Dictator Muammar Gaddafi ruled Libya for more than 40 years.
But when the end came - it was fast.
In 2011, the people rose up in mass protests.
Rebels killed Gaddafi.
The dictator was gone.
But the country has been in chaos ever since.
Fragmentation is the best single word to describe what's happening in Libya.
A large number of actors and communities and groups all effectively competing against each
other.
Militias, extremists and many international powers are ripping the country apart.
And there are even two rival administrations, each claiming they should be in control.
So how did things get so bad - and so complicated - in Libya?
Let us unpack that for you.
First, let’s look at the bigger picture - and what’s at stake.
Libya has a long coastline right at the doorstep of the European Union.
That has made it a major stepping stone for people looking for refuge or a better life
in the wealthy north.
The government chasm in Libya has enabled the rapid growth of things like human smuggling
through the country.
We've seen, of course, that this can allow a breeding ground for extremist groups.
Libya is also home to Africa’s biggest oil reserves.
And THIS puts it on the radar of other countries.
Any disruption of the energy supply coming from Libya is also important for Europe.
But also because it constitutes the door to Africa to some extent.
So the country if the situation was better could also play an important role as a platform
between Europe, Africa, the Middle East and possibly further.
And most importantly - there are six million Libyan people.
Desperate for a safe, secure future.
Thousands have been killed in the fighting, hundreds of thousands have been displaced
from their homes, and more than a million need humanitarian aid.
We can trace the roots of this situation all the way back to 2011.
The popular protests known as the Arab Spring swept through the region.
Dictators fell like dominos.
And Libya’s strongman Gaddafi was no exception.
But the way he’d ruled made Libya ill equipped to get back on its feet.
what Gaddafi operationalised as a system… is a divide and rule system to dilute the
relevance of anyone he would deem or any faction he would deem potentially a political, military
opponent, either by purging them or kind of marginalizing them from his patronage network.
He used both his tribal knowledge and his tribal skills, but he also used religion as
well to control the population.
Once Gaddafi was gone, tribes and militias which had united to get rid of him - turned
against each other.
In 2014, a disputed election plunged Libya into the abyss.
Key civil institutions like law enforcement and the judiciary collapsed.
But as we heard earlier, two rival administrations emerged, both claiming to be the real, legitimate
government.
There is a legitimacy vacuum in Libya, and all of the institutions or the governments
that exist today have had their mandates expire a long time ago.
The only reason that these institutions or these political classes or political leaders
exist today is because of circumstances, and it's because of the failure of the democratic
transition.
What makes it even worse - the country sits on the division line of a fundamental rivalry
that runs through the entire region.
The competition for power inside Libya between domestic players extended more regionally
and internationally.
You could also see in this confrontation between the two camps, two different models of power
competing in the post Arab Spring era.
A division between what was called at the time, the Islamist camp versus the others
that could be described as nationalist, more military oriented, et cetera.
Two broad but distinct models of power: one largely based on Political Islam and the other
largely based on miltarist nationalism.
And here is how that has played out in Libya: The side considered part of the 'militarist
nationalist' camp is the House of Representatives and General Khalifa Haftar.
He leads what he calls the Libyan National Army or LNA and is based in the eastern city
of Tobruk.
The LNA is supported by Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt.
Egypt shares a long border with Libya - and sees Haftar and his LNA as the best way to
prevent extremist attacks spilling over that border.
Along with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Egypt also sees Haftar as a bulwark against the
spread Islamic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood - which they consider a terror organisation.
On the one hand, you have those regional and international actors that have come to the
conclusion or to the idea that there's a need for a strongman that could contribute to restore
authority.
And so for them, stability, authority and even military authority are perceived as the
priority.
On the other side, you have the UN-recognised Government of National Accord or GNA.
It is considered to be part of the 'political Islam' camp, is led by Prime Minister Fayez
al-Sarraj and is based in the capital Tripoli.
The GNA’s international backers include Qatar and Turkey.
Turkey wants drilling rights in the Mediterranean but also has a shared ideological framework
with the GNA- namely political Islam and support for the Muslim Brotherhood across the region.
The coalition that has brought together the GNA, Turkey, Qatar represents an attempt to
bring together those forces that have opposed military rule, some Islamist element.
And political Islam has also been an important component, but not the only one.
You also have European countries like France and Italy backing opposing sides, each saying
they want stability in the region.
But regardless of intention, all of this has led to a feeling that this isn't really about
Libyans and their future.
Sometimes people question whether what we have in Libya is actually a civil war or an
international war that's being fought on Libyan soil and in Libyan skies.
The rivalry between the two administrations reached a head in 2019 when Haftar tried but
failed to conquer Tripoli.
The country has been at a chaotic impasse ever since.
International focus is often on Libya’s fate as a battleground for regional proxy
warfare.
Many Libyan people feel they don’t have a seat at the table.
We have now gotten to a point where what Libyans think or what the aspirations of the Libyan
people are have become irrelevant because of the level of foreign interference in this
country.
Meanwhile daily life in Libya is hard and is getting worse.
I have family there.
I have friends there located on almost all the geographic locations
I wouldn’t say that they want the same thing institutionally speaking or that they have
the same views over legitimacy but mostly what the Libyan people want is roughly what
every citizen in this world wants: good governance, sustainable authorities, employment opportunities,
some freedom of expression.
They overthrew the regime before.
If neither of the two administrations which claim legitimacy fail to improve their lives,
might the Libyan people have the courage to challenge both of them?
We have seen some genuine videos of mothers, of young people coming out on the streets
and airing these grievances deteriorating living conditions, of insecurity, of young
people being taken to war or leaving the country on boats to Europe.
This is an indication that people or the citizens might have a certain threshold that if that
is crossed, then they will come out on the streets.