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Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine... Russian troops have suffered
major setbacks: for example, they had to abandon the siege of Kyiv
after several weeks of trying to take the Ukrainian capital.
So at this point I think there are some questions that ring out loud and clear:
Why is the Russian army performing so poorly? How is it possible that they have not been able
to take any cities? In today's video we are not going to talk about the atrocities committed by
the Russian army. We are going to focus only on military strategy and purely technical issues.
Think of it this way: this is the Russian army. This is the Ukrainian army.
In other words: there is no point of comparison, Russia has a far superior military than Ukraine.
What’s more, if anything characterizes Putin's Russia, it is the militaristic culture.
We have already talked about it here, on VisualPolitik: the Kremlin has even built
a CATHEDRAL dedicated to its armed forces. We all expected that in a matter of days,
Russian soldiers would capture Kyiv and the main Ukranian cities. However, after more than a month,
Russia has not been able to take a single major city. According to some sources,
during the first month of the invasion alone, Russia suffered more than 20,000 casualties.
To give you an idea, these figures exceed the casualties suffered by
the US army during the entire 20 years of the war in Afghanistan. Of course,
the Ukrainians are also suffering heavy casualties... but that is to be expected!
Supposedly, those who had all the aces up their sleeves were the Russians.
In other words: the Russian military already had several failures in its history... but we all
expected that Putin's reforms were working. And what failures are we talking about?
From Georgia to Chechnya, all the wars the Russian Federation has fought have been bitter victories.
Yes, Russia won the Chechen wars but at the cost of losing thousands of soldiers. And I
know what many of you are thinking.... This is anti-Russian propaganda! But that is not the case.
Vladimir Putin himself was aware that his army was not ready for a modern war. And that is why,
in 2008, the Kremlin put all its resources into bringing its army into the 21st century.
For this, Putin counted on two key figures: SERGEI SHOIGU, the Minister of Defense, and
VALERY GERASIMOV, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. I want you to keep
this name fresh in your mind: Valery Gerasimov. If you are a long-time follower of VisualPolitik,
this name will be familiar to you. He is a military rockstar, respected throughout the
military community, even by his NATO adversaries. Many would say he is the intellectual father of
the "Next Generation Warfare" concept. In fact, we all thought that, with Gerasimov at the helm,
the Russian armed forces would abandon the Soviet heritage and enter the 21st century. However... we
are seeing that in Russia the old adage that was so often repeated in Soviet times still persists:
("People pretend to work and the government pretends to pay" – old Soviet proverb)
In today's video we are going to avoid focusing on the war in Ukraine. Nor are we going to talk
about Russian weapons. We'll leave all of that for two more videos that we'll be releasing in
the coming weeks. Because the question we're asking today is.... Why is the Russian military
such a mess? What exactly is wrong with the Russian armed forces? How is it possible for such
an authoritarian country, with such a militaristic culture, to have such a disorganized military?
Today, we are going to answer these questions but first... let's look at a bit of history.
(LACK OF TRAINING) We have all seen pictures
of Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainians. Ukrainian propaganda has taken it upon itself
to spread these images with great fanfare for all of us to see how they phone their mothers.
However, there is something very interesting about these images:
almost all of the soldiers are very young. In most of them, the soldiers are not even
20 years old. And this indicates one thing: they are soldiers with very little training.
This goes some way to explaining why Russian troops are dropping like flies
in the face of Ukrainian fire. And it also helps explain news like this.
N1(Kharkiv Oblast: two Russian soldiers came to the (Ukrainian) police to
ask for diesel fuel - Militarniy) Of course this news is pure Ukrainian
propaganda. But it is one more example of the many we have seen. Let's put it plainly:
Russia has a very serious problem when it comes to training its soldiers. Most of its troops are
conscripts doing compulsory military service. To give you an idea, it is estimated that a quarter
of Russia's elite troops, the so-called SPETSNAZ, are conscripts. And why is that, you may ask?
To understand this we have to go back to the times of the Soviet Union.
In those years, compulsory military service was two years. Virtually
all Soviet men had to serve in the army when they came of age.
This had an advantage: the Soviet Union had a lot of soldiers. But there’s a problem:
two years is not enough time to train for modern warfare. After World War II,
the great powers: mainly the United States and the Soviet Union, entered into an arms race.
