-You guys, we're coming up on a full year
since the COVID pandemic
radically changed all of our lives,
and even though we just passed
the devastating milestone of half a million deaths,
there are now finally some real glimmers of hope on the horizon.
For more on this, it's time for a Closer Look.
♪♪
There's one question that everyone's been asking every day
to friends, neighbors, relatives, and that is,
"When will everything get back to normal?"
We're all itching to do normal things again.
It doesn't matter what it is.
I'd give anything to go wait in line at the DMV
and get yelled at by a clerk for asking to borrow a pen.
I want to squeeze avocados at Trader Joe's without
people looking me up and down for signs of fever.
Keep your eyes on your own avocados!
And yet, predictions for normalcy
have been all over the map
from as early as April to as late as next year.
-In a "Wall Street Journal" opinion piece,
Johns Hopkins health expert Marty Makary
claims we're going to have herd immunity by April.
-I think we could get there by the fall,
or maybe even by the end of the summer.
-The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
at the University of Washington says it does not expect
the US to reach herd immunity prior to next winter.
-By next Christmas,
I think we'll be in a very different circumstance,
God willing, than we are today.
-You and the president have suggested
that we'll approach normality toward the end of the year.
What does "normal" mean?
Do you think Americans will still be wearing masks,
for example, in 2022?
-You know, I think it is possible that that's the case.
-We are not in a place where we can predict
exactly when everybody will feel normal again.
-Dinner and a movie in New York could be around the corner.
The movie theaters are open with reduced capacity.
Indoor dining.
Will we get back to normal?
-I'm staying outside.
-Yeah, me too, actually.
-Oh, thanks for the tease, CNN.
Dinner and a movie is back in the Big Apple,
but not for us.
We're not ready to die.
Enjoy your Brussels sprouts and "Tom & Jerry,"
you suicidal maniacs.
In fairness, though, that's how we all feel.
Everyone has had that same conversation
whenever they ease restrictions on something, on anything.
"Wow, they're reopening bowling alleys. Amazing.
We should take the kids."
"Yeah, but not really, right?
And wear community shoes
and stick our fingers in a bunch of dark holes?
No, of course not."
Problem is, no one knows for certain when it'll be safe,
and we can't know for certain.
As you just heard,
predictions for when we'll return to normal
range from April to summer to fall
to Christmas to next year.
At this rate, I'm just hoping
to have an audience back for my farewell show.
I'm back in a suit?
So the first show they're back,
you're going to put me in a [bleep] suit.
[Bleep] you, Shoemaker.
I don't dance for you.
And look, caution is good.
We can't underestimate this virus.
It's been devastating, and every time
we think the worst is behind us, it comes roaring back.
It's like the McRib but with a switchblade.
We have to keep our foot on the gas
and stamp this thing out for good.
But there's also some genuinely, genuinely good news,
setting the stage for what "The Atlantic" called
"A quite possibly wonderful summer."
And look, I know I've spent the past year
starting each of these segments by rattling off
all the worst things going on in the world,
like a grandpa who immediately launches into a laundry list
of his medical issues when you call him.
"How are you, Grandpa?"
"Well, my sciatica's back and my winter skin won't go away
and my blood pressure's through the roof
and I can't find my hernia pillow."
"Well, what about grandma?"
"Hold on a sec. Barb? Barb?
The boy wants to know how you are.
No, it's not a scam call, you paranoid lunatic.
She's fine. She's the same."
So let's start, for a change,
by reviewing some of the good news.
Today, the FDA confirmed that
Johnson & Johnson's new one-shot vaccine
is safe and effective, especially against severe cases.
Pfizer said this week it will
double its weekly shipments by mid-March.
Pfizer and Moderna told lawmakers they can
dramatically increase deliveries over the next five weeks,
and between those three vaccines,
we could have a total of 240 million doses
by the end of March alone.
All of which means there's growing optimism
about the course of the coronavirus pandemic
and the possible return to some semblance of normalcy by summer.
And I got to be honest, I desperately need some optimism.
They don't teach you this in science class,
but it turns out winter during a pandemic [bleep] sucks.
It's like my soul has a hangnail.
The sun goes down at 5:00.
I'm wearing a whole outfit made of SNL swag from 15 years ago,
watching 20 minutes of some Belgian Netflix drama
before I realize I watched it already.
