Elizabeth Economy: Maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas are a pressing matter
for the United States, China, and much of the rest of the world. It is a region that
is rich in natural resources; home to many of the world's most dynamic economies; and
an important global trade route for the energy supplies and other goods. It is also a region
in which power politics are at play and defense budgets are rising rapidly.
China claims roughly 90 percent of the total area of the South China Sea. This area includes the Paracels
and Spratly islands chains, which both Vietnam and the Philippines lay claim to. In addition,
the Philippines and China both lay claim to the Scarborough Shoal. Malaysia and Brunei
also claim maritime territory in the South China Sea.
A similar dispute takes place in the East China Sea, which encompasses the Diaoyu or
Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Japan.
Xi Jinping, Vice President of China: We are strongly committed to safeguarding the country's
sovereignty and security, and defending our territorial integrity. We are committed to
resolving differences with neighbours concerning territorial land, territorial sea, and maritime
rights and interests, peacefully through friendly negotiations.
Richard Haas: After decades in which the history of this part of the world has been dominated
by economic issues, we're beginning to see the re-emergence of geopolitical concerns,
of competition, of nationalism.
And the real question is: can the diplomacy of the Asia Pacific region handle these new pressures?
If we begin to see the tectonic plates really moving, the danger is that twenty-first century Asia
could begin to go the way of twentieth century Europe.
Shen Dingli: South China Sea and East China Sea, they are different. For East China Sea
it's more political. China considers that we have been invaded by Japan and Japan stole
our island. But for South China Sea, largely it's about economics: fishery and seabed.
It has something to do with China's sustainable development. So, economics empowers China's
international status.
Benigno Aquino III, Philippine President: We're not going to engage in an arms race
with them. We are not going to escalate the tensions there but we do have to protect our
rights and that has to be very very clear, we will not be pushed around because we are
a tiny state compared with theirs.
Sheila Smith: Japan is a very powerful country and yet even it worries about China's rise.
It is increasingly worried about Chinese willingness to solve some of these problems together with
Japan through diplomatic compromise.
Shinzo Abe, Japanese Prime Minister: The environment surrounding our nation is getting more severe.
We will take every measure to promote and manage and we will give our best efforts to
guard the remote islands at the borders. Under this administration, we vow to protect our
nationals' lives, treasure, territorial land, territorial waters and territorial skies.
Sheila Smith: This escalatory path is very recent. It's changed in large part because
of popular sensitivities to the sovereignty dispute, some political opportunism on the
part of political leaders. But also now you see the Chinese maritime interests in the
region, are becoming much more active.
Simon Tay: I think at the heart of these issues are Chinese nationalism and a sense of wounding
from the past, and the projection forward that as it rises economically, there is a
larger place for China in the world and the immediate region around them. But it's not
really accepted by many others in Asia. So I think this is creating the overall climate
of distrust in which these tensions at sea -- these tensions at sea become much
more than just about little rocks.
Barack Obama: The United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the
Asia Pacific region. The Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that's
creating jobs and opportunity for the American people.
Elizabeth Economy: I think the United States was eager to re-engage with a region that
was so economically dynamic. And at the same time, I think the pivot was really a response
to others in the region who called for the United States to reassert its presence in
the Asia-Pacific because they were concerned about China's rise.
Richard Haass: The dilemma facing U.S. foreign policy is nothing short of exquisite. What
we have to do is be sufficiently supportive of our friends and allies so they don't go
their own way. But we can't be so supportive of them to give them a blank check so to speak
so they actually then begin to act recklessly.
Elizabeth Economy: My greatest fear is that the small mishap is going to blow up into
something much bigger because of the distrust, because of the lack of shared rules of the
road, and the inability to define the territorial boundaries.
Sheila Smith: If there is a use of force between Japan and China, this could be
all out conflict between these two Asian giants. And as a treaty ally of Japan, will automatically
involve the United States.
Elizabeth Economy: There are a number of preventive measures that have been discussed for a number
of years: the joint sharing of resources, fisheries or oil and gas, joint military exercises,
a multilateral binding code of conduct. And then there's international arbitration.
These maritime disputes suggest that China's rise is not going to be without its frictions,
that in many instances China feels that its economic throw weight really does give it
a greater stance and a greater ability to assert its interests, in some cases to reform
norms, and in some cases to upend them. And I think that it's going to require a lot of
U.S. diplomatic skill as well as efforts by others within the region to maintain their
own interests as well as to find room to cooperate with China.