I've been thinking about this quite a lot and I become increasingly taken by
the dance of biology demography economy and sociology I see four things that are
particularly interesting in them and captivating to me first I believe there
will be more and more and more longevity some of your children will live to be a
hundred and fifty a few of them will live to be 200 they are already born
that is the future the question is whether longevity will be available for
everyone or for people who are willing to get on a plane and go get it
somewhere that it's offered or have the money to buy it and if it's to have the
money to buy it then we're in a whole new ball game of 90 91 I would also tell
you that I am captivated by the intellectual gravitational field that's
rising up out of Silicon Valley having to do with the future of health these
people have a different thought process the Elon musta Peter Diamandis the Ray
Kurzweil the Craig Venters they don't think in terms of linear growth because
they've grown up in the era of Moore's law which is it about every 12 to
18-month technological power doubles and become half as expensive so you're
dealing with an exponential capability due to computational technological
evolution so if I take three steps linear 30 steps linearly i would get
across this room that's 30 linear steps most of us think of progress in a linear
way we'll do a little bit more this year Washington will do a little bit more or
less next year but if I were to take 30 exponential steps that would take me 25
times around the earth so when google launches calico which is designed to
beat aging and they've got unlimited funds essentially they're not fooling
around when craig Venter last week announces the emergence of a new company
longevity Inc he's not fooling around he's the man that decoded DNA but one of
the questions is going to be what if we're unruly or make mistakes in our
pursuit of longevity by the way I think we're in the middle of that right now
we've created longer and long life with enormously horrific diseases
in the last 5 10 20 years what are for example we can beat cancer what if heart
disease becomes a thing of the past but we have no technological or scientific
breakthrough with regard to Alzheimer's disease which has a forty seven percent
rate over the age of 85 we will then be creating a world of 120 150 year olds
who will be demented for 60 or 70 years these kinds of horrors are part of the
imagination of the future of longevity that requires wise navigation the
challenge how do we match our health span to our life span to live fully
through our years with the least amount of suffering and pain and you know what
else the future of longevity will also probably have a consideration of the
future of the end of life as more and more people say under these terms I'd
like to keep going under those terms and conditions not for me second I believe
that this is a little bit of a downer one that I think we're heading to some
economic misalignment unfortunately our parents who grew up in a period of
shadow of the depression were quite frugal about their dollars saved very
thoughtfully and to their good credit were part of a very small generation so
that was an easy generation to support the Boomers grew up in a period of great
prosperity we've been excessively debt oriented a third of the Boomers have
less than a thousand dollars in their total lifetime savings and we just don't
have it baked into our DNA to be thoughtful about having money over a
long life and I would challenge this organization in this field how can we
not have financial empowerment and financial literacy one of the major legs
of the stool of the future of aging it's not a part of our discussion it has to
be I'm concerned that it's not just entitlements that will be strained as a
result of changing demographics but also because of the fact that beginning in
the 1970s we switched guaranteed pensions for the masses and turned them
into 401 KS and put the responsibility on individuals most of whom are not
exercising that responsibility very effectively is it conceivable that a
third of this next generation will be impoverished
as was the case a hundred years before and this will be a big generation so
will that be more work will that be more interdependencies and families will be
more charity and I would tell you watch for innovations and capitalism because
there are a lot of people with a lot of money who actually have big hearts keep
an eye out for what is going to be called social impact bonds there are
billions of dollars trying to find their way to the aging problems of the 21st
century third I think we're going to build the purpose for maturity there was
a purpose back in colonial times when their elders were few and they commanded
the family we have not created a purpose for older adults in this modern age yet
last year the average retiree watch 49 hours of television a week and I think
that's a mistake there's an African saying that when an old one dies it's
like a library burning down we have millions of libraries burning down every
day in this world and it's our fault for not being more creative about thinking
about the role of a long-lived population I'm taken by encore careers
I'm taken by philanthropy narang I'm taking by a new era of volunteering at
people's highest levels mentoring and yes even people with resources helping
to support family members which has always been the case and in times of
need we'll do it again I think we're heading for a time of contribution in
the family in the community and in the nation in the world I was intrigued a
few years ago in bezmen 22 and Nelson Mandela who I would say as a footnote
was the most extraordinary human being I've ever had ever met when Nelson
Mandela and Desmond Tutu and and Jimmy Carter and a few other the elders became
the elders we need more of that we need tribes of elders to lead us again not
just to watch a lot of TV and receive entitlement benefits fourth in last I
believe violated a do those last two that one of the big obstacles is that
we've got a particularly unpleasant era of political knuckleheaded pneus it's
just it just I I can't even understand how
ridiculous most of what goes on in that city is in this time of enormous
challenge and opportunity and last I think our field is going to blossom and
grow in fantastic new ways it's going to engage technology it's going to think of
new solutions it's going to become more Jerry active in supporting the life
sciences so that we can knock out some of these diseases it will inspire people
in the world of media and marketing and social media to be more considerate of
older adults and more inclusive of the intergeneration ality of our world I
think housing transportation public service police officers mail carriers
millions and millions of people throughout this country in this world
will wake up each day and think about how do i do a better job of helping
people live long full contributory lives with safety and security with a special
concern for protecting the vulnerable