"Wait, Detective Bert Jansens? [Bleep]. I've seen this.
The body's in the canal, Jansens!
It's always in the canal.
I don't know why you didn't start there."
Last week, I told my wife
I was gonna regrout the tile in the bathroom
just to have something to do,
but then she pointed out we don't have tile in the bathroom,
so I installed tile in the bathroom
just so I could regrout it.
Also, I did a bad job installing it,
so we had to bring in a guy who I'm certain is ripping me off.
I mean, $1,000 per tile is too much, right?
So it's helpful to remember there is some good news.
Cases are falling as dramatically
as they've ever fallen,
and vaccine supply is ramping up quickly,
thanks in part to the Biden administration
delivering more doses to the states.
In fact, both Democratic and Republican governors
have praised the Biden administration
for streamlining what was,
before he took office, a chaotic vaccine rollout.
-The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki,
announcing just moments ago
the Biden administration now increasing
its weekly COVID-19 vaccine supplies to states,
upping it now to 13.5 million doses
sent out to the states on a weekly basis.
-The Biden team is doing a great job.
They inherited an empty cupboard.
They're slowly but surely fixing that.
-In terms of the vaccine distribution,
it's been seamless, and I was delighted that we had
a 14 percent increase in vaccine supply last week.
This is going to be very, very important for us.
Thank goodness we have that partnership
which is good with the federal government
and President Biden and his team
is working to assure that partnership
and not tear it apart, which I'm very grateful for.
Huh, so it turns out you can just buy more
of a life-saving vaccine and give more of it out,
and both Republicans and Democrats
will thank you for it?
I'm no political genius, but that seems like
a slightly better strategy than, I don't know,
personally trying to spread the disease
to as many people as you can, like President Outbreak Monkey.
Sorry, Former President Outbreak Monkey.
I mean, there were times
when Democratic governors praised Trump,
but it was with the dead eyes of a hostage who is worried
they'd have their bathroom privileges revoked,
whereas if Republicans criticize Biden,
their fear isn't that he'll punish them,
it's that he will show up to the governor's mansion
with a football and say,
"You and I are going to toss this pigskin back and forth
until we find some middle ground."
"Oh, actually, Mr. President, I was just about to go out."
"You're damn right you're going out. Down and out.
Hut! Hut! Everyone's my friend."
By the way, none of this means Biden hasn't made some mistakes
or that there haven't been disappointments
with some of his early moves.
There have.
For one thing, he seems resigned to dropping
a minimum wage increase from the COVID relief plan,
despite its overwhelming popularity in the polls
and strong support from Senate Democrats
like Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders.
He's flirted with narrowing the eligibility for direct payments,
and he's shot down proposals
to cancel $50,000 in student debt,
which also has majority support in polls
and would be a huge boon to the economy.
-We need student loan forgiveness beyond
the potential $10,000 your administration has proposed.
We need at least a $50,000 minimum.
What will you do to make that happen?
-I will not make that happen.
-Okay, enough of your Washington Beltway double-speak.
Are you going to make it happen or not?
-I will not make that happen.
-Oh, you DC charlatans, always trying to have it both ways.
Are you going to make it happen?
-I will not make that happen.
-Damn, that is not the answer I wanted to hear,
but I do appreciate his directness.
The last guy answered questions
the way a plane circles JFK when it's foggy.
Say what you will about Biden,
but in many ways, he is the exact opposite of Trump.
A reporter at a press conference could raise their hand
and suggest literally anything
and Trump would say he was considering it.
It's the only reason you could never trick him.
Mr. President, do you have any response
to the recent events regarding Updog?
"We're looking very, very strongly at Updog.
We don't like what they're doing with Updog at all.
It's not good.
Oh, I much prefer Downdog, don't we, folks?
Or how about just good, old-fashioned, regular dog?
Whatever happened to dogs without directions?
There used to be no such thing as Updog.
No Downdog.
No, Rightdog. No Leftdog. There was just dog.
Dog the Bounty Hunter.
Bounty paper towels, the quicker picker-upper,
they like to say.
A lot of people are saying it now.
Not as quick as it used to be.
Sad.
Tried to pick it up lately, and it wasn't so quick at all.
Slow."
I both forgot how hard it was to do that voice,
and how it was little bit fun.
I'm definitely going to have to ice my voice tonight.
