And for once, the predictions came true. French President Enmanuel Macron not only won,
but crushed his rival Marine Le Pen, in the second round of the French presidential election.
We are talking about no less than 16 points difference,
approximately 58% for Macron, 42% for Le Pen.
Yes, the margin was smaller than in the previous presidential elections in which
these two politicians also faced each other and in which the difference was 32 points, but we
are still talking about a huge difference in a country where reelection is not exactly common.
Macron's victory marks the first time in 20 years that a French president has won a second
term. And the first in more than 50 years that he has done so by completely dominating
political life without having to work with a government and a Prime Minister of a different
party elected by the National Assembly. The first time in more than 50 years.
You can’t deny that it is all a bit political. Even more so if we take into account that the
reelection has taken place after a pandemic, a crisis and in the midst of a huge inflationary
spiral. And on top of that, the abstention rate was enormous. And what can I say,
when you want to change or prefer the alternative, you do not stay at home.
In other words, we can almost speak of a new Sun King for French politics. He is not the
most beloved leader and has a reputation for authoritarianism, but he has command in term.
And yes, the most shocking thing of all is that the French are not particularly fond of
him. In opinion polls, he is regularly accused of being arrogant, authoritarian and snobbish.
I'm sure photos like this one don't help:
And not only that. We can’t even say that his political proposals seemed to dazzle the masses.
In the first round, almost 60% of French voters supported the
extreme right or extreme left candidates. In fact, his victory was accompanied by an
abstention rate of 28 points, also the highest in half a century in a second round. It is
clear that Macron does not arouse passions. But then, why has Macron made a clean sweep,
where is French politics headed, and what can we expect in his new term at the helm of France?
Well, let's take a look. 1(WHY MACRON?)
The French leader has managed France with a firm hand. In 2017 he came to power under a
banner of "neither right nor left", just himself trying to shape a new France.
Throughout his first term there were times when his presidency seemed close to the end,
yet he always bounced back. Again and again. Take for example the case of the yellow vests,
the largest protests in decades, or even the Covid-19 crisis where at the beginning, the
French were among the most opposed to vaccines. Today 78% of the population is fully vaccinated,
a higher percentage than in Germany, the United Kingdom or the United States.
But above all, he has tried to modernize France. And when we
talk about modernizing the Gallic country, we are talking above all about its economy.
To give you an idea, France's economy has grown at an average of 1% over the past 10 years.
And if instead of looking at the economy as a whole, we look at GDP per capita. Well,
I think a picture is worth a thousand words. Pay attention to this chart:
In international dollars, the French have been losing wealth for more than 14 years.
And even if we eliminate the effect of exchange rates and price variations,
the result is not much better.
The output of the French economy barely increased by 6% in the entire decade
prior to the pandemic. This is a much worse record than that of most developed countries.
In other words, as you can see, the French economy has been practically in a coma. If
we were to describe its figures over the last decade, even being generous,
we could say that they are disappointing. We are talking about a deficit of more than
6% of GDP, a public debt of more than 112%, an exorbitant public expenditure of no less than 55%
of GDP and practically no growth in recent years. It is difficult to find any statistic where things
are going really well. In fact, it occurs to me that a good indicator might be industrial
production, which in developed countries is at an all-time high. And France has traditionally
been a very industrial country. So the question is, how has France’s
industrial production evolved? Well, once again I think a picture is worth a thousand words.
In order to address this, Macron has made efforts to deregulate the economy and reduce taxes.
Efforts that have been very well received by the business community and have,
for example, made it possible for unemployment to fall to 7%, the lowest levels since 2008.
His achievements also include the fact that France is having the fastest post-Covid-19
recovery of the major European economies. In fact, as you can see in this chart,
it was the only major economy to have recovered to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2021.
Among his first measures after being sworn in as president in 2017 was to abolish the
wealth tax. And among his great achievements, the reduction of 8 points in the corporate
tax along with the labor reform facilitating hiring and firing are usually highlighted.
