Football goals have barely changed in shape or size in over 150 years.
In a smoky London tavern in 1863, the newly-formed Football Association dictated the distance
between posts should be eight yards
Crossbars, marked eight foot above ground, didn’t become mandatory until 1882 with
both Sheffield FC and Queens Park simultaneously boasting to be the first club to install them.
They were controversial from the start.
In 1888, Kensington Swifts were disqualified for erecting two different sized goals in
an FA Cup tie with Crewe Alexandra.
And a year later, Sheffield United’s 24 stone goalkeeper William ‘Fatty’ Foulke
broke his bar by over-zealously swinging on it.
The first net was used at The Kennington Oval in 1891 as Blackburn Rovers beat Notts County
[3-1] to win the FA Cup.
And football has since seen goal frames evolve from wood to aluminium, but the dimensions
between the sticks have never altered or even been significantly scrutinised.
This is surprising considering there was little or no science behind the goal’s size.
Goals most likely originated from those found in the Chinese sport of kickball.
Zuqui, as it’s known today, hit its peak during the Song Dynasty [960-1279] and was
played with 33-foot high goals with a one-foot hole in the centre
and coloured rope nets.
Scorers were rewarded with drum rolls and sometimes wine
. The first written reference to goals came
from Cornish hurling in 1602.
Historian Richard Carew described them as the space between two bushes about 10 feet
apart.
Both these formative frames, in sports similar to football, were bigger than our modern ones.
Yet it took until 1996 to seriously question the size of goals.
Now disgraced ex-FIFA president Sepp Blatter called for their diameter to be widened by
50cm – or as he put it, “two footballs” – and for their height to be increased by
25cm.
But uproar ensued and the plan was shelved prior to any serious
debate.
But were bigger goals really such a bad idea?
The average height of a man in 1863 was 5 foot 5 inches.
Today it’s 5’9.
Of course, goalkeepers have, and always will, tower above these numbers.
Based on available data, the average keeper height in English top-flight football in 1863
was 5’10.
By 1980, keepers had crept up to six-foot and they now stand around 6’3.
. The Bundesliga and Ligue 1 also field tall
keepers, but intriguingly Serie A and LaLiga prefer their shot-stoppers slightly shorter.
José René Higuita – famous for his sensational scorpion-kick save against England in 1995
– Sergio Alvarez, David Ospina, Claudio Bravo, and Marc-Andre ter Stegen are just
some examples of keepers with stints in Spain or Italy who are well below 6’3.
Superficially, the rise of colossal keepers does correlate with a decline in goals.
Between 1863 and 1980 – when 6ft keepers first became commonplace – the average number
of goals per game in the English top flight was 3.42.
That number has since dropped to 2.65.
The pattern is the same in Europe’s other big leagues.
Once the average keeper height surpassed six foot in France [1984], Germany [1984], Italy
[1982] and Spain [1981] – all at slightly different times – average goals per game
also declined.
So (at face value) it seems the days of Everton’s Dixie Dean scoring 60 league goals in single
season are over.
And we will probably never see another tournament like the 1954 World Cup in Switzerland, where
there was an average of over five goals per game , including a 7-5 thriller as the hosts
lost to Austria in the quarter-finals.
The goalkeepers present had an average height of 5,11, with England’s (No.2) Ted Burgin
just 5’7.
In contrast, there was a record-low 115 goals at Italia ’90 and the average keeper there
was closer to 6’2.
These stats suggest bigger keepers must be housed in bigger goals or the decline in scoring
will continue.
But here’s the twist.
By digging a little deeper, it actually reveals short keepers aren’t at a disadvantage and
in fact concede less than very tall ones.
Last season, across Europe’s big five leagues, goalkeepers saved around seven out of 10 shots
on target.
But keepers 6’1 and under performed above-average], while those over 6’4 had a strikingly poorer
record.
Bournemouth’s Asmir Begovic conceded a goal for almost every save he made, while Dijon’s
Bobby Allain saved an average of nearly four shots [before being beaten.