Oh.
Anyway, the point is, the Biden administration
has certainly had some missteps and disappointments,
but they've also been bold out of the gate
with executive actions and their COVID relief plan,
and there's been major progress on the vaccine front.
The rollout has been streamlined.
Supply is up, and the news about
just how effective the vaccines are has been great, too.
A new study has found that just one dose of the Pfizer vaccine
provides significant protection against the infection,
and another found that the vaccines
cut down on transmission, too,
meaning the vaccines don't just prevent you from getting sick,
they prevent you from spreading the virus, too.
If that all ends up being true, and we don't screw things up,
we could potentially have a normal-ish summer,
Even typically cautious public health officials
are expressing optimism.
-Essentially, what will happen is it's a glide path down.
Number of cases will continue coming down.
More and more people will be getting vaccinated.
Things will start opening up.
We'll see occasional outbreaks here and there.
I'm expecting, and I've been saying it to folks,
and you're invited, John,
that July 4th, I may have a barbecue at my house.
20-25 people, and I think we can be outside
if everybody shows up vaccinated
and if everybody's gotten vaccinated
or most people have gotten vaccinated in my community,
which I suspect by July 4th, they will.
I think we can have an outside barbecue,
no masks, and be okay.
-Damn, I didn't realize it was at the point
where someone describing a barbecue
would sound like erotica.
You could sell a whole line of romance novels on this vibe.
I got chills thinking about a barbecue with 25 friends,
and then I immediately got sad when I remembered I'm 47
and I definitely don't have 25 friends.
For me to have a party with 25 friends,
I'm going to need the vaccine and a working time machine.
Get on it, Pfizer.
But honestly though, I can't believe how excited I am
at the prospect of making plans
Before the pandemic, I spent most of my time
trying to get out of plans.
Pre-pandemic, the highlight of my week
would be a friend texting last minute
that they can't make after-work drinks
because their babysitter bailed.
Now, if that ever happens, post-pandemic,
I'll show up at their house with some gin, a cocktail shaker,
and a board game that takes eight hours to play.
It's called "Ocean Master."
You score victory points by mining precious minerals
from deep-sea trenches, which convert to gold coins,
allowing you to buy islands where you grow wheat,
and whoever sells the most bread gets to roll first.
The directions are 500 pages long and only in German.
Now, this isn't to say things can't change for the worse.
If we loosen up too quickly or not enough people
get vaccinated or the variants get worse,
we could have setbacks.
But the streamlined vaccine rollout
and the optimism from public health officials
are a nice change of pace
after the previous administration,
which was so mendacious and detached from reality,
you couldn't trust a word they said.
Remember when Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows,
said this last year in the run-up to the election?
-Our goal has been to have 300 million doses by January.
100 million doses is one-third of the population.
That's pretty wide distribution, when you look at that,
and that's October.
-They said we'd have 100 million doses
by the end of October and 300 million by January.
Trump aides were less trustworthy than those robots
that call you about your car's extended warranty,
a call I get every damn day, by the way.
Side note, what's going on with that?
Who unleashed this army of robot scammers
trying to trick people into buying extended car warranties?
Are there really people out there who fall for that?
"Oh, good thing you called.
I was worried about the warranty on my 2003 Ford Fiesta.
You have a strange voice. Are you French? Ooh, are you German?
If you are, can I read you board game instructions?
[ Speaking in German ]
Seriously, I knew the Trump people were liars,
but it's even more brazen in retrospect, especially compared
to the overly cautious approach of the Biden team.
I mean, Biden's out here saying
we won't get back to normal until Christmas.
He's going to miss the barbecue.
Meanwhile, the Trump people were going around telling everyone
we'd all get vaccines in the mail for Christmas,
like they were free AOL trial CDs.
As we've said many times on this show,
things are still bad for lots of people
who need immediate help in the form of direct payments,
expanded unemployment benefits, a $15 minimum wage,
and a more robust vaccine rollout
in marginalized communities, among other things.
And the pandemic has also exposed
massive structural inequalities
and problems that need radical solutions.
We can't let up now.
The next few months will be crucial,
but there's finally some reason for hope
and some cautious optimism.
We could even have a party at my place this summer.
What do you say?
-I'm staying outside?
-Yeah, me too, actually.
-Okay, fine, fine.
This has been a Closer Look.
♪♪
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