Perhaps this is why it is not surprising that, according to polls, almost 8 out of 10 business
executives voted for the French president. But in any case, we are talking about small
changes. At least much smaller than what the French economy really needs,
but they have worked for the time being. And that is the line of work he has now
pledged to follow. Among his promises are to reduce production taxes for companies and
the self-employed by €7 billion, cut inheritance tax and achieve a deficit of 3% of GDP by 2027.
In other words, discreet adjustments and five more years of wild spending.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine alone, the French government has spent 22 billion euros,
that’s $23.5 billion to compensate consumers and businesses for gas,
electricity and gasoline increases. All coming out of the public coffers.
And indeed, estimates suggest that Macron's promises, far from stemming the bleeding,
will add €44 billion annually to the French government deficit.
If he keeps his promises, that is. Whatever the case, what is expected
is a much more aggressive international role. Macron wants to put Paris in the driver's seat
in Brussels. For instance, in recent months we have seen how he has wanted to play a very,
very key role in the Ukrainian crisis. Even if it has not worked out particularly well.
How could good old Emmanuel think that he would not be able to make Vladimir Putin see reason.
As it stands, it is now taken for granted that the French government will support
Europe establishing an oil embargo on Russia. But do you know what, the Ukraine crisis has
shown us one of the most volatile and fickle parts of this character. This is perhaps the
worst side of the French president: the eternal opportunism of Paris.
Listen up. 2
(THE MOST OPPORTUNISTIC ASPECT OF THE FRENCH PRESIDENT)
Over and above everything else VisualPolitik fans, Macron has been a lucky guy with enough
agility to move his ships off course when the wind was blowing in a different direction than
the one he wanted to travel in. The last example was the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, or rather, during the run-up to the invasion.
As we told you in our weekly Patreon bulletin and also in a past video here on the channel,
Macron wanted to take advantage of the tension on the Ukrainian border to gain some distance
from Washington, claim a European position of his own, negotiate with Putin and take
revenge for the affront suffered with AUKUS, when the Australian government canceled a multi-million
dollar submarine contract with the French military industry in order to make a deal with the United
States and the United Kingdom. And that was not the worst thing,
the worst thing is that Paris basically found out about it from the press.
There, see how little is left of France's influence.
At the time,
the French president said things like this: (C1: Europeans must stop being naïve [...] We
have to respond and show that we have the strength and the capacity
to defend ourselves" Emmanuel Macron) So when things in Ukraine got red hot,
Macron saw the perfect opportunity to kick the US government in the teeth. That's why, in the
European Parliament itself he came out with this: (C2: "It is good for the Europeans and the United
States to coordinate, but it is necessary for the Europeans to conduct their own
dialogue." – Emmanuel Macron, President of France to the European Parliament)
No common position, no reinforcement of NATO or anything like that. The European Union
had to go it alone to negotiate with Putin. Of course, it convinced no one. While Paris
called for European unity, Warsaw, Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Prague, Stockholm, Helsinki,
Copenhagen, Bratislava... Virtually all Europe’s capitals began to look to
Washington and NATO. It was the best possible protection, the only possible protection.
And to top it all off, then came the invasion itself. It was clear that a military response
was the only viable one. And there NATO wins by a landslide. Macron's plan went out the window.
And do you know what he did next? He quickly did a 180-degree turn.
A turn that has, in a certain way, also played a leading role during his campaign
of the second round, when he has adopted some positions of the left: such as slowing down the
increase of the retirement age or turning to the Greens. Exactly the opposite of what his
own economic diagnosis indicates. (N1: Macron waters down key pension
reform in a bid to woo the left. FT)
Evidently, power is power, and France is France, we are not going to blame it for its own nature,
nor expect pears from an oak tree. The problem is that these questions reflect
the major shortcomings of the French president: Macron has contributed to improving France,
but he has not brought about the radical change he promised. Nor does he seem ready to do so.
Now, Macron's victory means continuity in economic policy and also in foreign policy.
And, yes, at this point I’m going to make a personal statement: although the results
so far have been rather poor, it seems clear that he was by far the best option.
