Hey everybody! In today's video,
I'm gonna deliver what I call this state of the restaurant industry for 2019.
So, the state of the restaurant industry.
What is happening in the restaurant industry and what's gonna happen in 2019?
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Hey everybody Ryan Gromfin here.
Author, speaker, chef, restaurateur
and the founder of the restaurant boss.com.
As well as, clickbacon, and this is the
state of the restaurant industry coming out for 2019.
So I've got my little trusty note card here.
That's gonna help me out because there's some stats.
But, really there's three things that we need to look at as we look into 2019.
I always like to do a review of the stats. What happened in 18?
And, what do we predict is gonna happen in 19?
Then, we're gonna talk a little bit about technology.
It's really becoming a major player here in 2019 even more than it was in 18.
And, then we're gonna talk about boy bands.
What a boy bands have to do with restaurants.
Will stick around and find out.
So, first are the stats.
So, let's go over some of these stats.
So, the restaurant industry grew at 4%.
Which is basically, what everyone was predicting for 2018.
And it'll continue to grow at about that pace.
However, that's a slowdown from the historical growth.
Since they started measuring the rationale industry in the 70's.
It's grown at about 6.4% an year.
So 4% is still growth but it's a slowdown.
They're expecting about the same 4% growth for 2019.
So, it's good that it's growing but it's bad that it's growing at a slower rate,
than it has historically.
There's another challenge coming up and that is the
shrinking budgets, of consumers.
So, in the United States historically, consumers or
your average ordinary everyday person.
Spends about 12 to 13 percent of their
month budget or their monthly expenses on food and dining.
The challenge is though that's down quite a bit.
Over the last couple years from normal.
We're spending less on food and dining, as a whole than we have in the past.
So, if we combine growing restaurant industry but, a slower growing.
And, then a smaller piece of the pie or a smaller pie in general,
that we're taking a smaller piece of.
We're definitely gonna experience; maybe a flat or a slight slowdown next year.
Even though it's gonna technically register as, growth.
To you, it will potentially, possibly feel like a slowdown.
So, that's something to be aware of.
But, there are a couple of areas of growth,
that we need to pay attention to.
The first area of growth, is in fast casual.
So, think of fast casual as possibly, like a sit-down restaurant, but a really-really quick
sit-down restaurant, but really this is more counter service, that you're gonna
sit down and eat at.
So, quick service is going to be, order at the counter
and take your food to your own table or get it to yourself.
Fast casual kind of falls
into that realm of, it's a little bit of quick service, it's a little bit of
casual dining but, where I really see fast casual growing is gonna be, where
you order at the counter, sit-down and then service takes over from there.
There's a couple of restaurants like this here, in Austin.
That are absolutely crushing it and there's a few others that I know of around the country.
That style of service, that fast casual service is what's really gonna grow at a faster pace.
They're predicting, another year of 7+% growth, in that area.
However, off-premise growth is where it's at.
Off-premise catering and delivery has grown at 37% last year and
they're expecting it to grow even more than that,
maybe a 40% growth, again this year.
So, yes! Those Uber eats and those grub hubs and whatever it is.
That's helping, push this industry; are becoming a big part of the industry.
So, you've got to be taking advantage of that.
Now I'll do another video later on,
about how to best set your restaurant up for that type.
Because, I know a lot of you out there are concerned about, the percentages.
So, maybe go ahead and put
something in the comments here.
Are you utilizing in Uber-eats or GrubHub or Door-Dash.
And if so, what are your thoughts?
If you're not, what are your concerns about it?
And we'll go ahead and address those in the comments.
So, go ahead and put those comments in there right now, while you're watching.
And we're gonna tackle the second part.
Which is technology.
Yes folks! Technology is here.
If you look back, at some of my state of the restaurant industry addresses,
three, four or five years ago.
I wasn't a huge fan of technology in restaurants.
I didn't like Kiosk.
I didn't like self-service ordering.
I didn't like online ordering.
I didn't like these delivery services but guess what.
The technology is getting better.
Users are getting better, at using that technology, and technology is here.
So, you better be embracing it, like seriously.
You better be embracing technology.
If you don't have awesome online ordering, you better look into it.
If you don't have any type of self-service or Kiosk or Tablet or
something like that again depending on your restaurant.
You better look into it.
I have a few clients, who've recently switched over, from paper menus to digital menus.
It's been fantastic for them.
Just technology in general, is gonna
play an even bigger part of the rationale industry in 2019.
So, what I've got here on my notes are ordering Kiosks, online ordering and outsourced delivery
are gonna be the three areas to pay attention to.
Now, this brings us to the boy bands the third part, right!
What a boy band's have to do with the restaurant industry.
Well, again if you followed my kind of year end or earlier addresses in the past.
You probably already know what I'm talking about.
When I say boy bands and what I mean by that are, private equity investors are shaping the
restaurant industry.
What's happening with these private equity investors is that.
They're coming in with so many dollars because of their businesses.
They're not just restaurant people, opening restaurants.
These are business people, these are finance people, these are New York West Coast investors.
Who are investing in restaurants. They're finding brands that are doing well.
But, need money and expertise to grow, and then they're hiring the best
chefs, the best marketers, the best interior designers, the best exterior
designers, the best architects, the best lighting people, the best music people.
And they're building these like super restaurants or boy bands as I like to
call them because that's exactly what a boy band is.
