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[Music]
welcome once again visualpolitik viewers
this woman you see on the screen is maya
sandu the pro-european president of
moldova one of the countries that is
tensely witnessing the war between
russia and ukraine unfold on high alert
and no we're not exaggerating the
president herself describes the current
situation as the most dangerous period
in the country's entire history in fact
just a week after russia invaded ukraine
moldova applied surprise surprise to
join the european union a process that
obviously will be neither easy or fast
we are talking about a country that
rivals ukraine itself for the title of
the poorest country in europe and that
in addition has serious political
problems starting with the fact that it
does not even have basic territorial and
border control in the whole country
we are the most fragile neighbor of
ukraine we are the country most affected
by it and we are the country that has
the least resources to cope with the
situation and the consequences of the
war niku popescu moldova's minister of
foreign affairs now why so much anxiety
all of a sudden what on earth does the
russian invasion of ukraine have to do
with moldova why does its president say
that this is one of the most dangerous
periods in its entire history what
exactly could explain headlines like
this
u.s ukrainian officials weigh high
possibility of putin invading moldova
wait wait wait wait a minute could what
we are seeing in ukraine be repeated in
moldova could this be the continuation
of the war well let's take a look but
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a it fueled by russia
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moldova was the second smallest republic
in the former soviet union and when the
soviet union collapsed and moldova
declared its independence russia backed
a separatist rebellion in transnistria
giving rise to a new quasi republic
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just as the dunepa river divides ukraine
in two berdinista divides moldova into
two ethnically and linguistically
distinct regions while west of the
nanista moldova is made up of ethnic
romanian-speaking moldovans transnistria
is dominated by a clearly slavic
majority who speak russian or ukrainian
as their main language
the fact is that since the rupture
between these two territories was
created russian troops approximately
1500 of them remain deployed in the
pridnestrovian moldovan republic more
popularly known as transnistria one of
the most bizarre unrecognized countries
on the planet with some 500 000
inhabitants although it's believed that
only a few more than 200 000 people
actually live there this narrow strip of
land between moldova and ukraine is run
by pro-russian separatists and survives
largely off russia moscow provides not
only security but also free natural gas
and pension supplements
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in a way walking through the streets of
tiraspol the transnistrian capital is
something like going back 40 years in
time to return to a kind of soviet union
with touches of modernity we are talking
about a place where its residents live
under a barrage of russian propaganda of
course beyond the hammer and sickle that
they still keep on their flag we could
find many differences with the former
soviet union for example since the 1990s
the economy of transnistria has been
monopolized by one company sheriff a
company that was co-founded by former
kgb agent victor gushan with the help of
several of his collaborators and that
today owns everything when i say
everything i mean absolutely everything
from the national supermarket chain to
the eponymous champions league soccer
club gymnasiums telecommunication
companies gas stations tobacco alcohol
in fact it even controls transnistria's
own ruling party known as renewal which
holds 29 of the 33 seats in the supreme
council
in other words trans nistria is not a
communist country but rather a country
at the service of a clique of oligarchs
who control everything and of course as
you can imagine there are not many
opportunities for people who do not have
ties with this small elite but let's not
get sidetracked after moldova's
application for eu membership on the 3rd
of march transnistria has once again
demanded recognition of its full
independence and that's not all
the following month on the 22nd of april
a russian general rustam minakayev
stated that moscow's objective was to
occupy the entire ukrainian coast and
open a direct route to transnistria
because he claimed russian speakers are
oppressed in moldova virtually the same
accusation that the kremlin made against
ukraine for a long time
which as you can imagine has made many
in chizino be on guard to top it off
just three days after this defined
statement an explosion damaged the
ministry of state security into raspol
and a day later two more explosions
destroyed antennas used to broadcast
russian radio and you know what no one
absolutely no one claimed responsibility
for these attacks which has raised some
questions was it ukrainian saboteurs
trying to damage russian targets or was
it the russians themselves trying to
justify some kind of military operation
through what are known as false flag
operations
visualpolitik viewers moldova is one of
the poorest countries in all of europe
it only has a tiny obsolete and
ill-equipped army that does not even
have fighter planes and barely six
transport helicopters its tanks are
basically antiques that would be better
suited to a museum than a battlefield
and on top of that the country has
barely 6 000 soldiers to make matters
worse moldova has never sought to join
nato in fact since 1994 the concept of
neutrality has been enshrined in its
constitution so the question is what
could russia be looking for in a country
that can pose no threat is there really
a risk of escalating the conflict well
let's take a look
at the crossroads
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for what purpose exactly might moscow
