The World Cup is the biggest stage of all.
It comprises the game’s best players and is watched by roughly a seventh
of the globe’s population. So, in many ways,
it seems like the ideal place to window shop ahead of the transfer window.
But that’s really not the case. Why?
Well,
the first reason is the size and visibility of that marketplace. It’s very difficult to
strike a good deal or discover a player when the world is – almost quite literally – watching.
Previously, when a lesser-known player performed to a high standard at a World Cup,
he typically attracted a lot of attention. The tournament might even have been the
first opportunity many clubs had to scout that player or even see him in person.
The result would be a surge in demand and price, with that player’s valuation
rocketing on the basis of just a few games and whole series of knee-jerk reactions.
Today it’s less of an issue.
Scouting coverage is typically so broad that it’s rare for lots of clubs to ‘discover’ a
new player in such a mainstream environment. But there are still plenty of other pitfalls.
Chief among those is the misconception that
tournament performances are likely to be representative of club form.
Midfielder Kleberson, for instance, was integral to Brazil winning the 2002 World Cup. A year
later, Manchester United would sign him for just under £6m from Atletico Paranaense, with Alex
Ferguson saying at his unveiling that one of the reasons why United had been willing to sell Juan
Sebastian Veron to Chelsea earlier that summer was because the Brazilian was due to arrive.
But Kleberson was not a success and would last just two seasons. It was
also a mistake Ferguson had made before, with the signing of Jordi
Cruyff and Karel Poborsky off the back of their respective showings at Euro’96.
“Both had excellent runs in that tournament”, Ferguson reflected in his autobiography,
“but I didn't receive the kind of value their countries did
that summer ... sometimes players get themselves motivated and prepared for
World Cups and European Championships and after that there can be a levelling off."
But why is that?
Well, there’s no single reason why a transfer fails. Similarly, there’s no one factor which
determines why a player might perform better for his country for his club.
Sometimes, as Ferguson alluded to, players are simply more inspired when playing for
their country. In other cases, the tactical systems between their club and country vary,
with one better at accentuating a player’s strengths or – perhaps – obscuring weaknesses.
In addition to which, the player’s relationship with his club and international manager and
teammates might differ. National teams have a common language and a shared culture,
both of which typically induce higher performance and, conversely,
are among the biggest challenges facing players when they join new clubs.
But perhaps none of those factors are as important as sample size.
A player’s World Cup comprises at least three games but,
at best, would be limited to just seven.
It means that any team watching is only observing the player over a short period
of time – four weeks at most – and at the cost of understanding a raft
of important factors and seeing a player in the necessary context.
How well does a player deal with the physical and mental rigours of an eight-month season?
How well does he respond to changing weather in different climates?
Is his tactical preparation and focus consistent over the course of a year,
or are his World Cup performances inspired by the hyperfocus that comes with such an event,
which is usually the pinnacle of a career?
How well does he deal with social challenges? World Cup squads typically
bunkered within their own private resorts but, left to his own devices,
how well does a player fill his time and what impact, if any, does that have on his form.
That a World Cup provides answers to none of these questions describes what a world
apart it is. And yet clubs are sometimes swayed by the showcase it provides and
the cache of being seen to sign a player who has recently become a global star – In 2014,
for instance, Real Madrid ignored all the market and scouting efficiencies to
sign James Rodriguez, in spite of him having no natural home in their side.
Most clubs don’t behave that way. At the highest level, due diligence done on
transfers has grown to involve well-staffed data departments that produce reams of information,
as well as multiple scouting trips over the course of many months, sometimes even years.
At best, the World Cup is just another series of games to be logged and entered into a database.
Rarely, if ever, does it actually influence recruiting policy – and for good reason.