it supposed to reflect our reality,
show what’s difficult in our lives?
Some years we’re in a more escapist place,
and that’s reflected in our awards.
Other years we’re looking for realistic films.
Sometimes we see the two categories battling it out --
like last year, La La Land and Moonlight
were kind of pitted against each other,
and it almost felt like supporters of those two movies
were debating over what the function
of great cinema should be.
This year, given our politically charged climate,
I’d say it’s more likely than ever that voters
are looking for their best picture
to be connected to our current reality,
to reflect what people think is happening
in our world.
And arguably, most of the best picture contenders
do capture something important in the zeitgeist.
But which one is the most “of our times”?
The Shape of Water, directed by Guillermo del Toro,
is leading the Oscar race with 13 nominations.
It’s speaking about today, but through allegory.
And I think because Shape of Water explores our world
through allegory and history,
it may reach people on a deeper emotional level
beyond the defenses we have built up
in our polarized times.
It’s subtly reassuring people who may feel discouraged
about what’s going on in the world today
that the future still belongs to people
who feel marginalized or like outsiders right now.
It’s also incredibly beautiful, visually inventive
in how it tells the story.
In that way it reminds us of Moonlight,
last year’s best picture winner.
In terms of that level of artistry, Shape of Water
is the standout film on the Oscar list.
It showcases Guillermo del Toro’s mastery of filmmaking,
his love of cinema, and his awareness of our cinematic past.
So we’d bet on him for best director.
And if we had to bet on which movie’s going to take home
the big prize on Oscar night,
our money -- it would be on The Shape of Water.
Sally Hawkins -- who plays Elisa --
is also a strong contender for best actress.
Her performance harks back to the artistry
of acting in the silent movie era.
But the frontrunner for best actress has to be
Frances McDormand who plays Mildred
in the other biggest awards darling so far this year,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Three Billboards also leaves us with a message
that’s relevant to today.
The characters have so much cause for anger,
but they eventually learn that progress
comes from breaking the cycle of anger,
and moving forward is only possible
through compassion and love.
Three Billboards has been picking up a lot of awards
that are really good indicators for the Oscars,
but it’s also been receiving a growing backlash --
which is interesting.
Some feel that it has a kind of blind spot when it comes to
race and police brutality.
Yes, it features a few black characters,
but they don’t get to do much in the movie.
A black woman is even jailed for being Mildred’s friend,
but there’s no focus on what she goes through.
And the fact that Dixon’s a racist is kind of played as a joke
and then forgotten.
"So how's it all going in the [bleep]-torturing business, Dixon?"
"It's persons of color-torturing business these days."
People who don’t like the movie feel
that the British-Irish director, Martin McDonagh,
didn’t really understand America
and its racially charged history well enough
to tell this story with proper emotional weight.
And some feel the “America” the film is portraying isn’t real.
It’s just a European’s condescending imaginary version
of a small midwestern town.
In a way though, that’s the point.
McDonagh has created a fictional town
right smack dab in the middle of America
and he's used it as a kind of heightened setting
for a parable that acts out what’s emotionally going on
in our country today as a whole.
Essentially, Three Billboards is this year’s La La Land.
Both movies cleaned up at the Golden Globes
and got a ton of buzz.
Then some very vocal groups started to voice their discontent.
So just like last year, people are playing out
their social and political discussions
through the Best Picture contenders.
What’s clear is that Shape of Water speaks in metaphors
about our world,
while Three Billboards more explicitly wades into
our country’s anger and highly charged current topics.
So The Shape of Water could edge out Three Billboards
due to its emotional subtlety,
which is more unifying than divisive.
Meanwhile, if we’re speaking about timeliness,
in this regard no movie can really compare to Get Out.
"Get out!"
"Yo!"
"Get out!"
"Chill!"
There’s no question it exposes something very important
in today’s zeitgeist,
something that’s never been captured quite this way
in cinema before.
Apart from Dunkirk, Get Out was the biggest hit
at the box office of the nominees,
so it’s clearly resonated with audiences.
But it came out in February,
which puts it at a disadvantage,
when so many of the other contenders
came out later that the end of the year.
It’s also at a disadvantage because it's a genre movie,
in that it’s horror.
Jason Zinoman at The New York Times wrote a great article
on how our culture has a habit of calling any
“good” horror movie not really horror.
Historically speaking, genre movies generally have a hard time
winning awards.
The only horror movie to win best picture is
The Silence of the Lambs in 1992 --
and that's another film that gets labeled as
“not really a horror” or “more than horror.”
And of course, Get Out is more than a horror movie,
but it's a little unfair to the whole genre of horror in general
that anytime there's a really good one,
we say it's something else.
Yeah, tell that to Hitchcock.
[Screams]
Get Out is also seen partly as a comedy --
another genre that doesn’t get much Oscar love.
The fact that it was put in the musical or comedy category
at the Golden Globes shows that people aren’t really sure
what to do with it.
“It doesn’t fit into a genre, you know.
It sort of subverts the idea of genre.”
There’s even an interview with Jordan Peele
where the director seems to suggest he wasn’t too happy
the it was submitted as a comedy.
