Good morning John,
So I got some good news and I got some bad news about Syria
That's a lie. I only have bad news, it is only bad news, it is a terrible situation.
But there is no solving problems that you don't understand
So, here it is, in the next 5 or 6 minutes, we're going to understand Syria...
At least more than we did before...
Alright, lets start at the foundation of Syria
A bunch of Western powers are introducing the idea of Nation States to the rest of the world
They draw a shape on a piece of paper and say: "This shape shall be Syria"
Inside that shape, are lots of different sorts of people who have various degrees of historical and social ties.
There are Christians, and Druze, and Sunni Muslim, and Alawites...
And of course, Pluralism does not necessarily breed violence but we... lets.. just.. wait and see.
Fast-Forward to the Cold War:
The First World of the USA and the Second World of the USSR
are nabbing up alliances with the "Third World" of...everyone else
Russia nabbed Syria
through a combination of diplomacy and giving guns,
they helped the ostensibly Socialist Ba'ath Party, take control in Syria
The Ba'ath Party was run by Alawites, the leader was a guy who's lats name was Assad.
The father of the current Assad
And even though the Cold War is now over,
(though apparently no one has told to the United States defence budgets..)
Russia continues to be closely allied with Syria
And relies on Syria for it's sweet warm water ports which Russia lacks because it is Russia..
And here since the Ba'ath took over in 1970, Syria has become kind of a segregated place.
The scholarships go to Alawi children, government contracts go to Alawi businesses,
There are literally lanes of traffic that only Alawite people are allowed to drive in.
The majority of Syria are Sunni Muslim.
The official Sunni Muslim stands of Alawites is that they have rejected the teachings of Islam..
So that, combined with the fact that they've been repressed for like 40 years
creates some sectarian tension that during the Arab Spring.. broke open.
This is a struggle between a powerful minority and a disenfranchised majority.
Peaceful pro-democracy protests were swiftly punished by the Assad regime.
First, by putting people in jail (then they kept protesting), then they started to kill them.
then, they protested more violently, then they started to torture their children and kill their families...
It's bad...
Then a big hunk of the army defectors became the Free Syrian Army... Urgh...
Continues however to get more confusing while the original protests was pro democracy protest
and there are still many rebels fighting for a democratic future,
there are now tons of different rebel groups who all want different things,
and some of them like each other. and some of them don't:
Some of them love Al-Qaeda and some of them love democracy
This isn't Star Wars. there is no rebel alliance, it's messy, and it's muddy and to make things worse,
if we are talking about Star Wars here, Assad has basically killed Luke Skywalker and Han and Leia
and blown up Alderaan and Admiral Ackbar's gone to.
Assad forces has killed so many Non-Alawite civilian and military leaders,
that it's completely unclear who the heck would take over if he left
Now, for years all of this was happening outside of the international spotlight,
But then - chemical weapons.
President Obama had previously stated there is a "Red Line"
and that if Syria uses chemical weapons... Something
And it looks as if Assad's forces did use chemical weapons.
Sarin gas was definitely used, and it was definitely used on the enemies of Assad's regime.
Now, claims to the contrary to me feel very much like 1960's America
where white people actually believed that African-American radicals bombed an African-American church
in order to make the KKK look bad.
Urgh.....
Russia has veto-powered the UN security council and they have never allowed the UN to take action against Assad
because Russia loves Assad, and he's the only ally they have in the Middle East, and those warm water ports...
Now, Obama wants to enforce his "Red Line" even without the UN support,
and the American people are like: "Oh God, No, not again, No!!!"
So the president's like: "Well, once upon a time it was congress'es job to decide whether or not
"we attack other countries, so lets let them decide!" which is funny because as we all know,
if congress were on fire congress could not pass the "Pour Water on Congress" act
Just like Russia needs Assad, Assad needs Russia
and so, Assad is willing to do a lot of what Russia tells him to do...
which leads us, to John Kerry, making the weirdest possible accidental act of diplomacy of all time
when he was like: "Yeah, I mean Assad can prevent us from attacking him...
"By giving us all of his chemical weapons! it's not gonna happen, but he could do it"
And Russia was like: "Oh! Hey! Ha! Oh! We.. we could do that!"
This is nice for Russia because now they get to put on the Well-Mannered-Diplomatic-Hero Hat which they
don't get to wear very much lately due to all of their corruption and dismantling of democracy and freedom
Plus, lets not forget that Russia blocking any possible action by the UN
is why we are in this mess in the first place
Now, it's possible that Russia is just enabling Assad's stalling
And if it happens, it will be extremely complicated to collect a bunch of chemical weapons
out of a country that Is In the Middle of a Civil War!
but it would be an excellent outcome to be able to enforce the international norm against chemical weapons,
not have to blowing anything up or ask congress to do anything!
but it comes down to it that anyone who said that they know what we should in this situation
is either being disingenuous or they don't know what they're talking about.
Maybe attacking Assad and empowering the rebels will save millions of lives,
maybe it will cost millions of lives.
Maybe the power vacuumed off by Assad will be filled with Islamists who'd be sympathetic to Al-Qaeda.
The problem with the future is that it is unknowable
and so, we don't really know what we should do
But there is something that We can do
Maybe not to the overall geo-politics of the situation but for individual people.
The Syrian civil war has displaced over 2 million people
and if you would like to join me in donating to the UN refuge agency,
that money will go to helping those people rebuild their lives.
John, I'll see you on Tuesday.