Coronavirus. SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19.
It starts with a fever, followed by a dry cough, then after a week, shortness of breath.
As of the 3rd March 2020, around 100,000 people in about 70 countries are known to have been
infected with it. Of them, over 3,000 people have died. In response, governments around
the world have published guidelines for simple, sensible behaviour. And in the virus hotspots,
like the city of Wuhan in China, where the outbreak began, not only is travel restricted,
millions of residents are quarantined in their own homes.
Concern over the spread of the virus has had a huge impact on the global economy. Tourists
are cancelling their travel plans; airlines are cancelling flights. International sporting
events have been or might be indefinitely postponed. Wall Street had its worst crash
since the 2007 recession, wiping $5 trillion off the value of the global stock market.
Hollywood studios are considering delaying the release of major blockbusters in case
audiences choose not to enjoy the communal cinema experience.
But should we really be worried about coronavirus?
Well, it all depends on how you look at it.
You’ve probably heard some people say that the common flu, which affects people in every
country on a regular seasonal basis, kills more people than coronavirus. This is true.
The flu is expected to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people worldwide this year, out
of up to 5 million severe cases. That number eclipses the 3,000 people killed by coronavirus
so far. Some say this statistic is enough to give us confidence that COVID-19 is nothing
to worry about.
Then again, the rate of fatalities might be enough to cause concern. The mortality rate
of coronavirus cases so far is between 1 and 2%, about 10 times larger than the mortality
rate of seasonal flu.
But, it is important to remember that, historically, other outbreaks have been deadlier. The 2003
outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, had a mortality rate of 10%. The
2014 outbreak of ebola virus had a mortality rate of 40%.
And let’s not forget how worried people were during the 2009 outbreak of swine flu,
which had a mortality rate of just 0.02%.
In fact, the death rate from COVID-19 might be much lower than 2%. Infectious disease
specialists at Imperial College London estimate that we have detected only one third of COVID-19
cases, which means the current death rate could fall as doctors diagnose more patients
and learn more about the disease. At the same time, this huge number of undetected
cases could mean COVID-19 is already beyond containment.
Unlike flu, which incubates in the body for 2 days before symptoms show, and unlike ebola,
which renders its victim immobile too quickly for them to spread the virus very far, coronavirus
has an incubation period of up to 10 days, or as many as 24 days according to some experts.
This means someone infected with COVID-19 has ample opportunity to unwittingly spread
the virus as they go about their daily business. I could have it now and not realise it, and
I might have given it to many people in the last few days.
Therein lies the problem. If this outbreak cannot be contained, it might last as long
as the Spanish flu pandemic in the aftermath of the First World War. From January 1918
to December 1920, it infected nearly a third of the world’s population, with a confirmed
death rate of 5%, meaning it killed at least 40 million people. But the pandemic may have
killed as many as 100 million people. Given enough time, perhaps even the 2% (or lower)
death rate of COVID-19 will result in similarly sobering statistics. And COVID-19 is at least
twice as contagious as flu. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimated that up to 70% of
the global population will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19.
According to the World Health Organisation, COVID-19 definitely has pandemic potential.
Yet according to other experts, we have already entered the early stages of a pandemic. For
the record, the World Health Organisation defines a pandemic as “the worldwide spread
of a new disease”. The Cambridge English dictionary defines “worldwide” as “existing
or happening in all parts of the world”. As far as I can tell, it’s all semantics:
if you wish, you could plausibly say that coronavirus is a pandemic. In which case,
compared to other pandemics in history, the statistics aren’t that bad. But at the same
time, you would be entirely correct to say that coronavirus is not a pandemic yet, and
may never be. So, in either case, why worry?
After all, the people most likely to die from coronavirus are the elderly, especially those
over 70, and those with pre-existing conditions like asthma, diabetes and heart disease. These
are the same people who are most likely to die from seasonal flu in the western world.
So when someone tells you not to worry about coronavirus because you’re young, fit and
healthy, they sound sensible. But remember that to young people in the developing world,
the seasonal flu can be statistically just as deadly as it is to the elderly in North
America. And we never worry about flu, do we?
The World Health Organisation says the COVID-19 outbreak has taken us into uncharted territory.
Its chief says the virus is unique but it can be contained. Encouragingly he says, “We
can push this virus back.” But we must act immediately to achieve this.
So, perhaps the best course of action is not to worry. Instead, be sensible. Follow the
advice from health officials and experts. Wash your hands thoroughly and frequently
with soap or hand sanitiser. Don’t touch your eyes, nose or mouth with unclean hands.
Cover your mouth and nose when you cough and sneeze - but don’t use your hands, use a
tissue. And put that tissue straight in the bin, don’t save it for further use or leave
it lying around. Try to avoid contact with people who are unwell. And if you’re unwell,
stay at home. Don’t visit other people. Don’t visit your doctor or a hospital. Call
a medical helpline. The worst thing that can happen is that people panic and governments
don’t prepare, and health services consequently become overwhelmed by both severe cases of
infection and cases that don’t require treatment. Even worse, public panic has already led to
food shortages in some local stores in Europe and the USA, as people stock up on supplies
for some reason. Quarantined people in Wuhan are also failing to find food because they're
unable to go shopping. In both cases, it the poorest in society, who lack the money to
buy food in bulk, that suffer the most.
Big pharma and scientists are already working on achieving a usable vaccine by the end of
2020. Until then, we can do our bit by helping minimise the spread of the disease.
In all likelihood, the worst is yet to come. But that doesn’t mean we should worry, as
long as we’re being wise.
I hope you’ve found this video informative, helpful and, well, just interesting. Click
the links on screen to discover more interesting things. Before I sign off, I want to say a
huge thank you to our Patreon supporters who are just the best. Hope you’re all safe
guys and I’ll see you next time.