Now that it’s clear Bernie Sanders’ impressive run for President is over, we can look back
on what I’ve identified as the four major things in his control that led to his defeat.
Senator Sanders announced his candidacy in a low-key address mainly to reporters on the
Capitol lawn on April 30th, 2015. He didn’t officially launch his campaign until almost
a month later though. The bare-bones official announcement revealed he didn’t think he
had a chance to win, and the one-month delay before the official launch of the campaign
showed that he underestimated the importance of starting early. For the first few months
of his campaign he thought it was more important to maintain his busy schedule at the Senate,
so he would only be out on the trail for long weekends. He also didn’t like retail politicking
- so instead of shaking hands and taking selfies after a rally, he would often just walk straight
back to his car. He invested much more time as the campaign wore on, of course, but what
he didn’t invest in the beginning definitely hurt him.
Although Sanders won New Hampshire and barely lost Iowa, the momentum he gained from a strong
early showing wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the fact that black voters didn’t know him
well enough, and he got hammered in the South. In the roughly ⅓ of the states or territories
with a larger proportion of African American voters than the US as a whole, Secretary Clinton
won roughly 350 more pledged delegates than Senator Sanders, but in the other 2/3ds of
the country, Sanders won about 70 more pledged delegates than Clinton.
So Sanders just had to be in the South more, but he simply didn’t have the time because
he started seriously campaigning so late, and his strategy was to focus on winning the
first three states - Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada - to gain momentum.
To his credit, Bernie’s performance with African Americans has improved, but he really
needed that support to come about five months earlier.
Senator Sanders is an independent, so he was always going to have a hard time turning superdelegates
- who are leaders in the Democratic Party - away from Hillary Clinton, one of its most
popular and distinguished members. To offset her advantage, Sanders should have begun courting
their endorsements long before he declared his candidacy, or at least convinced some
of them to stay neutral for a while. But the fact that Hillary began her campaign with
such a massive superdelegate advantage made it clear that Bernie either did a horrible
job at this, or just didn’t even try. His own fellow Senator from his own state of Vermont,
Patrick Leahy, even endorsed Hillary.
Besides their different approaches to the pre-primary campaign, one of the main differences
between Bernie’s failed 2016 campaign and Barack Obama’s successful one in 2008 was
that Obama fought Clinton to a draw on her turf by going into great detail in his policy
speeches, which made him come across as a sensible leader who could get things done.
Remember, Hillary Clinton pretty much ran the same kind of issues-oriented campaign
against both men, but besides his obvious natural talents as an orator and leader, what
truly separated Obama was that he didn’t just rely on young people and the left to
support him by wide margins, he courted centrist democrats, older voters, and independents
who like to see detailed policies.
Bernie’s campaign was frustrating because most Americans agreed with him on nearly every
issue, but Sanders never took the time to slow down and explain clearly to the American
people how breaking up the big banks would work; or how we would transition to tuition-free
public colleges; or how a reformed publicly financed election system would work.
Still, there’s no doubt the Democratic Party’s system of superdelegates, the Clinton’s
deep party ties, and the lack of attention Bernie received in the media placed the Sanders’
campaign at a disadvantage. Which makes his performance even more remarkable, that just
a few tweaks to his overall strategy could’ve landed Bernie Sanders in the White House.
But we also know that the Democratic System isn’t rigged because if it was, President
Obama wouldn’t have been able to come out of nowhere to beat Hillary in 2008, and Bernie
wouldn’t have done nearly as well as he did this year.
In the end, Bernie should be commended for changing the conversation and shedding light
on many important issues. What started off 13 months ago as a protest campaign by a Democratic
Socialist Senator from America’s second least-populous state, turned into one of the
most impressive runs in American history. It inspiring millions to think big and become
involved in the political process, which will help to push the progressive movement forward
long into the future.
Thanks for watching. Do you agree with my assessment? And if not, what do you think
was the major factor that held Bernie back?
I also want to offer you a free copy of the audiobook I’m currently listening to. Dark
Money spells out exactly how America’s political system has been hijacked by the Koch brothers,
whose combined fortune is the largest in the world. Go to audibletrial.com/TheDailyConversation,
link in the description.
Until next time, for TDC, I’m Bryce Plank.