The more complex the weapons, the more training time they require. This explains
why fewer and fewer countries have compulsory military service. For several decades now,
almost all armies have made a huge effort. And Russia is no exception.
In 2008, the Kremlin reduced compulsory military service. In addition,
the army launched a huge recruitment campaign:
they wanted to hire soldiers who were willing to forge a career in the military.
Professional soldiers, who could serve in the army for several years to gain
the necessary experience in modern warfare. To recruit soldiers you need two things:
money and people who want to enlist. Two things that are in short supply in Russia.
To give you an idea, today the Russian army has about 850,000 troops. Of these, only 405,000 are
professional soldiers. And these professional soldiers do not last many years in the army.
For example, a NATO sergeant can serve an average of 15 to 20 years. In Russia, it is
rare to find soldiers who serve more than four. To illustrate this another way, a fighter pilot
in NATO has to fly more than 200 hours in order to be combat-ready. In Russia, 100 hours is enough.
And I know what many of you are thinking, why don't they have a similar problem...
in Israel? We all know that Israel also has compulsory military service. Both Israeli men
and women have to serve in the army for two years.
However, no one would say that Israeli troops are
poorly trained. So what does Israel have that Russia doesn't have? We are
going to look at that right now. 2 (AN ARMY... WITHOUT SERGEANTS!)
In general terms, we could say that there are two ways to enter an army:
as a soldier or as an officer. Officers are trained in academies. In this respect,
Russia can give any other army a run for its money. Russian admirals,
colonels and generals are trained on a par with those of any other country.
Again, no one doubts the professionalism of such a figure as General Valery Gerasimov.
The problem is that an army needs more than just recruits and officers. In between there is a key
figure: the non-commissioned officer (NCO), in other words, the sergeants.
Sergeants are soldiers with years of experience who can train new recruits. They are a key figure
in any army. And this is where Russia has a very serious problem. Think about it this way:
it is estimated that only 1% of recruits reenlist in the army after doing military
service. That means that there are very few sergeants who can train new soldiers.
So why doesn't anyone want to reenlist in the Russian army? Aren't they supposed to have a
militaristic culture that glorifies the exploits of their armed forces?
Remember that Putin has even gone so far as to create youth militias.
That means, in theory, Russian soldiers have more patriotic fervor than those of any other
country. And yes, it is true: the dream of many young men is to enlist and serve the motherland.
But, once they get to the army, they are faced with a nightmare. Remember
this word "DEDOVSHCHINA". Check it out. N2 (Russian soldier shoots dead eight
colleagues at Siberian military base - SCMP) The soldier in question shot his fellow soldiers
after suffering months of hazing and abuse. “DEDOVSHCHINA" is the Russian word for "hazing".
To give you an idea, in 2006, suicide was the cause of death for 40% of peacetime soldiers.
In 2014, 15 recruits died from hazing. As you can imagine, with such a toxic culture
it makes sense that most Russian soldiers do not last more than four years in the army.
In fact, in 2009, Russia opened its first NCO academy to try to fill this shortage of sergeants.
But this is not enough. Every year, 2,000 new NCOs graduate... and Russia needs many more than that.
In the absence of well-trained sergeants, they end up with battalions led by conscripts with only one
year of experience. So, as so often happened in the Soviet Union, young generals pretend to lead
their battalions and conscripts pretend to obey. And you may ask, is it really Vladimir Putin's
fault that the Russian army is performing so poorly? What has this much talked-about
army reform in the Kremlin consisted of? Where is General Valery Gerasimov's influence? Well,
we are going to look into that right now. 3 (ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN)
The question you are all wondering now is, how could Putin have made such a miscalculation?
Everything indicates that Russia expected a blitzkrieg. They thought that the Ukrainian
army would not resist and that the civilians would welcome the Russian liberators with open arms.
Evidently this was not the case.
The question is, was there no intelligence service advising Vladimir Putin? Remember
that we are not talking about a small miscalculation but about a
full-fledged invasion in which Russia has accumulated more than 20,000 casualties.
Strange as it may seem, everything suggests that there is not. In fact,
the supposed disappearance of Valery Gerasimov is striking. He is the rock star of the Russian army:
something like the Russian version of General Petraeus in the United States.
