hello traders at samurai try to hear
welcome to this session in this session
we're going to be looking at day trading
the 30-year US Treasury bonds using some
of the strategies from the day traders
fast track program this is a new market
to me personally that is I don't trade
the Treasury bonds however we have I
think last count 11 or 12 of our members
are very active in this market so it
just asked me to give a quick overview
on a couple of setups just as a
comparison of how I might consider
trading this market now what is
interesting is doing my research in
looking at the 10-year bonds today so
we're by the way the date is it's Monday
the 12th of a 12th and it's 527 p.m. in
my part of the world
so we're during the globe accession
there's been a massive 142 thousand
contracts traded on the 10-year bonds
and on the 30 years has been close to 20
thousand traded now if we compare that
to the es the e-mini contract there's
only been 82,000 contracts traded so
there's a very very large volume of
course trading in these markets on a
daily basis so very very interesting let
me put it that way so let me just put up
the rest disclaimers we move right along
here understanding the risk what I'm not
giving you here is investment advice of
course it's for educational purposes and
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advertisement so let's get to the chart
and get into this so what we're looking
at here on the left hand side is the
thirty-year US bonds Treasury bonds now
what I've done is just looked at here
and just put up a 144 check so I like
the 144 tick has an example on the NQ
most of my trade is now I usually trade
the NQ of the 133 but 144 very little
difference but for our Fibonacci fans
there's the 144 and I thought just on
the right hand side rather than have an
anchor chart I just put up the 55 tick
for the globe accession now each one of
these ticks here on this market is 3125
so it's quite a size it's in tick size
so if we look at this is 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
tick movement in that move now if we
were using for an example here for tea
to set up we waiting for our clothes
below the 8 1 2 3 there's a good three
to four ticks or a good up to 120
dollars in that move but what I wanted
to point out I've mocked up the chart in
a little more detail further along but
what I did want to show is just as I was
just setting this up here's our classic
t7 we've got classic divergence here a
classic t7 and at $31 nearly got $31 a
tick there's some really nice move so
we've got here let me just scroll on a
little bit here at classic 89 be 200 be
so vis some music classic 34 be there's
a 200 be there so the behavior of this
market if you're taking your highs in a
direction we don't have our anchor chart
here there's some really good moves in
this market but let's go to a whole day
that I've marked up here so looking at
this here we can see very much we're in
a downtrend we've got a 2-1 setup you've
got slight of urgency
lower low slight divergence here to go
long thing you got your t7 you've got a
34b you've got here run you've got a t10
so there you've got a nice 200 B you've
got a a t9 of course in between you've
got to you've got a number of our t25
you've got a 34b now personally I would
have been stopped on this trade because
I like to tuck my stop two ticks above
the high and we can see here it actually
ticked up two ticks but then I had my
secondary entry there's a t9 now by the
way this is 5:00 a.m. in the morning so
we're in the Globex session still you've
got here at c9 you've got then a change
in market direction we've got divergence
here you've got a nice pivot bounce so
7:30 in the morning okay you got a t9
you've got a nice t3 setup here you've
got an extreme you've got a nice t7 with
divergence now is 144 we've got a t7
with the trend which we really love
these you've got there right your
classic 34b 34b so for people that are
sort of a general public that are not
members these are some of the codes over
different setups that we have but once
again the evaluation here is just about
how I feel this is a as a market well we
can see here that we've got some great
trends and that's really the most
important thing I had a a new member
asked me the other day about trading a
range I'm not a great range trader I'm a
momentum trader I like trends and I have
a rule but if I have to stop outs I'll
stop and wait for a new trend because
what I found from history is that if I
enter the market and I'm stopped out
twice it's usually because I've entered
a chopp zone and I'm just 32 trading
tight ranges just don't just knock all
that great at it I'm a trend trader I'm
a momentum trader I'm a scalper and
looking at this and by the way we're
looking at Friday's price action so what
was Friday's date the 9th
was so this is Friday overnight so come
Friday afternoon I advised most traders
you consider run packing up early and
having them having an early day because
we tend to farm with all markets we can
get very choppy but if we look at this
here you've got a nice t9 again you've
got two ones I haven't even been calling
all of the T 2's that you've got with
the trend so you've got a ton of trades
in this market and so it's a great
