Timo Werner is an elite forward. When he joins Chelsea, someone will miss out. But who?
Werner’s attacking output is excellent: in Europe’s top five leagues this season,
he’s third overall for goals, and also for goals plus assists.
Werner is also in the top ten for a number of other key attacking metrics:
Chelsea are securing one of Europe’s best strikers in Werner and so it makes sense to
play him as one. Tammy Abraham is a top ten player in only one of these metrics: non-penalty
xG per 90. In some ways, that’s the most helpful indicator of overall quality, but
he’s still behind Werner.
Chelsea’s 4-3-3 can only accommodate one striker. Werner has been used this season
as a slightly deeper forward in a front two, often working in the inside left channel and
running at defences from further back or involving himself in link-up play. He is now a more
effective all-rounder than he was last season, while still scoring at a phenomenal rate.
Abraham would offer a different proposition off the bench, too. He’s hugely gifted in
the box, but less quick, more physical. His goals are often the result of crosses, where
his penalty box movement and finishing stand out and it could be beneficial to Chelsea
to have such a capable Plan B.
But Frank Lampard has expressed a desire to use both players, and Abraham *is* a good
player, capable of performing at least some of Yussuf Poulsen’s aerial role in creating
space for and playing in Werner.
Should Lampard go with Werner and Abraham, one option is to play Werner on the left.
He’s naturally right-footed, though he can and does score and create with his left. But
given how he plays as a striker in a two-man pairing, playing Werner as a left inside forward
makes sense, especially with Hakim Ziyech likely playing from the right from next season.
Werner could work well in the same inside left channel, starting wider, drifting in
field, and then either running at the defence before crossing or shooting.
Werner has added a more creative side to his game this season under Nagelsmann: his assists
per 90 and expected assists per 90 are third and fifth respectively in RBL’s squad.
But the player he’d ease out, Christian Pulisic, has been quietly important to Chelsea
this season. Pulisic’s xG Chain per 90, a per 90 measure of xG value of unique open
play shot or goal ending sequences that a player was involved in, is second best in
Chelsea’s squad. It’s worth noting that Abraham is in the top five too.
He’s also scored at 0.42 goals per 90 and assisted at 0.17 per 90. Pulisic is a dynamic
dribbler who either looks to push wide before playing the ball across, or cut inside to
play a through ball, link with Abraham, or shoot.
Werner could do much of what Pulisic already does, and perhaps better. But Pulisic is only
21 and can improve markedly. Chelsea also lack depth and variety at left wing. That
could be an argument for playing Werner there with Pulisic as a back-up, but it would give
Chelsea flexibility in the same way as playing Werner as a striker, with Abraham coming off
the bench.
The last option is for Chelsea to ditch the lone striker, either in a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1, and play a two-man striking team of Werner
and Abraham. They would likely complement each other well and Werner is more effective
as a striker in a pair than alone. For the German national side, he doesn’t play as
part of a pair and, while the sample size is limited and national teams have less time
to gel, he’s clearly less effective. Chelsea could field an RB Leipzig style 4-4-2
or midfield diamond with the players they currently have.
But Jorginho has shown he doesn’t work well in a double pivot, requiring the security
of two flanking midfielders to help him defend. N’Golo Kante and Mateo Kovacic would likely
be the first-choice pairing: a busy, high energy presser and a press-breaking dribbler
with a good range of passing. This is the least likely option, because such
a seismic formation change to get the most out of one player is unusual, but a Werner
and Abraham pairing might just be worth the difficulty.