Mhm Well, welcome back everybody some political news
this morning. Four states, of course went to the polls
yesterday for their primaries, voters and political
professionals now wondering whether democrats can hold
on to control of the House and maintain it's of cour
very precarious margin there in the Senate. As the GOP
launches an aggressive campaign flip a whole lot of
seats nationwide. One of North Dakota's Senate seats is
seen as up for grabs from the november general elect
Democrat katarina Christiansen won her primary battle
and will now face incumbent Republican john Hovan
was endorsed by former president trump, is setting up
another big race for a trump endorsed candidate in
south Carolina. The voters have chosen their nominees
for governor. Former Democratic congressman joe
Cunningham, one that party's nomination for governor
defeating Mia McLeod Cunningham will now go up against
trump endorsed incumbent governor Henry McMaster, who
is also in the middle of the abortion debate. As we
await the roe v wade decision and he says reminder
Supreme Court expected to release some decisions. We
don't know which ones, but that road decision excuse me,
could come as early as today to be clear. Last year,
McMaster signed the fetal heartbeat bill into law which
bans most abortions after a fetal heartbeat has been
detected. That's typically arou six weeks, making it
one of the most restrictive anti abortion laws
America. And joining us to add inside to the latest
primary results is Michael Traugott, professor of the
Center for Political Studies at the University of
michigan professor, thank you s much for joining us a
lot to unpack here because we're obviously looking
trump's um influence on the Republican Party. I want to
talk first about the The South Carolina's 7th House
District incumbent, Tom Rice, who voted to impeach
trump, lost to a trump back opponent, Russell fry. And
then of course, there's the House district one
incumbent, Macy Mace, who also criticized the former
president after the insurrectio and fended off trump
endorsed candidates. What made the difference in those
races Well, I think in in both races, actually, it was
a pretty good uh, night or day for Donald Trump Katie
Arrington is a relatively weak candidate. She had run
for this office before and lost to a democrat with the
trump endorsement. She got back in the race. She
actually got within 8% points of an incumbent nancy
Mace. So, we often count the results as win or lose the
most important feature. Uh This was a relatively good
showing. And then of course, uh in the race involving
uh Tom Rice, uh Russell fry beat him by around 27%
points. That was a very good showing for the trump
endorsed candidate. And of course, it's not just about
the endorsement from the former president. It's also
about the Republican candidates who embrace um this,
this false theory that he had the election stolen from
him. We're seeing this time and time again. In fact,
there is a Washington post analysis saying that more
than 100 GOP primary winners back trump's fraud clai
That was before yesterday's primaries. What does that
tell you about the current state of the GOP and trump's
influence Well, Donald trump is obviously the greatest
force currently in the Republic party. Uh he exerts a
great deal of influence over candidate selection. The
candidates line up to get his endorsement. I would say
one of the most interesting races yesterday was
secretary of state's race in Nevada. It was won by Jim
musharraf who was endorsed by Donald trump. He's an
election denier. One of these people, one of the 100
people that are referred to in the in the Washington
post article. What makes that race stand out to you so
much Well, Nevada is becoming an increasingly
competitive state. It involves a lot of different
factors including how strong the support of Hispanics
remains for the democrats. And so having somebody who
is the chief election administration official of the
state who talks about stolen elections Is very
troublesome with regard to the counting of the votes in
2024. Um, I want to focus now on the Supreme Court. The
roe versus wade decision could be handed down really
any day, possibly even today. What will the road
decision have if it's overturned as those leaked
documents indicate, have, what it have on the fall
elections What type of impact Well, I think I must say
that it's very difficult to judge for the following
reason in in the 2014 midterms, the 2018 midterms. Um
We we had a tremendous mobilization of the democrats,
group that were called never Trumpers. And uh I think
that the road decision is going to mobilize the
democrats. On the other hand, I believe that the
republicans are very energized. They this polls are
showing greater enthusiasm among republicans and
democrats and the notion of taking over uh some or all
of the congress. Either one or both chambers will be a
big mobilization factor for them. So I think
historically uh row is going to result in historically
high turnout in the midterm election. Do you look if
you're looking into your crystal ball and, you know,
all predictions are that the democrats are going to
face a rough midterm elections, whether it's, you kn
um if the roe decision doesn't get their voters out,
there is the issues of inflation, President biden's
handling of that issue. He's not receiving the best
marks on it as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine. You
know, the the inflation issue hitting the pockets of
americans. Where do you see uh democrats standing after
the midterms Well, we have to make a distinction
between the house and the Senate uh in house terms,
historically, the party of the president does poorly in
the midterm off year elections And the only time that
the president's party did well, was in 2002 after
September 11, but um beyond the historical record,
inflation as you indicated is a very important issue.
Uh joe biden's approval ratings are historically low.
And the problems that uh Joe Biden has to deal with
like inflation. The price of gasoline are not really
soluble in the remaining months before the election. So
I think there could be a very large gain among the
republicans uh in the House. The Senate is a different
issue because of course they have these statewide
contests with very visible candidates. And there are
some issues about the selection of Republican
senatorial candidates. I mean, if you think about
people like herschel walker uh in Alabama, um or Mehmet
Oz in pennsylvania, states where they might have
ordinarily had a chance or now at least in doubt. Uh in
in Georgia there's a democratic incumbent, It's an o
race uh in pennsylvania. So the prospects of uh in this
5050 Senate of Republicans taking over I think are
diminished a little bit given these other factors. All
right. Just one clarification, herschel walker
Georgia, not Alabama, but I'm sure that's what you
meant. Yes, that's quite all right, quite all right,
Michael Traugott, professor of the Center for Political
Studies at the University of Michigan. Thank you so
much for your time and your insight. We appreciate goo
to be with you, jay