Vladimir Putin's Russia has finally attacked Ukraine.
The final strategy, the latest phase in this reckless operation, was launched by welcoming
two new countries onto the global political chessboard.
Or at least on Russia’s version of the world map.
On Monday 21 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognising the independence
of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine.
And that is not all:
The Russian president also ordered his defense minister to immediately deploy the Russian
army to these two new republics to carry out a "peacekeeping operation".
Which, of course, coming from Putin’s mouth, meant anything but peace.
It did not take long to see the consequences.
In fact, along the same lines, the Russian government itself has sent the defense and
security treaties reached with the new People's Republics to the Duma for ratification.
We have witnessed the grand moves that Moscow is so fond of.
Here on VisualPolitik we have already told you how this move, the full recognition of
the independence of these two "republics" was more than likely.
It is a move that is part of Moscow's usual playbook and something we have already seen
in the cases of Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Yet the deployment of Russian troops in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's
Republics marked the first formal incursion of Russian troops into legally Ukrainian territory
and is a blatant violation of the Minsk 2 agreements.
It was a prelude to the attacks that soon followed.
At first the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, claimed that this move, although
it was a clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and the Minsk 2 agreements, had simply 'legalized'
the activity that the Russian army had been carrying out in the region since 2014.
Ukraine later decreed a state of alarm, mobilized thousands of reservists and launched preparations
to try to cope with an invasion.
This is the reality that everyone more or less knew, that Moscow denied and that is
now alarming because it has been confirmed.
Especially considering how Russia has surrounded Ukraine by land, sea and air:
Be that as it may, the point, VisualPolitik viewers, is that this whole situation raises
a few questions:
What has been happening in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and
what conclusions can we draw?
And perhaps the most important question of all:
What exactly do these republics look like and what do they tell us about the future
of occupied Ukraine?
Well, let's take a look.
(THE NEW PEOPLE'S REPUBLICS)
Since their self-proclaimed independence in 2014, the new republics have been almost completely
isolated from the rest of Ukraine.
Well, from the rest of Ukraine and practically the whole world, with the exception, of course,
of Russia.
Over the years, they have formed one of the most opaque, closed and militarized territories
on the planet.
But to find out how they have fared, let us first take a look at a few basic facts to
help us get our bearings.
Until Russia unleashed the storm on 24 February 2022, the Donetsk People's Republic was about
3,400 square miles (8,900 square kilometers) and had about 2.3 million inhabitants.
This man you see on the screen, Denis Pushilin, who was part of a huge pyramid scheme in Russia
and Ukraine, is its leader.
The Luhansk People's Republic was about 3,200 square miles (8,300 square kilometers) and
had 1.6 million inhabitants.
In total we are talking about 6,680 square miles (17,300 square kilometers), the equivalent
of the area of Kuwait or Swaziland and 3.9 million inhabitants.
Although the actual population may have been much lower.
Let's just say that it is difficult to pinpoint due to the huge population displacements caused
by the conflict that began in 2014.
The year that gave shape to these two new republics.
On 22 February 2014, the then president of Ukraine and Moscow ally, Viktor Yanukovych,
fled the capital and left office as a result of the protests triggered by the Euromaidan
revolution.
And that, right there, is when the storm began.
Russia responded to the Euromaidan revolution by annexing Crimea with the famous men in
green and fuelling the uprising in the east of the country.
However, while the seizure of Crimea was clean, the uprisings in eastern Ukraine were nothing
short of chaotic.
The protests in Donetsk and Luhansk soon gave way to an armed conflict between Ukraine's
new government and local militias backed by Moscow.
Initially the pro-Russian rebels advanced quickly and took control of almost all of
the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
However, the counter-attack by the Ukrainian army and particularly the volunteer battalions,
forced Russia to send in tanks, anti-aircraft batteries and long-range artillery to stop
the offensive and force Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and sign the Minsk 2 agreements.
From then until 2022, the front line remained more or less stable.
The Minsk 2 agreements were an attempt to end the conflict.
Pushed forward by France and Germany with skepticism from the US, the agreement recognised
Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for Kiev granting the rebel regions a special autonomous
status.
Of course, the definitions were vague and in the end neither side kept its word.
What’s more, the conflict never actually ended.
Sniper fire and artillery exchanges were constant on both sides.
In total, the conflict is estimated to have claimed between 14,000 and 20,000 lives, as
well as displacing at least two million people.
In other words, the Minsk 2 agreements were another one of those verbose European operations
full of good intentions but which, when it comes down to it, nobody really believes in,
not even the signatories themselves.
This is how the new people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk came into being.
Two republics living in a state of permanent virtual war.
Institutions were assaulted; an ultra-nationalist, conservative and militarized model was imposed;
and many, if not most, of the large enterprises and productive assets, such as mines or steel
mills, were expropriated or put at the disposal of oligarchs friendly to Moscow.
Take, for example, the case of Yevgeni Yurchenko, a Russian investor who now controls the most
valuable assets.
And yes, they also established a heavy-handed political-police model.