And I am not only talking about Marine Le Pen. The truth is that we could almost say
that French politics is adrift. 3 (POLITICS OF EXTREMES)
Pay attention to these statements: C3(As soon as the Russian-Ukrainian
war is over and settled by a peace treaty, I will call for the implementation of a strategic
rapprochement between NATO and Russia. It is in the interests of France and Europe,
as well as of the United States", Marine Le Pen) A statement that is better understood when we take
into account this other promise: N3(Le Pen promises to pull France
out of NATO Allied Command if she wins presidential election: Europa Press)
Le Pen continues to see France as a world superpower. A superpower that has to reclaim
its place in the world. And to do so, she sees nothing better than to rebel against NATO and
the European Union in favor of pushing for protectionist policies, to get closer
to Moscow and to juggle economically. Because Le Pen promised big tax cuts,
but also big spending increases. And what can I say? That's not usually a good combination.
It smells more like populism than anything else. Like when she says she wants to fight
inflation by punishing international trade and lowering VAT, which would boost household
demand even more and with it prices... Ahem. Well, you know that everything looks good on
paper. To give you an idea, it has been quantified that Le Pen's promises would
mean an additional deficit of $105 billion to reach a total hole of $266 billion per year.
Now you know how to make France great, France's debt that is.
Among her proposals we also found things like reestablishing the wealth tax, nationalizing
the freeway network, lowering the retirement age to 60 and paying families up to 100,000 euros in
exchange for having at least three children. VisualPolitik fans, during the 18th century
this country gave the world the concepts of left and right, now it is also leading a new
transition of political camps that analyst Gideon Rachman describes as
"nationalists" versus "internationalists". Between those who fear globalization and
those who embrace it as an opportunity. C5(There is no more left or right. The
real division is between the patriots and the globalists". Marine Le Pen)
Of course, that is limiting and oversimplifying the political spectrum.
Be that as it may, despite the result, the extreme right of Le Pen and company
is stronger than ever. And indeed it was ahead among the young and the working class.
Nationalism, Euroscepticism and rejection of immigration are gaining more and more followers.
And on the left, it’s pretty much the same story. The fact that the leader of the left
bloc is a candidate as radical as Mélenchon does not inspire much confidence either.
French society seems increasingly divided and polarized. And if things continue to
go from bad to worse in France, the outcome may soon be very different.
In the first round of these elections, the historic center-left was left with 2% of the
votes and the center-right did not reach a meager
5%. The political spectrum was divided between Macron's center and the extremes.
"Macron's biggest challenge will be to create a sense of cohesion in an
extremely fragmented country." Tara Varma, European Council on Foreign Relations)
But at least for now there are five years of continuity.
This is precisely why the re-election of the French president has been greeted with loud
cheers by virtually all international leaders, from Biden to Zelensky himself to President of
the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen. C7(Congratulations to @EmmanuelMacron on his
re-election. France is our oldest ally and a key partner in addressing global challenges.
I look forward to our continued close cooperation – including on supporting Ukraine,
defending democracy, and countering climate change)
Be that as it may, a new battle is now brewing, what is known as the third round:
Macron needs to win the June National Assembly elections to be able to rule as he pleases.
And, what can I say, given what we have seen, let's hope he succeeds.
Macron is not proving to be a revolutionary president, but at least he has managed to
turn the rusty rudder of French politics. Yes, it may not be enough, but something is
something. And amongst the alternatives there seems to be nothing but old formulas that are
more reminiscent of the old populist messages of Latin America than the more prosperous countries.
It’s clear that France needs many changes: economy, pensions, security…
In any case, what was surprising were the results of the elections in the French
overseas territories: they were completely different from those of the metropolis.
In the part of France that is scattered far away from Paris,
Marine Le Pen has performed particularly well, winning in places such as Reunion, Guadeloupe,
French Guiana and Martinique, among others. In some of them, moreover, by a wide margin.
What is happening in ‘overseas France’ and why does it seem so different from
the European continent? Well, VisualPolitik fans,
this is something we will talk about in an upcoming video here on VisualPolitik,
so don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already done so.
What do you think about the results of the French elections? What is your opinion of Emmanuel
Macron? Do you think France will manage to get back on track? Leave us your comments below and,
of course, if you found this video interesting, don't forget to hit the like button.
Thank you very much for watching, All the best and see you next time.