Is it really realistic to think that Putin is micromanaging the war in Ukraine? Actually,
it wouldn't be the first time a politician has micromanaged a war. We saw it during
the Vietnam War. In that case, then US President Lyndon B. Johnson went
so far as to manage the minutest of details from the Oval Office.
The result was an absolute embarrassment for the US military.
(When it comes to the war in Ukraine, the Russian army hasn’t appointed a central commander til
April, right after their defeat in Kyiv. The new commander in chief for the war
in Ukraine is General Alexander Dvorkinov. He used to manage the Russian intervention
in Syria and he was the head of the army in the Southern region. Still, it is unclear how
much decision making power will he have and how much will Putin interfere in his work)
Also, think about it this way: over the years, Russia has evolved into a
personalistic dictatorship... and that affects the military as well. Think of it this way:
during the Soviet era, Russia was an unmitigated dictatorship.
However, the main decision-making body was the POLITBURO: the central committee of
the Communist Party. It could have up to 35 members who discussed all decisions. Today,
the Soviet politburo no longer exists and now we have this.
It may look like a caricature, but everything points to the same thing:
a personalist dictatorship. A political system where one man has the power to
make all decisions without any counterweight. And yes, this is noticeable in the military.
For example: in almost all countries, the armed forces are headed by the High General Staff,
which in turn reports to the Ministry of Defense. However,
Russia has a special army as well. A kind of Praetorian Guard for Putin.
We are talking about the National Guard, known by the name ROSGVARDIA.
This body was created by Putin himself in 2016. It has more than 340,000
troops and is led directly by Vladimir Putin.
In other words, more than a third of all those 850,000 Russian soldiers
are outside the regular army. That is, they do not report to
General Gerasimov or Sergei Shoigu. They take direct orders from the President. It
may surprise you but this is a constant in almost all authoritarian regimes.
Many of you would think that the military functions better in a militaristic
dictatorship than in a democracy. However, authoritarian leaders rarely fully trust
their military. That explains why Putin has created his own praetorian guard.
In principle, this "national guard" is not a body designed to fight in war. You could say that they
are a kind of militarized police. Their objective is to safeguard the territorial control of Russia
itself: that is, to fight against insurgent groups, terrorist groups and to suppress protests.
But remember that, officially, Russia is not at war, right? According to the Kremlin,
the invasion of Ukraine is a "special military operation"
to "denazify" a territory full of anti-Russian insurgents.
Conclusion? Putin is most likely trying to send in the National Guard. And that
explains news headlines like this: N3 (Twelve members of Rosgvardia were
sacked for refusing to join the invasion - FT) Think about it: this national guard is not trained
for a war as such. Sending them to the front is a death sentence for many. But remember
that we are talking about an entire political system centered around the figure of Putin.
Who would dare to argue with him at this point? Think of it this way:
practically all the key figures in the military and military industry are handpicked
by the President. His party, United Russia, holds almost all the seats in parliament.
Out of 450 seats in the Russian Duma, 325 belong to Putin's party. In other words, there are no
checks and balances on the Kremlin's power. That means that no one can question Putin's own
miscalculations… including the invasion of Ukraine.
At this point, no one can deny that Putin miscalculated his forces. He
expected that his troops would conquer Kyiv in a
few days and that the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians with open arms.
In a democracy, the intelligence services would have been free to inform the president. They could
contradict him and explain to him the reality on the ground. The generals themselves could
prepare a realistic strategy based on a more thorough knowledge of their military muscle.
But, in this case, what we are seeing is a former KGB officer,
with no military training, making decisions without anyone standing up to him. And
that explains failures like this one. N4 (Russian troops pull back from areas near
Kyiv, Ukrainian officials say - Euronews) (Ukrainian officials say Russian troops
abandon areas near Kyiv - Euronews) Once again, Putin is pretending that the
invasion of Ukraine is not a war... and he expects his national guard and army to pretend to fight a
special operation. The question now is to what extent will the old Soviet proverb still work?
Will we really see the Russian army reorganize and attack Kyiv again?
To what extent could Russia win this war without having to use its nuclear weapons?
You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always, don't forget
that on VisualPolitik we release new videos every week so subscribe to this channel and
hit the little bell so you don't miss any of our updates. If you liked this video,
LIKE it and see you in the next one. Take care and see you soon.