wants to extend the conflict to this new
country well russia has a long history
of resorting to such false flag
operations and president zielenski
himself said loud and clear that the
explosions were the work of moscow
what's more according to ukrainian
military intelligence a huge number of
leaflets have been prepared in
transnistria urging russians to take up
arms against moldova or even against
ukraine itself in fact at the beginning
of the invasion one of the first things
the ukrainian army did was to damage
bridges that russian troops might
eventually use to support an attack on
odessa from transnistria remember that
on top of the 1500 russian troops must
be added the 4 500 to 7500 soldiers that
make up the transnistrian army in total
between 6 000 and 9 000 soldiers that
moscow could use to achieve its
objectives both in ukraine and in
moldova itself
russian soldiers plus the transnistrian
army could end up in qinzao within an
hour alexei tulbur political analyst and
former moldovan ambassador to the united
nations it turns out it's not just about
the russians the municipality of kobasna
a village in the north of the separatist
region is home to the largest ammunition
depot in all of eastern europe we could
be talking about some 20 000 tonnes of
soviet era ammunition that the
ukrainians might want to neutralize or
even try to seize
to give you an idea of what could be
stored there in 2005 the academy of
sciences of moldova estimated that an
explosion in this warehouse would be
comparable to the explosion of the
nuclear bomb on hiroshima in 1945. of
course we are talking about very very
old equipment that was last renewed more
than 30 years ago who knows what state
it's in but still the possibility is on
the table and this is something that
could contribute the escalating of the
conflict in any case obviously what
terrifies kizzy know most is that the
country could end up like ukraine itself
moldova's future depends on whether the
ukrainian army holds on they fight not
only for ukraine but also for us julian
gazra analyst at the institute for
european policies and reforms and
moldova let's see fortunately today a
full-scale invasion of moldova by russia
seems practically unfeasible the
military disaster they have faced in
ukraine may have completely curbed this
possibility now does this mean that
moldova has nothing to worry about well
it seems that nothing could be further
from the truth
in this case moscow has other weapons
what's more president sandu came to
power in 2020 with a message clearly
critical of moscow and very pro-european
meanwhile her electoral opponent and
current opposition leader is quite the
opposite igor dodon leader of the
socialist party is a pro-russian and
markedly anti-western politician so is
the kremlin thinking about a switching
the leader operation how might it try to
achieve this goal what real threat does
moldova face well let's answer these
questions concretely but first let's
look at what exactly the russians might
want to achieve in this tiny
impoverished eastern european country
listen up
on the path to the european union
on 15th november 2020 maya sandu won the
elections by an overwhelming majority
among the diaspora she obtained no less
than 93 percent of the support this
meant the departure from power of the
pro-russian faction of moldovan politics
it came as a surprise to moscow their
ally igor dodon appeared to have
enormous power he had subdued virtually
all the country's institutions and had a
majority in parliament it's even
suspected suspected is putting it
lightly that he used this enormous
concentration of power to illegally
surveil his political opponents as if
that were not enough he also received
significant financial and political
support from moscow but he was not
successful even with all that
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the internal wars between the various
pro-russian factions and the growing
popular discontent meant that in the
late 2020s the old moldovan debate
between looking more to the west or
looking more to russia clearly leans
towards looking to the west and
attempting to integration into the
european union however sandhu's main
promise was the fight against corruption
and unscrupulous oligarchs wait a minute
a pro-european and anti-corruption
message i think that cocktail is a bit
too much for putin's russia way too much
be that as it may we are talking about a
gamble that was consolidated in july
2021 when maya sandhu's action and
solidarity party obtained a clear
absolute majority in the parliamentary
elections now let me tell you dear
visualpolitik fans moldova is a real
disaster not only is it along with
ukraine the poorest country in europe
with a gdp per capita of only 4 500 us
dollars the equivalent of countries like
paraguay guatemala or el salvador but 30
years ago the country had 4.4 million
inhabitants today in comparison it is
estimated that its population could even
be lower than 3 million inhabitants in
other words we're talking about a
country that has not only experienced a
huge economic disaster but also a great
exodus of population in fact remittances
are practically the country's leading
industry they account for almost 16
percent of the entire moldovan economy
a good example of how things have been
working in this country was in 2014 when
the news of a banking scandal broke out
and quickly became known as the robbery
of the century in just three days
approximately one billion dollars was
stolen from three moldovan banks and
laundered abroad we are talking about
the equivalent of one-eighth of the
entire national economy the operation
was led by the country's richest
oligarch vladimir plahotnik with the
support of the government itself the
fact is that it was for all these
reasons that maya sandhu won the
elections in 2020 and she did so with a
very clear objective to modernize and
cleanse the country of corruption in
order to put it on the path of the
european union as you can imagine the
