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Ukraine is now an official candidate for joining the European Union.
And I'm sure most of you remember seeing headlines like this:
N1(EU grants Ukraine candidate status in 'historic moment' – Reuters)
Just as I'm sure all of you, or at least many of you, will have witnessed this historic
moment: The flag of the European Union is already
flying in the Ukrainian Parliament.
And in some ways this is hardly surprising.
Both from the point of view of European political cohesion and, of course, from the military
point of view, Ukraine has done more than enough to earn official candidate status.
Not only because of their tireless and courageous fight against an invader far superior in strength
but also because we can clearly say that in European politics there is a clear turning
point following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
After all, Ukraine was attacked precisely because it wanted to be part of the Western
family.
Hold on though, because this is VisualPolitik.
Undoubtedly, becoming an official candidate for membership in the European community club
is a huge boost to the motivation and confidence of the Ukrainian soldiers and population.
There is no doubt about it.
However, put on the brakes a second because the road to integration will not be an easy
one, nor will it be a fast one.
N2(No easy route to European Union membership for Ukraine.
Profound challenges posed by country's legitimate desire to join bloc must be recognised – The
Irish Times)
Do you want to know what obstacles Ukraine faces in order to join the European Union?
Will it really be able to become a member country?
What are the main changes it needs to make?
Well, VisualPolitik fans, in this video we will answer these and other questions.
And, by the way, if you like what we do, you can actively contribute to VisualPolitik to
help us keep growing and, above all, to keep improving, with more and better content.
So if you want to support this project and receive newsletters, bulletins, merchandising
and much more, you can now be part of our community on Patreon.
I’ll leave you all the info in the description.
But having said that, let's get back to Ukraine.
Let's be clear, joining the European Union is not like joining NATO.
Being part of the community club implies incorporating a lot of regulations and making a lot of changes
in the law, politics and economy of the candidate countries.
For example, it took Croatia no less than ten long years to become a member State.
Obviously this period is not fixed, it depends on each country.
Finland, which already had democratic institutions and an established free market economy, took
two years.
But I think everyone, absolutely everyone will agree that Ukraine is closer to pre-European
Union Croatia than to Finland.
For example, in order to become a member of the Community club, Article 2 of the Treaty
on European Union must be complied with.
This is an article that often ends up being a headache for many of the countries that
want to join the Union.
C1(The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality,
the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging
to minorities.
– Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union)
The question is, does Ukraine comply with all this?
Well...
Let's see, how shall I put this.
I think you all know that here on VisualPolitik we strongly condemn the Russian invasion and
that we stand in solidarity with Ukraine in its stoic resistance.
But what can I say, we would not be objective if we were to present Ukraine through rose-colored
glasses.
After all, if it struggles for being the poorest country in Europe, there must be a reason,
right?
Today, both Ukraine's politics and economy are far from Western standards.
For example, there is heavy State intervention in its economy, there are price controls and
a handful of millionaire oligarchs monopolize the strategic sectors of the national economy.
Oligarchs who, of course, in one way or another tend to be protected by the political apparatus
itself.
In fact, corruption in the country is rampant.
According to Transparency International, Ukraine is the second most corrupt country in all
of Europe after Russia.
And it cannot be said that there are many controls in place to try to curb it.
All this helps explain why Ukraine is exaggeratedly poor by European standards.
To give you an idea, we are talking about a country whose GDP per capita in 2021 was
barely 40% of the GDP per capita of Bulgaria, which is currently the poorest country in
the European Union.
And of course, with the war, things have got much worse.
The reality is, Ukraine has to make sooooo many changes that some experts estimate that
the accession period, if it finally happens, may take 10-20 years.
An eternity.
Now then...
Exactly what are the main reforms that Ukraine has to carry out in order to become a member
country?
What are the main obstacles?
Well...
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T1(THE DIFFICULT EUROPEAN PROCESS)
Let's see, if we had to define the European Union, perhaps we could do it with three words:
bureaucracy and endless regulations.
So the so-called accession process means that countries that want to join the EU first have
to adopt all EU regulations at once.
We are talking about a process that is divided into six stages: formal application for membership,
candidate status, pre-accession, negotiations, ratification and, finally, integration.
Well, after its ratification as an official candidate, Ukraine has now fully entered the
third stage: pre-accession.
During this stage, Ukraine or any other candidate country has to agree along with the European
Commission on the so-called "pre-accession strategy".
This strategy consists of setting a series of guidelines for Ukraine to include in its
jurisprudence the administrative, political and economic reforms that will enable the
State to implement European laws.
And we are not talking about a minor change, but about more than 130,000 pages of European
legislation that Ukraine will now have to introduce into its political and legal system.
And that is obviously a lot, a truckload of legislation and a very costly process of attempted
changes in all structures within the country.
