- If you went back in time a hundred years or so,
you'd see a lot of people doing jobs
that don't exist anymore.
Since most homes didn't have refrigeration,
milkman deliver dairy to your doorstep every morning
and had an affair with your wife
if fifties comedy is accurate.
Elevators were driven like street cars,
which meant elevator operators had to be trained
to ensure a smooth and precise ride for passengers.
Phone lines weren't automated
so switchboard operators were needed
to connect you to your party.
Even the bowling alley had a team of manual pin setters
to prepare your next frame.
- These jobs may seem quaint or even absurd
by today's standards,
but don't feel too superior.
Perhaps a hundred years from now,
someone will look back at your job
and wonder why you were necessary.
(bright music)
- Fear of technological unemployment is nothing new.
As far back as 350 BC, Aristotle contemplated
the idea of machines performing human labor.
During the Industrial Revolution,
textile workers known as Luddites
destroy the new fangle machinery at the factory.
And the steel-driving man of folklore, John Henry
literally killed himself
competing against a steam-powered machine.
- In 1930, the famed economist, John Maynard Keynes
took a more optimistic view of the problem.
Predicting that automation and technology
would soon allow people to work only 15 hours a week.
That would have been nice.
Of course, today we know
that neither Keynes nor the Luddites had it quite right.
Technology has made us far more productive,
but it seems there's still plenty of work to be done.
- Most economists argue that technology
doesn't so much eliminate jobs as change them,
that the number of tasks rendered obsolete
are more than made up for by new ones.
So instead of switchboard operators,
now we have cell phone repairmen, broadband technicians,
and mobile app developers.
This may be cold comfort
if you happen to have spent half a lifetime
becoming the fastest switchboard operator in the West.
But if it's any consolation,
there are plenty of other workers in the same boat.
- Automation has been changing manufacturing and agriculture
for some time.
We're used to seeing robots in factories and on farms,
but recently, the machines have been expanding
their territory.
Automatic kiosks are replacing cashiers and bank tellers.
Fast food companies are experimenting
with burger-flipping robots.
And one robo-caller can disrupt as many dinners
as a whole floor of telemarketers.
Thanks to advancements in artificial intelligence,
self-driving vehicles are quickly becoming a reality.
Putting at risk anyone who makes a living behind the wheel
of a cab, truck or bus.
Amazon is even implementing unmanned drones
to deliver packages.
Basically, any job that involves repetitive,
predictable tasks is ripe for automation.
- But the machines aren't just coming for the blue collars,
clerical jobs are getting automated as well.
Insurance underwriters and loan officers
who research an individual or company's history
and calculate a precise level of risk
are being replaced by algorithms
that can crunch more data faster and more accurately.
- Purchasing agents who maintain a company's stock
of merchandise and equipment are outperformed by computers
that order, track, and invoice at a higher volume.
And lawyers with access to vast online databases
have less need for paralegals and secretaries.
- Even tax preparers and financial advisors
are feeling the heat from apps and websites
that analyze a customer's portfolio
and give custom guidance.
- Okay, now this is getting scary.
- So what jobs aren't threatened
by technology's pitiless advance?
Well, no job is safe forever,
but if you at least want to buy yourself some time,
you can focus on new and burgeoning industries.
Careers in genetics, video game design,
and social media marketing have seen strong growth
in recent years.
Alternative energy and sustainability are also on the rise.
And it's no coincidence that there's high demand
in the fields of robotics and data science.
That's right.
You can get a good job teaching robots and algorithms
to take other people's jobs away.
Kidding, not kidding.
- Another field that seems to be safe for the time being
is the arts.
Some cutting edge software companies are developing AI
that can write poems, draw pictures, compose music,
even design fashion.
And while they might be impressive
from a technological standpoint,
none of them are close to competing with human artists.
It may sometimes feel like franchise movies and pop songs
are written by computers,
but I assure you,
there are real people behind them, I think.
So, congratulations, poets and musicians!
You can now brag to your insurance underwriter brother
that you made a better career decision.
- However, your plumber cousin
has got the better of both of you.
Trades like plumbing, electrical, and HVAC are well-paid
and fairly protected from automation.
That's because they're often unpredictable
and machines do not do well with unpredictability.
These workers are called out to random homes and businesses,
asked to diagnose and fix unexpected problems.
Robots have a long way to go before they can match
that kind of flexibility.
- But perhaps the most future-proof jobs in America
are the ones that rely on interpersonal interactions.
Social workers, counselors, occupational therapists, clergy,
the more tact and compassion required,
the safer the job is from technological replacement.
Even if a computer could understand
the complexities of human emotion,
it's still couldn't form the bonds of trust
and mutual respect that these workers must forge
with their clients.
- Particularly in demand right now
and for the foreseeable future, is elderly care.
Not only does the profession require
a distinctly human touch,
America's elderly population
is quickly reaching historic levels.
We may be headed for a severe labor shortage in this field,
one that robots aren't ready to fill.
- Neither humans nor computers
are too good at predicting the future
so take all of this with a grain of salt.
One thing is certain though,
technology keeps moving and not much can stop it.
You may think you have a cutting edge job
but so did the elevator operator once.
- The best thing you can do to protect yourself
is to pay attention to innovations in your field
and be ready to learn new skills.
Your job may someday get taken over by a robot,
but someone has to design that robot and build it
and program it and maintain it and supervise it.
- Someone already in the field is in a better position
to take one of those new jobs when the old one goes the way
of the milkman.
- [Both] And that's our two cents.
- Quick, before you go,
do you know what you wanna be when you grow up?
- No matter your answer,
we think you should check out "Future of Work,"
a new six-part docuseries on PBS Voices
hosted by Julia and me
that explores the real big work-related questions
that Americans are facing today.
Everything from debt and the gig economy to career identity,
and so much more.
- Check it out.
Link in our description and be sure to tell them
that Two Cents sent you.
Thanks to our patrons
for keeping Two Cents financially healthy.
Click the link in the description
to become a Two Cents patron.
(bright music)