kremlin is not at all happy about this
and in fact shortly after the new
president took office the problems with
moscow began the question is what
exactly can vladimir putin's russia do
to regain its influence in moldova
listen up
game change
the question is could moscow attempt a
coup to force a political change in
moldova this is something that could be
achieved in several ways first a false
flag operation in transnistria could
give moscow an excuse to unleash a
campaign of military and economic
punishment
russia will use whatever influence it
has to ensure that moldova has a
pro-russian government they're going for
regime change foreign diplomats speaking
to the economist they could for example
threaten well not just threaten to
attack the country with missiles or even
if they do ultimately succeed in ukraine
as distant as that may seem today try to
change the government by force this
would be the most drastic possibility
but they could also employ economic
warfare strategies russia could unleash
a whole economic storm on moldova
because the truth is that russia has the
moldovan economy by the throat
you see on the one hand the russian bear
supplies almost all the gas that moldova
depends on to run its modest industry
and to supply heating and believe me
when i tell you that we are talking
about a country that in winter is cold
very cold and it's a similar story with
oil moreover the main pipelines pass
through transnistria so the threat would
be more than feasible in fact this is
something moscow has already used for
political advantage for example in
october 2021 moldova was forced to
declare a state of emergency after
gazprom cut supplies by a third and
demanded that moldova pay more than
double the previous price to maintain
the flow of gas either that or accept a
new type of agreement
gazprom offered moldova new gas deal in
exchange for weaker eu ties russian
group accused of using energy crisis to
punish new pro-western government if
moldova agreed to modify its free trade
agreement with the eu and delay the
application of eu rules then and only
then would they have cheap and abundant
gas in the end it seems they met halfway
moldova got gas and russia got political
concessions but that's not all about 80
of all electricity in moldova is
produced by power plants located in the
breakaway republic of transnistria and
the russian-owned power company has been
raising prices considerably and forcing
chizino to negotiate the purchase of
electricity for very short periods of
time and so if one month the electricity
contract is not renewed or the gas
supply is interrupted the debuckle for
moldova could be more than considerable
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moldova is trying to overcome the
situation by building electricity supply
lines with romania but they will take
years to be ready the pro-russian
government never did anything to reduce
moldova's dependence on russia but
that's not all almost in desperation the
minister of infrastructure and regional
development has hinted that the country
is considering buying electricity from
ukraine but of course is it realistic to
rely on a country at war that is being
subjected to heavy bombing
energy freedom and independence have a
cost for us and after the start of the
war in ukraine we have no choice but to
pay this cost of independence andrei
spinu moldova's minister of
infrastructure and development of course
moscow's thinking is that all these
problems will eventually wear down the
pro-european government and lead
moldovans to embrace motherland russia
again and take note because an
intelligence assessment published by
estonia as recently as 2022 pointed out
very clearly that the kremlin was
already actively working to overthrow
the current pro-european government
according to this report moscow would
weaponize precisely energy dependence
the influence of the orthodox church
with which putin gets along particularly
well and russian language television
and you know what the truth is that the
president herself has little doubt that
the political climate is heading
precisely in this direction
russian political forces in moldova have
already been talking about mass protests
and have been calling on the government
to resign and hold early parliamentary
elections so they can blame economic
difficulties and high energy prices on
the government maya sandhu president of
moldova visual politics fans moldova is
going through a very difficult time in
addition to the increases in the price
of gas and electricity there is the very
real impact of the war for example about
100 000 ukrainian refugees have settled
in the country a huge number for a small
and impoverished country in addition
about 14 of moldovan exports that would
have reached ukraine belarus and russia
have almost completely stopped
additionally inflation has shot up to 22
due to higher energy costs and also due
to the increase in price of imports due
to the interruption of traffic through
the port of odessa the main port used by
moldovan trade remember that we're
talking about a landlocked country
[Music]
to make matters worse remittances from
countries in conflict are also
plummeting and russia alone accounts for
more than 10 of all the income moldova
earns in this way that is the kremlin
might be tempted to complicate things
further with protests in the streets of
transnistria power and gas cuts or even
the threat of military action you know
supposedly to protect the culturally
russian population perhaps the best news
so far for moldova has been precisely
how badly things are going for the
russian military in ukraine but having
said all that it's your turn do you
think putin will eventually try to
change the moldovan government will this
be the way to further escalate the
conflict of course leave us your
comments down below and if you did find
this video interesting don't forget to
like and subscribe to visualpolitik all
the best i'll see you in the next one
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