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welcome back to military update channel
russia's invasion of ukraine is already
one of the most destructive and lethal
wars in recent memory from the shelling
of cities to the use of thermabaric
vacuum weapons that's led experts and
civilians alike to wonder what if nato
and the u.s become directly involved in
the conflict nuclear war between
washington and moscow might look like
here military update examines two
classic nuclear attack scenarios a
counterforce strike and a counter value
strike the counterforce scenario
examines what might happen if russia
attacked america's nuclear arsenal with
its own in an attempt to neutralize
america's nuclear-capable bombers
submarines and land-based missiles the
second more devastating counter-value
scenario involves an all-out use of
nukes to destroy the united states
ability to wage war with the side effect
of reducing american society to a
pre-industrial level of development
before we begin we should note that
neither of the scenarios is likely to
occur in our lifetimes unlike
conventional war nuclear war is not
something that happens out of the blue
both the united states and russia
believe that a nuclear war is not
winnable and should never be fought both
countries also subscribe to a policy of
assured destruction meaning any attack
on either nation would result in the
attacker's destruction assured
destruction is a powerful disincentive
to using even just one nuclear weapon
let alone using hundreds in an
apocalyptic attack still nuclear war is
not impossible
the united states has been steadfast in
its refusal to become directly involved
in the russo-ukrainian war and for good
reason under article 5 of nato's
founding treaty washington has extended
the protection of its nuclear umbrella
to nato nations which means the u.s
would treat a nuclear attack on those
countries in the same way it would an
attack on american soil
in other words it protects them by
promising to retaliate in kind to any
nuclear strikes on their territory
however the us does not have the same
security relationship with ukraine as it
does with nato member nations and allies
such as south korea and japan as a
result ukraine has found itself with no
country willing to actively defend it
against nuclear-armed russia for fear of
entering into a nuclear war putin's
russia seeing ukraine as alone and
vulnerable decided to attack
in our scenario the president of the
united states has ordered the u.s
military to intervene on ukraine's
behalf destroying russian ground forces
units in the field and downing russian
fighter jets five u.s army brigades
backed up by fighters bombers and cruise
missiles drive from poland to kiev then
on to donsk the intervention threatens
to upset putin's chessboard and injects
a new force into the conflict that could
beat russia's army in the field
while this might result in a
conventional victory things could
rapidly take a sinister turn if u.s
forces routed their russian counterparts
and neared the ukrainian-russian border
russia might target them with tactical
nuclear weapons typically 20 000 tons of
tnt or less to stop their advance
once that happens all bets are off the
united states might choose not to
retaliate in order to avoid escalating
or it might well decide to retaliate
with tactical nuclear weapons of its own
at that point either side could opt to
massively escalate reasoning that the
first side to use larger more powerful
strategic nuclear weapons could gain a
survival advantage over the other
launching a first strike so devastating
it destroys most of the enemy's
strategic arsenal
all-out war
in our scenario we'll look at a surprise
nuclear first strike that leads to an
all-out war
one country decides it has exhausted all
other options and must destroy enemy
nuclear forces before it can use them
we'll assume russia strikes first u.s
strategic early warning forces abruptly
detect ss-19 intercontinental ballistic
missiles icbms
each loaded with a nuclear-armed
avengard hypersonic glide vehicle
launched from silos near orenburg russia
the six hypersonic weapons are not
particularly accurate but loaded with
devastating two megaton warheads 2
million tons of tnt so there's no need
for pinpoint precision avanguard
hypersonic glide vehicles rain down on
early warning radar bases across north
america destroying the sensors needed to
detect the main surprise attack
moments later russia launches its entire
force of 304 land-based icbms carrying a
total of approximately 1183
thermonuclear warheads the icbms would
target america's nukes including the 400
icbm silos sprinkled across the western
united states nuclear bomber bases in
missouri and louisiana and missile
submarine bases at king's bay georgia
and kitsap washington each location
would likely receive a minimum of two
nukes in case the first weapon fails to
detonate
the nuclear surprise attack known as a
first strike would primarily target
america's land-based nuclear arsenal
montana wyoming and north dakota would
receive at least 800 nuclear strikes
between them cities like seattle
uncomfortably close to joint base kitsap
the home of the pacific fleet's
ballistic missile submarines would
likely take some damage
the strike known as a counterforce
strike would be concentrated away from
major population and industrial centers
places like new york city the san
francisco bay area and entire regions of
the u.s would be spared
such an attack would likely kill no more
than 20 million americans and leave much
of the country intact
most importantly the strike would
preserve washington's ability to
communicate with its nuclear forces
moscow would then open a dialogue with
washington stating that the bulk of
american nuclear weapons land-based
missiles and bombers have been destroyed
but america's infrastructure and cities
are still intact russia's leadership
would then warn that any attempt to
retaliate would unleash the rest of the
country's nuclear weapons killing
millions more and destroying the us as a
military political and economic entity
how bad would it get
at this point the united states could
surrender and face an uncertain future
or it could fight back
fighting back would mean launching what
remained of its icbms and any bombers
that survived using them to hunt down
remaining russian nuclear weapons
bombers are particularly useful in this
situation as they could be used to
actively hunt down what remained of
russia's icbms particularly those like
the ss-27 mounted on 16-wheeled missile
transport trucks the navy would begin
hunting russian missile submarines
including those that might be parked off
the east and west coast of the u.s armed
with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles
would a nuclear counterattack achieve
anything in our scenario the joint
chiefs of staff argue that the united
states has nothing to lose by trying and
in doing so could attempt to reduce the
overall damage of an inevitable second
strike after all there is little reason
to trust russia at this point the united
states launches a counter-strike but it
is seriously hobbled by a lack of forces
with most of the u.s strategic command's
minutemen three ikebums and b-2 and b-52
bombers destroyed in the first strike
russia launches the remainder of its
nukes this time with an eye toward the
destruction of anything that could
contribute to the war effort the strike
targets america's remaining military
bases industry energy communications and
transportation facilities practically
anything that makes 21st century life
worth living cities are not targeted as
population centers but buildings
complexes and other facilities inside
them would be destroyed without mercy
the result would be near total
devastation with global consequences an
attack on just one city in the u.s could
cause fatalities in the hundreds of
thousands and just as many injuries tara
drasdenko director of the global
security program at the union of
concerned scientists tells popular
mechanics fires generating soot could
block sunlight possibly for decades
causing global cooling and shortening
growing seasons causing worldwide food
insecurity
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