market so like all markets you want to
get to know the personality of the
market now what it also means is that at
$31 per tick if you have a t1 entry
usually means you're going to have a
stop of at least 4 to 5 ticks which
means you can never stop there of
probably upwards of a hundred and fifty
dollars so that means if you're staying
within your 2% risk parameter you need
to have somewhere around seven and a
half thousand dollars per contract to
stay within a two percent maximum risk
rule so that is a consideration that I
would want to be very cautious off an
example here this t9 signal we did not
get until we had that tick there so
that's a one two three four that's a six
tick stop so we're looking at about a
hundred and ninety dollar just to have a
stop two ticks below that swing low it's
about a hundred and eighty hundred and
ninety dollar stop which yes it was a
really nice move and one two three four
let's just be conservative say we picked
up five ticks out of that so it's yep
you're getting the moves but it's a stop
that would be a little concerned about
we're safe you're looking at the es
usually most stops a maximum of six
ticks which is $75 on the NQ fourteen
ticks which is around the $70 plus your
Commission's on CL maximum maximum of
eight to ten ticks which is 80 to 100
dollars so that is one consideration but
on the other hand some of the bond
traders we've got have been trading the
bonds for a long time and they know the
personality so you may choose of course
just to have your stop one tick above if
you're taking a t25 or a two to five
candle retracement trade well there of
course you may only have a three like on
this particular one here you may decide
because of your talk you may decide just
have your stop one tick above it little
swing high which means of course you
only have a three tick stop on this
particular trade so there you've got two
one two let's just say a three tick
target
now of course traditionally with your
swing traders you want to be going for a
two to one at risk/reward but if you're
scalping like we're talking about here
one to one is probably more than norm
and maybe your second contract you're
going to let trail now what I've done
over here is just put up a fifty-five
tick and let me just disengage some ik
here for you just just remove this so
what I've done is put up the 55 tick
because the market is much slower now
even though we've had twenty thousand
contracts trade this is from the open of
a session which is 8:00 a.m.
Sydney time Australian time and we can
see here that I would probably strongly
consider the 144 tick during the main
New York hours and looking at the 55
tick for the after-hours market and you
can see here you had a nice trade there
if you tucked two ticks above there you
mighty fine one sec you would have been
stopped there's your re-entry you've got
a trade here you've got its classic 200
bounce and as I say you've want to get
to know the personnel they give you
smart although they see you've got a
nice 200 B you've got a 34b I mean
you've got multiple other trading
opportunities now for scalping one or
two ticks as some of these traders are
doing and I can see why you like this
market but you just want to keep your
stops in fairly tight of course right
there you've got whoops just one candle
too early there you've got a nice T to
there you've got a nice T to here you
got a tee to here you had a a tee to on
this candle right there
now for those that are new to us at t2
is a very mechanical approach to trading
and it's basically what I call 95% rules
based the discretion is do I have a
trend and to make sure we're not around
any red flag news announcements and of
course it would be recommended trade as
you're looking at a time frame three
times higher
as far as confirming the trend so in
summary I can see the there's some huge
volume looking at this during the volume
during the New York hours on the both
the 10-year notes and the 30-year notes
if you're used to trading as I say with
all traders with yeah with all traders
in all markets if you're really good at
one market and you become a member of a
day traders fast track program what you
do you look at what we do and you say
how can I apply these strategies to what
I already know how can I make or do
better and apply these and make what I
currently do better and because I can
see some great trades in now you may
find and just in closing that volume
chart charts work really well you may
prefer range or of course for many of
you your time based chance and for those
members you know that I love tick and
volume generally speaking i perfer range
on Forex by the way so hopefully this is
just giving you some ideas please drop
me an email if you've got any other
questions but otherwise a formation of
this market really if I didn't tell you
it was 30-year bonds you could have
thought it was really virtually any
market and that's the beauty of trading
of course is that day trading strategies
should basically work on all markets and
timeframes any stable good long-term
methodologies so one traders and members
that specifically asked me just to give
this quick recap I look at Louis nice t3
there okay you can see it there classic
so hopefully this was beneficial to you
thank you traders