Other short keepers who outperformed taller ones include Deportivo Alaves’
Fernando Pacheco and Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak.
Real Madrid’s Thibaut Courtois and Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer had below-par seasons,
with the German shipping 22 goals in just 26 appearances.
Of course, there are lots of variables that warp these stats.
After all, goalies might be the last gatekeeper, but they are still reliant on the defenders
in front of them.
They are not at fault for every goal, nor is every save is equal.
The stats may count each save as so, but a full-stretch fingertip around the post to
prevent a sure fire goal is clearly more valuable than countless simple stops.
But the plot nonetheless thickens when different areas of the goal are isolated.
Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, 61 percent of the 26,786 goals scored
occurred in the bottom corners with a far smaller percentage in the top ones.
Keepers 6’4 and over – presumably struggling to get down in time despite their longer reach
– conceded 2,414 more goals than ones 6’1 and under in the bottom corners.
And, as you might expect, smaller goalies struggled up high, conceding 696 more times.
The Premier League’s worst keepers (with more than 20 appearances) at defending the
bottom corners are ex-Arsenal, Aston Villa and Reading goalie Stuart Taylor [and former
Wolves and current Crystal Palace No.1 Wayne Hennessey
. The truth is, you could just as easily argue
that if keepers continue to rise, but can’t get down low quick enough, then goals should
actually be smaller .
Women’s football further backs up that shorter goalkeepers are not at a disadvantage.
The average keeper height at this summer’s Women’s World Cup was 5’7.
England’s Karen Bardsley was the tallest and Brazil’s Aline Villares Reis the shortest
. The 52 games in France averaged 2.81 goals [146 goals scored], the same tally as in Canada
four years earlier.
13 came in one gameas Megan Rapinoe’s USA thrashed Thailand.
The other 51 games saw 2.61 goals, a figure in keeping with the
men at Russia 2018.
So if size doesn’t really matter, what, other than better defending,is actually causing
this scoring decline?
Firstly, it’s important to note that goal tallies have always fluctuated, so the averages
should not be taken out of context.
Using England’s top-flight as a case study, the average currently sits well below three,
which is historically quite low, but the most popular scorelines since 1863 are still 1-0
and 1-1.
They account for over 20 percent of all results.
2-1 and 0-0 are also very common.
Temporary goal spikes – or more recently lulls – which distort the overall average
are often triggered by rule changes.
In 1925, FIFA amended the offside rule allowing two not three
players to be between an attacker and the goal.
There was an instant and dramatic increase in scoring from over two to almost four goals
per game.
By 1958, substitutions were introduced, originally for injured players only, and goals started
drying up in the decade that followed, perhaps because there were eleven fit players on the
field.
Ever-changing tactics also affect scoring.
In 1981 wins were rewarded with three points instead of two.
There was suddenly more incentive to attack and this led to a temporary surge in goals.
Since then it’s possible the opposite has happened and top teams who score first park
the bus a bit more.
Elite defenders are trusted more than ever and winning is simply more important than
entertaining.
Of course, there are obvious exceptions.
Manchester City won the 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 Premier League titles scoring a combined total
of 208 goals.
Chelsea also hit a century of goals in 2009-2010.
But Manchester United won the inaugural Premier League crown with just 67 goals, Arsenal’s
Invincibles may have gone unbeaten but scored only 73 times and Leicester City’s miracle
title win was masterminded by defenders Wes Morgan and Robert Huth and a counter-attacking
style, with only 68 goals at the other end.
Going forwards, it will be intriguing to see whether the use of video assistant referees
(VAR) changers the scoring equilibrium.
Either way technology, other rules changes and ever-evolving tactics are clearly affecting
scoring.
But as for our goal frames, whether through luck or judgement, they have remained the
perfect size for both sexes since the very start.
Making them bigger would obviously restore the original intended ratio between goal size
and keeper height, but it wouldn’t necessarily lead to an increase in scoring.