( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE )( BAND P) >> Stephen: HEY, EVERYBODY!
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE SHOW."
MY FIRST GUEST IS CBS NEWS' CHIEF FOREIGN
AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT AND MODERATOR OF "FACE THE NATION
WITH MARGARET BRENNAN."
PLEASE WELCOME MARGARET BRENNAN!
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) ( BAND PLAYING )
>> Stephen: HI, MARGARET BRENNAN.
>> HI, HOW ARE YOU?
>> Stephen: I'M GOOD.
BESIDES BEING THE HOST OF "FACE THE NATION" WITH MARGARET
BRENNAN, YOU ARE CBS'S CHIEF FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT,
AND WE HAVE FOREIGN AFFAIRS GOING ON OVER IN UKRAINE.
>> WE DO.
>> Stephen: DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON?
WE WERE PROMISED THERE WOULD BE AN INVASION ON FEBRUARY 16.
THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.
BIDEN IS SAYING ANY DAY NOW.
WHAT'S GOING ON?
DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE FROM YOUR GUESTS WHAT'S GOING ON?
>> I CAN TELL YOU ON THE TIME LINE, ALL THE BELLS INTELLIGENCE
SERVICES IN THE WORLD ARE TRYING TO NAIL THIS DOWN AND GET INSIDE
VLADIMIR PUTIN'S HEAD, WHAT THEY KNOW AND WHAT WESTERN
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES KNEW IS THEY WERE TOLD TO GO BY THE
16th TO BE READY FOR AN INVASION.
THAT'S WHAT THE MILITARY WAS TOLD.
BUT NOW ACCORDING TO MY SOURCES WITHIN THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE
DAYS IS WHEN THEY MAY START THE SECOND HALF OF WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A MILITARY ATTACK THAT THEY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.
>> Stephen: WHAT DO YOU MEAN MIGHT ALREADY BE UNDERWAY?
WOULDN'T WE KNOW IF IT WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY BECAUSE WE
WOULD SEE THE ATTACK?
>> IF YOU THINK OF THIS IN TERMS OF 1941 TANKS ROLLING ACROSS THE
BORDER THAT IS UNMISTAKABLE ABSOLUTELY YES.
BUT IN TERMS OF WHAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS DESCRIBING IS
SORT OF THIS PHASE ONE OF CYBERATTACKS, OF DISINFORMATION,
OF STAGING AN INCIDENT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND,
TODAY, YOU HEARD THAT FROM SECRETARY BLINKEN AT THE UNITED
NATIONS LAY OUT WHAT THEY ARE LOOKING FOR IN TERMS OF A
PREDICATE FOR AN INVASION.
IT COULD BE A CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK, A FALSE TERRORIST
ATTACK, AN ACTUAL ATTACK BUT STAGED BY THE RUNNINGS AGAINST
THEIR OWN PEOPLE, SOMETHING TO ALLOW VLADIMIR PUTIN TO SAY I
HAD TO CHOICE, I HAVE TO ATTACK.
>> Stephen: BY HIS OWN PEOPLE, DO THEY MEAN PEOPLE INSIDE OF
RUSSIA, OR ETHNICALLY PEOPLE IN DUNN BASS IN EASTERN UKRAINE.
>> BOTH SCENARIOS LAID OUT BY THE SECRETARY OF STATE TODAY.
SO, IN THE DONBAS AREA SOUTHEASTERN PART OF UKRAINE,
THERE'S BEEN FIGHTING THERE FOR THE PAST EIGHT YEARS.
REMEMBER, VLADIMIR PUTIN BACK IN 2014 DID GO IN AND SEIZE
TERRITORY.
HE HAS ALREADY DONE THIS.
HE HAS TAKEN CRIMEA, HE HAS HAD THESE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST, IN
THE DONBAS WHERE -- >> Stephen: AND THIS IS WHERE
14,000 PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN THE WAR SO FAR.
>> ACTUAL FIGHTING, ABSOLUTELY.
IN THESE BREAKAWAY REPUBLICS, THAT IS WHERE THE WORLD IS
FOCUSED NOW BECAUSE YOU HAD SHELLING TODAY.
A KINDERGARTEN, YOU PROBABLY SAW THE IMAGES OF THAT.
A DRUM BEAT IS BUILDING.
SOMETHING THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR THE JUSTIFICATION BY VACCINE
PASSPORT TO DO SOMETHING, AND THERE'S A SLIVER OF A CHANCE OF
DIPLOMACY, AND THE WORLD IS GRABBING AT IT TRYING TO TALK
HIM OUT OF IT.
>> Stephen: SO PUTIN, AND I THINK MAYBE LAVROV, HIS FOREIGN
MINISTER SAID, NO, WE'RE PULLING OUT, OR THEY ALLOWED CAMERAS IN
WHILE LAVROV IS REPORTING TO PUTIN THE TROOPS ARE GOING BACK
TO THE BARRACKS, THIS IMPLICATION THEY'RE PULLING BACK
FROM THE FRONT.
BUT WE HAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THEY'RE GOING, BRIDGES BUILT
ACROSS RIVERS SO TANKS CAN GO ACROSS.
IS THIS INFORMATION FOR THEIR OWN DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION?
THEY HAVE TO KNOW WE HAVE SATELLITES, THEY INVENTED THEM.
( LAUGHTER ) >> MORE THAN 60% TO HAVE THE
RUSSIAN ARMY IS ON HIGH ALERT POISED AT UKRAINE'S BORDER.
THEY HAVE MOVED IN FIELD HOSPITALS AND BLOOD SUPPLIES.
SO THOSE ARE THE KIND OF INDICATORS THAT SAY MAYBE THIS
ISN'T JUST AN EXERCISE AND SUNDAY THE 20th IS THE DATE
THE EXERCISES ARE SCHEDULED TO END.
SO THAT'S A HARD DATE ON THE CALENDAR TO TEST THE PREMISE
WHETHER VLADIMIR PUTIN'S CLAIM THAT THIS IS ALL JUST AN
EXERCISE IS FOR REAL.
BUT IT DEFINITELY, FOR ALL THE PEOPLE I TALK TO IN THE
INTELLIGENCE WORLD SAY THIS IS ONLY BUILDING, THIS IS ONLY
ESCALATING.
AND THE FEAR HERE AND THE REASON THAT THIS IS SUCH A FOCAL POINT
IS THAT IT'S NOT JUST A STORY ABOUT UKRAINE, ALTHOUGH
OBVIOUSLY ANY LOSS OF LIFE THERE, I MEAN, THE ESTIMATES,
YOU COULD HAVE UP TO 100,000 DEAD IN CASUALTIES, THE FEAR IS
IT DOESN'T STOP THERE, THAT THIS IS A TEST OF WILLS AND THE TEST
OF WHETHER THE WEST REALLY WILL, THIS TIME, SAY TO VLADIMIR
PUTIN, NO, YOU CAN'T GO ANY FURTHER BECAUSE, IN 2014, HE
TESTED THE WORLD, AND THEN VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN AND
PRESIDENT OBAMA SANCTIONED HIM AND IT OBVIOUSLY DIDN'T DISSUADE
HIM FROM TRYING AGAIN.
>> Stephen: WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND COME BACK AND I'LL ASK
MARGARET ABOUT UKRAINE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF JOINING N.A.T.O.
STICK AROUND.
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) ( BAND PLAYING )