Lebanon sits on the brink of a complete and catastrophic collapse.
With the World Bank suggesting that it may become
one of the worst economic crises of the past two centuries,
even the UN Secretary-General has stepped in to call for urgent action to avert disaster.
So, how did the country get into such a mess? And why does it matter?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflicts and the origins of countries.
Failed states are an important phenomenon in international relations.
Many of the most serious sources of instability - conflict,
terrorism, organised crime and poverty - are associated with state collapse.
Most usually, when we think of failed states,
we think of a country destroyed by war or serious civil unrest.
But sometimes a catastrophic failure can be caused by other problems, such as economic collapse.
One of the most interesting and important examples on the international stage is Lebanon.
Since 2019 it has suffered a financial meltdown
that's seen the country's economy shrink by almost 40 percent.
The currency has collapsed, inflation and unemployment have skyrocketed,
and it's estimated that over 80 percent of the population now live below the poverty line.
Indeed, the situation is now so serious that there are very real
worries that the country may be on the verge of complete failure.
Lebanon sits at the far eastern end of the Mediterranean.
To its north and east is Syria. To its south is Israel.
At 10,500 square kilometres, 4,000 square miles,
is the 161st largest of the 193 members of the United Nations.
According to the most recent data available, around 65 percent of the population is Muslim.
This is made up of a roughly equal balance between Sunni and Shia.
Meanwhile, Christians, once the majority, now account for around 34 of the population.
Of these, the Maronites, who are affiliated to the Catholic Church, are the largest group.
And it's this complex religious situation that forms the backdrop for the country's problems.
Lebanon has a fascinating history stretching back thousands of years.
A major trading hub of the ancient world, it would later come under Muslim Arab and
then Crusader rule before being conquered by the Ottoman Empire in the 16th century.
However, for our purposes, the story really starts during the First World War.
As plans were made to divide the Ottoman Middle East,
it was agreed that while Britain would take control of Palestine, Jordan and Iraq,
France would take control of Syria, which at the time included present-day Lebanon.
This was confirmed in 1920 when France was awarded a
League of Nations mandate over Syria and Lebanon.
At this point, Lebanon was separated from Syria much to the lingering resentment of
many in Syria, who continued to regard the area as part of Greater Syria.
Crucially, the new state of Greater Lebanon stretched
beyond the predominantly Christian area of Mount Lebanon, incorporating Muslim
areas to the north and south and the Shia Muslim-dominated Bekaa Valley, to the east.
In 1926, although still formally under French rule,
a new constitution was introduced and it became the Republic of Lebanon.
This lasted until 1943 when, at the height of the Second World War,
the country declared independence.
At this point, the country's main religious groups reached
an unwritten understanding - the National Pact.
To preserve the religious balance of power in the country, the president would always be a Maronite
Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament a Shia Muslim.
Additionally, the parliament was divided on a 6:5 ratio between Christians and Muslims.
Following the Second World War, Lebanon became a founder member of
the United Nations and in the years that followed became increasingly prosperous.
While it had few of the natural resources of other Arab states, it used its traditional trading links
and its ties to Europe to establish itself as an important commercial and cultural hub.
However, in 1958 the first major problems emerged.
Against the backdrop of growing pan-Arabism, many Sunni Muslims called for the country to
join the newly created United Arab Republic - the union between Syria and Egypt.
Following protests, the Lebanese president called for US
intervention to help preserve the country's independence.
While things soon appeared to settle down,
the country now became increasingly affected by the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Following the 1967 Six Day War, which saw Israel take control of the Gaza Strip and West Bank
,tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees fled to Lebanon; joining 100,000 or so who
had arrived in 1948, following the partition of Palestine and the establishment of Israel.
As well as shifting the religious balance in the country, Palestinian groups - including the PLO,
which established its base in Lebanon after it was forced out of Jordan in
1971 - began to launch attacks against Israel from Lebanon's southern border.
This would all come to a head in 1975 after fighting broke out between Palestinians and
Christians and the country descended into a brutal and complex civil war.
The following year, at the request of the Christian president,
Syria stepped in to fight the Palestinian militias.
Then, in 1978, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to try to curb Palestinian attacks.
In 1982, the war escalated dramatically when Israel launched a new campaign.
Battling the Syrian army, Israeli forces pushed all the way up to the capital, Beirut.
