well i'll tell you why uh... rec center warm out one does have three states
minnesota missouri and colorado where very surprised by that you know all the
sudden outta nowhere here comes a recent warm and we look into the numbers and
um... i think i've found a reason and i figured out
now trade center ms better with white evangelical voters that there were to
serve others
and uh...
and i want to show you
what the boulder turnout was
in these different states now
at one of the thing that's important to note here is that gingrich does better
in the southern states is from the south
he appeals spoke to the southern voters uh... throughout his campaign that's
been is focused
so first when you have a south carolina of voter turnout was seventeen point six
percent it's actually relatively high in these primaries but gingrich won out one
because that's near his home base ok so thats outline but when you look at the
other numbers when you look at a height voter turnout states
like new hampshire is a twenty four point nine percent
and florida was at twelve point eight percent as you're gonna see twelve point
eight percent is fairly high this is uh... of the people who could have voted
or percentage came out and actually voted
well uh...
in a high voter turnout states
mit romney does better
because he could peel store broader cross-section of republicans abroad
oppressed
brought a cross-section of voters now
i don't know silly greed that he should i think he's a total right winger as
well but compared to gingrich is said to arm he seems relatively moderate so when
more people come out the boat
romney wins
now when you look at the low voter turnout states and this is these are
amazing
but if i want was at five point four percent
uh... we had nevada at one point nine percent colorado one point eight percent
minnesota one point two the missouri five point seven
who won those well all most of those were rocking one by rick sent or
because what it's a carcass for example minnesota iowa colorado work office
straight
a lot less people show up it is not just going in checking off a box yet to go
there debate discuss and then uh... take part in the process right
so less people show up those of the guys who are what more motivated
either because they're very conservative
or because they're very religious
so santo rm
wins that category
he was in those days
space either and do that but then as i was
you know we're all results before i saw these voter turn numbers
but that doesn't make sense was there was a primary why the same from you so
well missouri
well that's because it's a primary that was not binding
that's why only five point seven percent of the voters showed up
that's why bricks and dorm did much much better it was like a caucus in essence
ca so few people show up tomorrow
sounds like paul i get it now
that if you noticed there's only one low voter turnout stated mit romney did well
and and i was a lot
there
a great percentage of the electorate over twenty five some electrical
republic inside
or more mins
and nearly ninety percent of motor format
they are motivated by very religion fischoff ador kore caucuses
the less than two percent of the people who could vote vote in those caucuses
so when those motivated more who showed up in nevada mit romney one
so now you get a sense of wife said two or more in those three states m
before it seemed inexplicable that all the sudden he came outta nowhere but
when you see the numbers it makes a lot more sense and so who is out to the
advantage of in that long run
why essays to their advantage of mit romney
yes there will be some southern states that the wool might go to gingrich as we
go ahead in the super tuesday but overall we've got more primary states
left we've got more states where you have a higher percentage of voter
turnout
that is to run these advantages of this
sent warm rise
is at least partly i deem largely a function but the fact that these three
states were caucuses and non-binding primary
so it's not like saint or mister gene will do well in other states as well
if this analysis is correct so we'll see how it plays out