Steve I'll start with you. Yeah.
This this wasn't very golden this golden week.
Yeah that's right. So they head into the party Congress
which starts on Sunday with some economic headwinds perhaps political
tailwinds obviously as Xi Jinping will most likely secure that president's
defying third consecutive term as they got rid of the term limits for the top
man as well as potentially the age retirement age limit.
So that political agenda for Xi Jinping will probably include some of him his
successors trumpeting the successes of Covid 0 even though there are signs that
the society across China is starting to get really weary about these lockdowns
and the ongoing Covid zero policies or static management as they call it in
China. But what's happening this week is the
plenum. And essentially they are getting their
ducks in a row ahead of the party Congress which is China's closest thing.
If you want to call it that an election where the new leadership teams will be
picked obviously with Xi Jinping at the top of that pyramid.
But the plenum is essentially fine tuning the policy changes or policy
points that Xi Jinping will deliver on Sunday including any constitutional
amendments and policy priorities that will be legalized and formalized at the
National People's Congress in the upcoming march.
David your take on the numbers that we got you know high frequency data or even
just the official data we got when it comes to just air ticket sales cinema
box sales tourism revenue down some 26 percent.
Yeah well I'd say one other thing I'd say is not that they don't send into the
Yemenis. Slogging is trying to for the
consumption. Was the consumption in the can something
you know in the holiday. So yeah it was like everything was done
and especially in a travel related spending by households.
And obviously people were avoiding long distance trip because open a concern
over a possible cost range. I'd call it Nurul.
And you know here's what we saw in the market in the holiday.
And when it comes the chasing PMI numbers that we got over the weekend.
We're back in contraction. What did you see as some of the biggest
drags that we saw. Yeah definitely.
For chasing. Because that was mainly the small
business and the service sector. That was the part that's impact impacted
the harvest in the China's economy. So was not a surprise to me because
everyone knows that the the economy particularly in the civilian sector
things up at. Steve you know when it comes to the
party Congress you're starting to see some signs you were talking about the
Beijing marathons coming back. Xi Jinping we're seeing not wearing a
mask as some of these national they are latching on to snow.
All right. Tea leaves.
Are they going to relax Covid 0. From my vantage point obviously I'm not
in China right now. Well I am in China.
I'm in Hong Kong. But I'm not on the mainland.
So I can't necessarily give that direct anecdotal evidence.
I have not necessarily seen any major signs that they're going to relax all of
a sudden. Covid zero.
If anything they're increasing some of the restrictions as reflected that we
saw in the PMI the services PMI with the lockdowns in September in Chengdu in
Lhasa in Delhi and other major cities. Right now if you're the head of
Communist Party boss in a major municipality or province in China the
last thing you want to do is have an outbreak allow an outbreak ahead of the
party Congress. So I think there's gonna be tightening
before there's any relaxation and any relaxation might not happen might not be
actually institutionalized legalised legislated until the National People's
Congress the annual session of parliament in March.
David you what are you looking out for on the Sunday then in particular when it
comes to economic policies what what is most pressing to you.
Well on I say nothing because. Yeah.
Actually over the weekend to what we would call the actually in last week
called our ISE was the on the policies or the real estate sector.
But in in our own mind that was just some technical adjustment in the market.
In the policy side that was far from enough to boost the reboots that the
housing market. So DAX I think people I don't buy a long
impulse to adopt and fall for the other policies that we are still watching
to see what kind of policies can boost consumption again.
But to be honest we think about today that the hurdle is the you know the
concern over the virus.
Containment measures so that anything you wants to do you must overcome the
hurdle personally. So that is why I say no I'm not.
So I'm kind of encouraged.
So we are still looking for some good news really good news but just a stupid
fight. We don't have any clue on that.