All the while, fierce fighting continued between the country's multitude of militias.
In 1989, after 15 years of fighting, the conflict finally came to an end.
Under the terms the National Reconciliation Accord, better known as the Taif Agreement,
Syrian and Israeli forces would withdraw, the militias would disband,
and important constitutional changes would be introduced.
In the period following the civil war, the country seemed to be on the path to recovery.
Under the leadership of the post-war prime minister,
Rafik Hariri, the country began to rebuild.
However, serious problems remained.
These included the continued Israeli presence in the south, the continued
presence of Iranian-backed Hezbollah, and Syria's continued control over the country.
While Israel eventually withdrew in May 2000, the Syrian presence remained strong until,
on 14 February 2005, Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb.
In the wake of massive demonstrations, as people blamed Syria for the murder,
Damascus withdrew its troops two months later.
Despite this. Syria would remain a decisive factor in Lebanon through its links to Hezbollah.
But Syria would also have a profound effect in another way.
The start of the Syrian Civil War, in 2011,
would eventually see over a million Syrians flee to Lebanon.
With almost a quarter of the population made up of refugees - the highest proportion
in the world - this would put an intolerable strain on the country,
which was already under growing financial pressure.
Matters would eventually come to a head in mid-2019.
Having built up massive debts during reconstruction,
the country was now unable to repay its loans.
As the government tried to impose new taxes to make up the shortfalls, protests erupted.
In the face of growing instability, foreign exchange inflows dried up,
banks were unable to pay depositors and a financial crisis ensued.
Over the course of the following months, the situation worsened dramatically.
As well as the strain from the Covid pandemic, in August 2020
Lebanon was shaken by an enormous explosion at the Beirut Port.
As well as killing over 200 people, injuring 6,000 and leaving 300,000 homeless, it is estimated to
have cost the country between 8 and 15 billion dollars and left 70,000 people without work.
In the meantime, the country's government has been wholly incapable of fixing the mess.
A new cabinet put in place in September 2021 hasn't met for months and efforts to address the
situation have been hampered by the country's deep-rooted corruption and vested interests.
The cumulative effects of all of this have been catastrophic.
The World Bank even went as far as to say that the Lebanon financial and economic crisis is likely to
rank in the top 10 possibly top three most severe episodes globally since the mid-19th century.
And even the UN Secretary-General has stepped in to try to address the situation.
Visiting the country in December 2021, Guterres called for urgent action to solve the crisis.
So, why does all this matter?
First, there's the human cost.
Lebanon faces a humanitarian catastrophe.
As well as the widespread poverty,
which means that people are unable to afford basics, such as food and fuel,
the state is increasingly struggling to provide even essential services for its citizens.
Hospitals lack provisions, public services are limited,
transport is too costly for most people, and streets remain full of rubbish.
Naturally, this raises concern about civil disorder.
With such a brutal economic collapse, people have become increasingly desperate.
As well as mass protests, crime has risen dramatically.
And there are signs of growing tensions across society.
This obviously raises the prospect of a return to conflict.
Indeed, there have already been some worrying signals to this end.
In October 2021, six people were killed in Shia-Christian gunfights in Beirut.
On top of all this, there's the Hezbollah factor.
In recent years, the group - which has been designated the terrorist organisation by
the United States, the European Union and many Arab States - has gained ground in the country.
As well as establishing its own state within a state, and having become one of the most heavily
armed non-state actors in the world, it has seats in parliament, ministers in government,
and now exerts control over many Lebanese institutions.
This has led some to argue that it may even try to take over the country completely.
If that were to happen, the implications would be huge.
Leaving aside the internal effects that this could have,
there would be a very real danger of a major confrontation with Israel.
State failure is an important subject in international relations.
However, while we think of it as being the result of conflict or civil unrest,
it can be caused by other factors, such as a catastrophic economic collapse.
Lebanon is an important case in point.
The problem is that complete state collapse in Lebanon,
while a humanitarian disaster in its own right, carries with it worrying wider consequences.
There are genuine fears that it could lead to a new conflict in the country, or even provide
an opportunity for Hezbollah to seize control, thus raising the chances of a war with Israel.
In the meantime, the fact that both the World Bank and the United Nations have raised the alert
about the country should be an indication of just how serious the situation in Lebanon really is.
I hope you found that interesting. If so, here are some more videos that you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.