("They’ve managed to rebuild a Soviet system in the occupied territories, and not the Soviet
system of the 1960s and 1970s, but the Soviet system of the 1930s and 1940s, with dungeons,
with torture chambers, a system where lives are ruined if you dare to write or say anything
negative about these republics and their authorities".
(Stanislav Aseev, novelist and journalist from Donetsk)
This had been one of the most developed territories in the whole of Ukraine.
Of course, as you can imagine, all this has had consequences.
Listen up.
(THE RUIN)
Today it seems hard to believe, but just a decade ago, Donetsk was one of the most important
venues of the European Soccer Championship, Euro 2012.
A high-profile sporting event that was hosted by Ukraine and Poland.
To host the competition, the city spruced itself up: much of the city was restored,
a new airport was built, roads were repaired and shiny new hotels were opened.
Nor was this so unusual.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions formed the so-called rust belt, the economic engine of
the whole of Ukraine, an important mining and industrial enclave.
Home to the country's largest steel mills.
And not only that.
Donetsk was also the home and main headquarters for the empire of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's
richest man, a billionaire whose fortune Forbes estimates at around $7 billion.
Nevertheless, the fact is that today all that is behind us.
Infrastructure is in tatters, mobile phone and internet service is patchy at best, economic
activity has collapsed, jobs have disappeared and about half, I would say half the population
could have emigrated to the rest of Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere in Europe, particularly
Poland.
And of course, international companies and chains have closed their doors tight.
("There used to be a lot of enthusiasm for the Donetsk People's Republic in the beginning,
everyone was chanting DPR, DPR, DPR!
Now, there is just a lot of disappointment.
[...] The economy there has collapsed, the jobs are gone.
There is nothing good there.
Oleksandr Gayevoy, exile from Donetsk region)
Today these two republics have become very, very poor territories.
Two regions that basically survive on smuggling and Russian funding.
In fact, they are all Russian: the official currency is the ruble, their citizens are
issued Russian passports, they have access to Russian social benefits, and their leaders
have joined Putin's political party.
- So it seems independence is a bit of a joke.
Perhaps we can talk about autonomy at most.
What’s more, the future does not look bright.
Without international recognition, investment and trade will be very difficult.
To make matters worse, following Russia's recognition of the two regions’ independence,
President Joe Biden has banned any US company, entity or citizen from engaging directly or
indirectly in investment projects, exports, imports, financing or any other business dealings
with these territories.
Many other countries around the world, from Canada to Australia to the European Union,
are doing the same.
Donetsk and Luhansk have been cut off from the international community.
What was until recently the most prosperous place in Ukraine is now a huge ruin.
Interestingly, it was the Ukrainian cities in the Donbass that benefited the most.
We are talking about cities that in the last few years have received a lot of workers and
entrepreneurs from Russian-controlled areas.
This is, for example, the case of Kharkov, Ukraine's second most populous city.
A city that, historically, has been closely linked to Russia and was one of the Soviet
Union's main centers of military production.
A city that pro-Russian rebels briefly occupied in 2014 until they were driven out by a Ukrainian
army rapid action force.
We are talking about a city where it is estimated that, back in 2014, barely a third of the
population was loyal to the Ukrainian government.
A percentage that by the beginning of 2022 was estimated to have risen to over 70 per
cent, thanks precisely to the difference in economic development compared to the territories
in the hands of the pro-Russian rebels.
Of course, all this did not bother the Russian leader in the slightest.
But yes, I think we can say that one of Moscow's greatest enemies is precisely the lack of
future in its model.
Given the state of affairs in Russia itself, how can the Ukrainians not look to the West?
They did, do and will continue to do so.
It goes without saying.
The fact is that Russia's recognition of the two People's Republics set alarm bells ringing.
And it did so because of one detail:
Look at this map.
On it you can see the territory that the People's Republics controlled in the darker color.
And in lighter color the territory they claimed.
(Russia Backs Ukraine Separatists' Full Territorial Claims.
The Moscow Times)
The perfect excuse for Moscow.
Unsurprisingly, the consequences were not long in coming.
It was the beginning of the Western reaction:
(22 February: Joe Biden imposes wave of sanctions on Russia for Ukraine 'invasion'.
US president targets elites, some banks and sovereign debt and says more measures will
follow if Putin advances.
FT)
(Australia, Canada, Japan impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine crisis.
The Hill)
It seems, VisualPolitik fans, that the experiences of Donetsk and Luhansk do not allow us to
be optimistic about the future of the Ukrainians.
And neither, mind you, for the Russians themselves: they will gain nothing and lose a lot.
That’s in addition, of course, to resounding international condemnation.
("We have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified
Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.
…Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise
counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations".
Bathsheba Nell Crocker, US Representative to the United Nations)
But having got this far, it's your turn:
How do you think events will unfold, and will the intervention in these two self-proclaimed
people's republics be a prelude to wider action?
Leave us your answer below in the comments and if you found this video interesting don't
forget to like it.
We will be talking about the Georgia case in detail very soon, so don't forget to subscribe
if you haven't already done so.
All the best and see you next time.