Is basically a producer in an office,
who knows music and has a lot of money.
Goes out and finds, five or six kids, that are all good at one thing.
Puts them into a band and then hires the best
choreographer, the best stage designer, the best writers, the best musicians and
really those boys are just the front to a machine that's running behind.
So, your competition that you're facing is and you know it, because you're hitting up
against these corporate restaurants, is getting better and better, in the same price points.
So, we got to be aware that, we got to step up our game.
Here's what I'm suggesting: Tight concepts with clear messaging.
What do I mean by a tight concept with clear messaging?
Well, a tight concept is something that has
a smaller menu, a very specific market,
a very specific food product, maybe it's a
cultural type of food or maybe it's a specific type of food that varies.
Right! You've if you haven't, we'll put a link below here.
But, go watch the video that I have about.
You could either have a wide menu or a deep menu.
But you can't have a deep and wide menu.
This is what, I mean by a tight concept with a clear message,
or clear marketing, or a clear story.
Who exactly, is your customer? and if you say, everybody!
Go back to the drawing board.
Wide concepts are going to struggle.
The concepts that have huge menus, that offer everything, to everybody.
That try to appeal to Millennials and Gen Ys and Gen X's and Gen Z's and baby boomers.
You're gonna struggle, big time.
Even more, than you are already.
Quality of food and service are gonna reign supreme.
Well you might be thinking yourself of course Ryan quality of food and service.
We already know that but no I'm being really serious here.
Like your food has to be epic.
This is the first question.
I asked on when I get on the phone.
I might say, "Why is your restaurant struggling?"
They say, "Well! I don't know. You know, maybe this, maybe that."
I say, "Is your food epic?"
and they go, "Well! I mean it's really good."
I'm like, "No, no, no, no. Is your food epic?"
We went so far as, a client of mine.
Actually, they open up a taco restaurant and they called them epic tacos.
They deliver epic, that is their goal. Epic! Everything they do is epic.
When you take a bite of their taco, the reaction they want is epic and I got to tell you
they're doing it, and they just got investment because of it, from one of
these boyband investors from a corporate private equity group.
So, I'm telling you right now. Is your food epic?
and when I say service I don't mean white-glove
great service but Millennials and Gen Z'errs as they're calling it the next
group behind the Millennials.
We know service and we want service.
I don't need white gloves.
I don't need formality, but I need you to
be friendly and polite and I need you to be professional and I need you to know
what you're doing.
A lot of us out there struggle with that and again I'm not
gonna get into it in this video but I got tons of video on services and
systems and operations and hiring.
But your food has to be epic.
Your service has to be on it.
The best will do better.
Sorry for the long video but here's what I mean.
We're gonna face an economic downturn.
I'm not an economist.
I'm not a professional investor but we have been
on fire, in this economy for the last ten years or so, and historically in the
United States and in the world, we usually only grow for about seven to
eight, maybe nine years.
Before we see a slowdown.
We're coming into our tenth or eleventh year of growth.
Ever since the OA crash, we started recovering in 2009.
So, we're coming up on ten years of growth.
We're gonna see a slowdown.
How big is that slowdown?
I don't know but we are gonna see a slowdown is it going to
be this month, next month, this year, next year.
I don't know but we're gonna see a slowdown
and when we see a slowdown the best will do better.
Some are not going to survive.
Why are the best going to do better?
Because, when those other restaurants, the ones that are just barely getting by right now are gone.
and they will be gone.
Unfortunately some of restaurants are going to be on the chopping block.
If you're not already.
When there is a slowdown, the best are gonna pick up a little bit of your business.
So, if there's five Mexican restaurants in a community.
One of them is good, one of them is epic, and three of them are just okay.
If those three closed down.
The good ones gonna pick up, a little bit of business and the epic one
is gonna pick up a lot of business, not all of it.
But, all those diners.
Don't need to go out for those other two restaurants to do better.
Just think about for a second, if only a few of the diners of the three
restaurants that went out, end up at those two restaurants.
Those two restaurants are gonna do better.
Because, even in a downturn, the best are not gonna lose business.
They're gonna pick up business.
So, strive for the best and I
know you're saying to me, "Of course obviously, we strive for the best."
I mean get to it.
Stop setting goals and not following through on them.
Stop saying, you're gonna do it tomorrow.
Stop saying, it's my staff's fault.
Stop saying it's this. Stop saying it's that.
Things are gonna change.
Get on it.
I love the restaurant business.
I love where we're going in the future.
I love working with people, who want to be the best.
Because they're gonna be the survivors and they're gonna thrive.
I apologize for the long video here.
It may have sounded a little grim and to be honest with you.
I see 2019, as a little bit grim for some.
But, for those that are crushing it, for those that know the rule
for success, for those that are working with coaches and mentors and professionals.
You guys are gonna do awesome in the future.
Leverage the technology.
Study the statistics, know what's going on out there with
your competitors and what's happening in the economy and everything around you, and
2019 is going to be a fantastic year for you.
So, set some goals but more importantly; follow through on your actions.
Pursue those goals and don't stop until you've completed them.
Welcome to 2019 folks! It's just around the corner.
My name's Ryan Gromfin and with the Restaurant Boss.
If, there's anything I could do to help you.
If you have a question, post it below and I'll see you in next week's video.
Have a wonderful day.
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