Kim Jong Un's recent disappearance from public view
has sparked talk of succession in North Korea.
Any change to the leadership in Pyongyang
threatens a struggle for control of one
of the world's most dangerous stockpiles
of nuclear and chemical weapons.
Despite state media showing the North Korean Supreme Leader
reemerge at the opening of a fertiliser factory,
questions over his health have lingered,
and intelligence agencies from Seoul to Washington
are left facing one key question - who is next in line
to replace Kim Jong Un?
When Kim Jong Un was handed power
after the death of his father, Kim Jong
Il in 2011, experts braced themselves for regime collapse.
The young leader, who had spent part of his youth in Europe,
only emerged as the anointed successor barely two years
earlier, and few thought he had the authority to hold the Kim
dynasty together.
However, the now 36-year-old dictator
defied expectations by removing threats to his power,
including the brutal killings of his uncle and half brother.
With few close family members left and his own children
believed to be far too young, the next in line
could be Kim Yo Jong, the Supreme Leader's younger
sister.
Kim Yo Jong gained international prominence in 2018
when she was dispatched to attend the Winter
Olympics in South Korea and became the first member
of the Kim regime to visit the country since the Korean War.
She is believed to have important roles
in political departments in Pyongyang
and is seen to be a top advisor to her brother,
including during his flurries of brinkmanship and diplomacy
with Donald Trump.
Based on the regime's priorities and the regime's propaganda
and what Kim Jong Un himself has done in the past few years,
is that his sister is very close to him.
Kim Yo Jong, who is in her early 30s,
is always by her brother's side, is obviously
a trusted confidant.
She would be near the top, if not at the top of that list,
of my list of who might succeed.
I think we have to understand that this is all at Kim's whim.
He has been purging, demoting, shuffling
leaders left and right, hundreds of officials
since he came to power.
And that's a way of keeping everybody on their toes.
And so if you're in that kind of environment,
then you're going to want to make sure that you're
in the leader's good graces.
US officials see Kim Yo Jong as one of the key regime insiders,
with one analyst telling me she has
been groomed for power and the propaganda game
since she was a teenager.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has travelled to Pyongyang
and met Chairman Kim himself several times,
including when he was CIA chief, made a point of saying that he
had also met Chairman Kim's sister on past trips,
as well as some of the other leaders, as well.
One person I spoke to who is directly
in touch with North Korean and Chinese officials
told me that, even if Kim's sister were to take over
as figurehead, the party would try to project leadership
in a style akin to that of China before Xi Jinping took
the reins, portraying something more
akin to collective leadership.
Analysts I spoke to said the Trump administration has also
taken its eye off the ball, as the prospect for talks
with North Korea that might actually yield fruit
have dwindled, and the team they assembled to try and deliver
denuclearisation has scattered in different directions.
Managing a transition with such high stakes at a time
the US is fighting coronavirus, if that were to be the case,
would be extremely demanding.
The speculation over Kim's health and whereabouts
has also highlighted just how little
insight we have into the North Korean leadership.
There are multiple Ints, which is Humint, human intelligence,
Sigint, signals intelligence, Geoint,
and that's the satellite imagery,
what we see from above, as well as open source, Osint,
and also Rumint, which is rumour intelligence, right?
But something like Kim's health or his whereabouts
or his status, that's tricky.
The search for Kim Jong Un appears
to have come to an end for now, but the episode
has served as a stark reminder of the potential
for a sudden dramatic change in the leadership in Pyongyang
and the dangers of having an unstable nuclear-armed pariah
state that shares borders with China and South Korea
and has a history of threatening the United States.