Well, no one said it was easy.
Of course, the economy is no exception.
Ukraine will have to turn its economic model upside down and completely change it in order
to develop a functional, free market economy that can operate without restrictions in the
common market.
And this, believe me, is much easier said than done.
Don't forget that Ukraine is a country that has emerged from the former communist bloc,
that is the toughest Soviet Union, and that has never carried out deep reforms in its
system.
But we will talk about all this in a moment.
The question now is, does Ukraine have to start from zero?
Well, the truth is that no, it does not have to start from zero...
But almost.
Ukraine is associated with the European Union through the Association Agreement, signed
in 2014 and in force since 2016.
Under this agreement, the most specialized Javelin country in the world has been gradually
implementing some changes over the past few years.
N3(Ukraine's EU Association Agreement obliges Kyiv to pursue rule of law reforms – Atlantic
Council)
This agreement, by the way, has a lot to do with the course of events.
And you see, thanks to this agreement, the Ukrainian economy began to pivot from the
East to the West at full speed.
That is, from Russia and the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States towards the European
Union.
In fact, trade with the EU bloc already accounted for more than 40% of all Ukrainian exports
in 2020, that’s 8 times more than exports to Russia.
We are talking about a process that now, with Putin's invasion, far from slowing down, has
accelerated even more.
Take a look.
N4(28 April 2022: EU to suspend tariffs on Ukraine imports for one year, Kyiv grateful
– Euroactiv)
N5(29 June 2022: Ukraine, EU sign agreement on liberalization of road transport.
The agreement eliminates the need for Ukrainian carriers to obtain permits to enter the EU.
– The Kyiv Independent)
What’s more, at last, the Ukrainian power grid has been linked to the European grid.
Check it out.
N6(1 July 2022: Zelenskiy says Ukraine is now exporting power to EU – Reuters)
Be that as it may, the fact is that according to Ursula von der Leyen's own words, thanks
to this Association Agreement, Ukraine has already implemented about 70% of European
legislation and principles.
For example, among many other changes, public procurement processes have been improved;
official statistics have been brought closer to European standards and a complete reform
of the energy market, which until now was totally controlled by the State, has begun.
Even a digital administration has been developed.
However, let’s slow down, because this is Ukraine we are talking about.
And how can I put it?
Von der Leyen's figures, she doesn't even believe them herself.
The gap that still separates Ukraine from European standards remains plainly and simply
vast.
Do you want some concrete examples?
Then take a look:
Earlier we saw that according to Transparency International it is the second most corrupt
country in Europe.
Well, that is just the beginning.
In the index of economic freedom, Ukraine ranks 130 out of 177, it is placed alongside
countries such as Uganda, India and Alexander Lukashenko's Belarus.
In the Human Freedom Index it ranks 98th, practically on a par with Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan
and Mozambique.
In the Rule of Law Index, which measures judicial quality, it ranked 74th; in the press freedom
index, 106th; and in the democratic quality index, 86th.
Once the war is over and Ukraine can focus 100% on its reconstruction – in every sense,
physically, economically, socially and politically – the government of the day will have to
turn the country upside down to meet the requirements for accession to the European Union.
And it will have to do so on a lot of fronts at the same time.
It will, of course, have to implement the reforms demanded by Brussels, but it will
also have to get the country back on its feet, starting, of course, with the basic infrastructure
itself.
It is evident that a country that is physically and institutionally destroyed would find it
practically impossible to enter the European Union, no matter what reforms it makes.
It would simply be too expensive.
That is why when the war is over, the Ukrainian government will have to strive not only to
comply with EU legislation and Brussels' requests.
It will also have to act on these two fronts: According to Ukrainian government estimates,
rebuilding bridges, basic infrastructure and buildings alone will require between $100
billion and $200 billion.
And if we add to this the recovery of Ukraine's economic and productive fabric, the total
bill could be well over $500 or $600 billion.
Obviously this is something that Brussels cannot ignore when considering a candidate
for joining the European Union.
In other words, that at the end of the day, European institutions will have to implement
a sort of Marshall Plan to support reconstruction.
N7(The European Union will create a platform for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The platform will be used to determine investment needs, coordinate action and channel resources,
Von der Leyen said.
– Euronews)
The challenge here is to get this recovery plan implemented without the money ending
up in the pockets of the oligarchs who have controlled the country's economy since the
fall of the Soviet Union.
Because, obviously, if the European Union allocates a lot of money...
Which then serves no purpose, that would make the accession process very, very difficult.
Brussels seems confident that Kyiv will carry out a comprehensive economic liberalization
program...
But will it really do so?
That remains to be seen.
All in all, it is not the most difficult thing to do.
The most difficult thing is that Ukraine will have to completely change its nature as a
country.