"It was submitted, and I --"
"It was submitted?"
"It was submitted.
It was --"
"Don't use the passive tense.
You're a better writer than that."
"I, well, it had been submitted."
Even with the release date and the genre possibly
working against it,
we could see Get Out being a surprise win
because it does capture something so freakishly
of the moment.
And the things that make it an unlikely contender
would make it all the more exciting if it did win.
It’s also historic that Jordan Peele is nominated
for Best Director.
He’s only the fifth black person to be nominated
for the award and the first to get a Best Picture,
Best Directing and Best Original Screenplay nomination
all in one year.
Lady Bird is the kind of story that might not
strike people as grand or important enough
to be a Best Picture contender --
because it’s comedic, it’s not super high stakes,
and it revolves around a teenage girl.
But the fact that it’s been championed the way it has,
tells us people are revisiting their assumptions
about what kind of film is deserving of awards.
We could see this one being a surprise win
for similar reasons to Get Out,
especially in the context of Me Too and Time's Up,
and the growing pressure on Hollywood to give women
more of a shot at telling their own stories.
There's also a chance of Best Director going to Greta Gerwig,
who’s only the fifth woman to be nominated for the award ever,
and the first in almost a decade.
People are really eager to see diverse directors rewarded.
"Here are the all male nominees."
Call Me By Your Name is a beautiful film
that’s always seemed like a shoe-in
for these big nominations,
but for some reason so far it's actually
not been winning the awards many people think it deserves.
This film is subtle -- it sneaks up on you --
and by the end, it builds to something very powerful.
The movie really resonates emotionally,
and I think some people have missed the fact
that it is saying something really important
about the universality of love,
and the importance of not killing our feelings,
embracing our pain together with the beauty
of what we lived.
But because it sends those messages through more a personal story,
it probably won’t take home Best Picture
in a year when other films are more dramatically asserting
their political relevance.
But, we’d still say that Timothee Chalamet has a good chance
at winning best actor --
he does such an amazing job of making you feel
real affection for the character he plays
who is so earnest and just starting to open up to the world.
The Post, Dunkirk and Darkest Hour -- yes, they are all
timely in their own ways, too.
The Post is about The Washington Post’s decision
to publish the Pentagon Papers.
The parallels between that era in that era and today
are clear --
there’s the whole breaking news story element,
an emphasis on freedom of the press,
and of course, the idea of uncovering what our government
is really up to.
Meanwhile, both Dunkirk and Darkest Hour incorporate
the Dunkirk evacuation of World War II,
where stranded British troops were rescued
by civilian boats.
These two films are reminding us of a moment
when the UK was vulnerable and on uncertain ground.
Of course, the UK is feeling vulnerable now as well,
with the lead-up to Brexit.
So Dunkirk and Darkest Hour are using that history
to tap into something current.
But their timeliness is a lot more subtle
than Get Out’s or Three Billboards’.
Ultimately The Post and Darkest Hour are
classic Oscar-bait.
But they just don’t seem to inspire the kind of
passionate emotional response
that some of the other films do.
That doesn’t mean, however, that they’re
out of the running for other awards.
Best Actor has a very good chance of going to
Gary Oldman for The Darkest Hour.
"You cannot reason with a tiger, when your head is
in its mouth!"
Dunkirk follows The Shape of Water with the second highest
number of Oscar nominations.
Out of all the nominees it did the best at the box office.
And many people called it Christopher Nolan’s
best film ever.
Again, this doesn’t seem like the year that a WWII drama
is going to beat out the competition.
But we’d say Nolan has a shot at Best Director.
This is actually his first time being nominated
for this award.
Phantom Thread is an incredibly original movie,
beautifully crafted in the vein of a dark fairy tale
or a gothic romance like Hitchcock's Rebecca.
The love story here is delightfully weird and dysfunctional,
but also getting at some surprising insights about love.
Daniel Day-Lewis could snag best actor --
he’s recently announced that he’s retiring from acting --
then again, that could be an act too.
But Phantom Thread feels less “zeitgeisty” than the others --
and in a year like this one,
it’s been overlooked somewhat,
because it’s not so dramatically about something current.
To recap, we think timeliness is going to be key
for the Best Picture winner this year.
We’d say Shape of Water will probably win over
Three Billboards
because it does timeliness in a subtle, innovating way
and also brings that masterful craftsmanship
that the Oscars love to celebrate.
But we could definitely picture a surprise win
from Get Out.
There’s even a very small chance of an upset
from Lady Bird.
We also think it’s very cool that Mudbound cinematographer
Rachel Morrison is the first woman ever nominated
for Best Cinematographer.
Go Rachel!
And finally, we’d like to give a shout-out
to The Florida Project --
a movie we think should have gotten more awards love
this year.
It’s an engaging, naturalistic portrait
of kids living near Disneyworld --
observed with such humanity and building to
a powerful, heartbreaking place.
Willem Dafoe is nominated for Best Supporting Actor,
but overall the film hasn’t gained as much traction
as we really think it should have.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments,
and tell us who you think is going to take home
the Oscar gold!
"We didn't do this -- you guys chose us.
Thank you for the choice -- I appreciate that."