As we have already said, it will have to implement community legislation, but that is not enough,
it will also have to put an end to the stratospheric corruption, and, for example, it will have
to create, among other things, a new judicial system that is truly protective.
All this, VisualPolitik fans, is much easier said than done.
How could Ukraine make a U-turn, will the oligarchs allow it?
And remember, we are talking about a country that has hundreds and hundreds and thousands,
millions of young emigrants all over Europe.
Young people with professional skills and in many cases good academic training.
Young people who could play a key role in the process of economic and institutional
reconstruction that the country needs to carry out before it can accede to the European Union.
In fact, let's be clear, without attracting the diaspora back it will be very difficult
for Ukraine to achieve the level of prosperity, wealth and development necessary to complete
its accession to the European Union in a reasonable period of time.
But, of course, in order for them to be able to return, invest or set up companies, two
things are needed above all: legal certainty and open markets.
The question is, how could these two things be achieved?
Well, some say that one way to achieve this would be to emulate the model of Dubai's Special
Economic Zones, as in the case of the Dubai International Financial Center.
There, British judges train other judges and impart justice following a special legal framework.
A framework of law that is very protective and very attractive to foreign companies and
investors.
Now, is this realistic, and is there even a remote possibility that it is possible?
Well... probably not, but cases like that of oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, paradoxically,
do give some hope.
Akhmetov, for those of you who don't know him, is the richest man in Ukraine, and a
businessman who always had close connections to Russia and the pro-Russian milieus of Ukrainian
politics.
In fact, he has been the main financier and shadow leader of the Russophile "Party of
Regions" with which he even became a lawmaker in the Verkhovna Rada.
Well, pay attention to this statement:
C2("Evil cannot go unpunished.
Russia's crimes against Ukraine and our people are egregious, and those guilty of them must
be held liable.
[...] This lawsuit is one of the first international legal steps against Russia to stop their ongoing
crimes, destruction of the Ukrainian economy and the plundering of Ukrainian assets."
– Rinat Akhmetov, Ukrainian oligarch)
Whether for money, for a future in Ukraine or for a sudden love of his homeland, or for
all of these things at once, the rhetoric of Akhmetov, owner among many other things
of the famous Azovstal steelworks, has changed radically.
Well, like him, many other pro-Russian oligarchs are suffering multi-million dollar losses
due to the Russian invasion.
Without going any further, Akhmetov's wealth has shrunk from its peak of $16 billion in
2012 to about $4.2 billion, four times less, according to Forbes data.
But as contradictory as it may seem, this situation could have a positive side.
Many of the big Ukrainian oligarchs have seen a significant proportion of their productive
assets shattered by Russia; and with them much of their ability to influence local communities
and national politics.
In other words, the destruction of much of their wealth and influence, together with
international assistance and Kyiv's change of priorities may lead these oligarchs to
accept changes in the rules of the game in order to become entrepreneurs in a competitive
market.
Keep in mind that if Kyiv really wants to join the European Union, it is going to have
to put a stop to all these oligarchs.
Let us say that it is very likely that reconstruction, social pressure and now national security
will be worth much, much, much more than the bribes and pressures of these oligarchs.
Oligarchs who, in addition, will have to atone for their past pro-Russian leanings, so it
would not be strange to see them suddenly flying the flag of the European Union and
reforms.
In short, in order to become a full member of the European Union, Ukraine will have to
become a democracy of a certain quality; It will have to adopt a free market economy;
It will have to introduce into its law and then apply the very extensive European legislation;
it will have to rebuild its infrastructure; It will have to promote significant growth
rates; And end the power of the oligarchs; and completely
change its institutions.
A very long and very, very complicated to-do list.
But wait a minute, because it's not just about Ukraine.
In order to admit such a large and troubled country as a full member, the European Union
itself may also have to change.
I am referring, for example, to things like unanimity rules.
You see, in many areas the European Union requires the unanimity of all member countries
in order to be able to move forward with various initiatives.
The problem is that the European Union is becoming so big that this is becoming increasingly
complicated, especially when we take into account the enormous differences that exist
between the member countries.
And to top it all off, Ukraine would be a powerful ally of Poland, a country that has
not been getting along particularly well with Brussels lately.
And keep in mind that this is a risk that some European leaders are already talking
about openly.
Be that as it may, I think you can see, Ukraine's entry into the European Union, if it ever
happens, will be a very long process, a very difficult one and one that is subject to many
conditions.
But at this point, it's your turn: do you think Ukraine will eventually join the European
Union, and will Kyiv manage to carry out all the political and economic reforms necessary
to make Ukraine a country that can compete with EU members?
Leave us your questions below, in the comments.
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don't miss any news.
Once again, thank you for being there.
All the best and see you next time.